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Old 04-15-2021, 08:27 AM
 
117 posts, read 129,095 times
Reputation: 70

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this is all anecdotal, but I talk with dozens of homeowners each day in my line of work (marketing for a real estate/mortgage firm) --- the sheer number of homeowners who are willing to relocate to Mexico or inexpensive areas of the country (Kentucky, Arkansas, Nebraska, New Mexico - just to name a few), coupled with the number of younger Boomers and Generation Xers who are tired of the mortgage and rent game and are yearning to enjoy life long-term in an RV or Motor Home, is rather staggering.

I tend to think that there are far more people willing to let their homes go back to the bank than many here would think.
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Old 04-15-2021, 08:31 AM
 
117 posts, read 129,095 times
Reputation: 70
Quote:
Originally Posted by LMC White Collar View Post
Market crashes often lead to swift and significant reductions in home values. Coupled with the fact that the average time for a home purchase loan to be approved and fund/close is approaching 50 days, the chance for a distressed seller to gain as much equity in August or September 2021 as they currently have (April 2021) could in fact be slim.

Thus, a seller who has fallen behind has a good amount of equity today - but when the moratorium is lifted, many still won't be able to catch up and/or get current. Many may try to sell, but if the number of sellers is in fact high, prices will be pushed down by this fact alone.

Well-informed and educated buyers (of which there are many more in 2021 compared to previous cycles of falling home values, thanks to dedicated real estate websites and social media saturation) will push the seller and the seller's agent to lower the price during the 45-50 day timeframe for their home loans to be approved.

I could go on in further detail, but I'd suspect that many here can grasp what I'm leading to: once the moratorium is lifted, there will be a swift and sure "correction" for home values/sale prices.
Further, I'm seeing little overhype/fearmongering (as many in this thread are alluding to) - on the contrary, much of the news I see (from CNBC to Marketwatch to CNN to Fox Business etc..) seems to be bordering on the irrational exuberance that many remember all to clearly from the 2003-2007.
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Old 04-15-2021, 12:11 PM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,154,565 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by LMC White Collar View Post
I could go on in further detail, but I'd suspect that many here can grasp what I'm leading to: once the moratorium is lifted, there will be a swift and sure "correction" for home values/sale prices.
OR, there is so much demand in the RE market that it will quickly be mopped up. i.e. Currently, there are about 2.5M homes that are behind in payments. That number is way down. 6 short months ago, there were 3.7M behind. We could use all of those 2.5M homes. Because there are about 4M short of inventory right now https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-hou...he%20shortfall.

A lot of words to say, don't assume there will be a "swift correction". Meaning, your crystal is rather cloudy as best. I'm not holding my breath that it's going to drop "swift". But if you have a less desirable home that backs up to a busy road, fugly, in rough shape, etc expect the long list of buyers who want your POS home to have more options. That's my take-away. Sales 101. Strong sense of urgency== irritation purchases. There is a lot of irrational buying going on right now. YMMV.

Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 04-15-2021 at 12:21 PM..
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Old 04-15-2021, 04:18 PM
 
45,676 posts, read 23,997,862 times
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They've been saying in the Toronto and Vancouver area for years -- -not sustainable -- and still it marches on.
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Old 04-16-2021, 10:34 AM
 
95 posts, read 163,928 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised View Post
I'm impressed. It sounds like you are the expert we have all been looking for. I don't want to listen to a so-called expert, I want to take advice from someone like you who is one. I assume you are shorting real estate investment trusts or (REITs)? Good luck!
I am not an expert (never implied I was), just someone with a hypothesis. No, I don't short investments, nor do I work in real estate, banking or the like. Nice try though. I have no idea what will actually happen, but perhaps you might given your home state (MN) is the beacon for governance ? I can be sarcastic too...
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Old 04-16-2021, 12:01 PM
 
9,741 posts, read 11,154,565 times
Reputation: 8482
Quote:
Originally Posted by Runnn View Post
I am not an expert (never implied I was), just someone with a hypothesis. No, I don't short investments, nor do I work in real estate, banking or the like. Nice try though. I have no idea what will actually happen, but perhaps you might given your home state (MN) is the beacon for governance ? I can be sarcastic too...
I thought it goes without saying that any predictions go out the window when catastrophic events happen. So in your book, that makes an expert a "so-called" expert?

re: MN. I just happen to live there 1/2 of the year. I'm about 3 hours drive away from Brooklyn Center or MPLS. Make fun of how they govern all that you want. I am sure we agree.
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Old 04-17-2021, 02:19 PM
 
Location: PHX -> ATL
6,311 posts, read 6,806,003 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moneill View Post
They've been saying in the Toronto and Vancouver area for years -- -not sustainable -- and still it marches on.
Because we all need housing, having shelter is a basic human need. That's the problem is that we are treating this well-defined and understood human need more like a want instead.
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Old 04-18-2021, 09:18 AM
 
Location: Gilbert, AZ
1,688 posts, read 1,268,948 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prickly Pear View Post
Because we all need housing, having shelter is a basic human need. That's the problem is that we are treating this well-defined and understood human need more like a want instead.
If you are employed, you should have no issue finding shelter. That being said, you may not be able to afford to live where you choose. Sure, I'd love to live on the beach - doesn't mean I can. So as the Phoenix Metro becomes more desirable and more people move in, some people are just going to be priced out. Simple as that. But there are apartments/home throughout this country that are affordable. So if you can't afford it here, find better employment or move to another state. That's what I would do. If I couldn't afford to live here, I'd be looking to move to a more affordable area of the country.
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Old 04-18-2021, 09:42 AM
 
Location: az
13,690 posts, read 7,976,787 times
Reputation: 9380
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sno0909 View Post
If you are employed, you should have no issue finding shelter. That being said, you may not be able to afford to live where you choose. Sure, I'd love to live on the beach - doesn't mean I can. So as the Phoenix Metro becomes more desirable and more people move in, some people are just going to be priced out. Simple as that. But there are apartments/home throughout this country that are affordable. So if you can't afford it here, find better employment or move to another state. That's what I would do. If I couldn't afford to live here, I'd be looking to move to a more affordable area of the country.
Might take a year to save up enough money but I would consider a move to an area of the country which is more affordable.

When I first started renting properties in the Phx metro (2005) a 3bed/2bath 1500 sq ft. home in East Mesa went for $850-950 tops.

Today the range is $1700 in which case 60 grand gross income (3.5 x rent) is required.

Last edited by john3232; 04-18-2021 at 09:51 AM..
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Old 04-18-2021, 10:05 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,587,616 times
Reputation: 9169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sno0909 View Post
If you are employed, you should have no issue finding shelter. That being said, you may not be able to afford to live where you choose. Sure, I'd love to live on the beach - doesn't mean I can. So as the Phoenix Metro becomes more desirable and more people move in, some people are just going to be priced out. Simple as that. But there are apartments/home throughout this country that are affordable. So if you can't afford it here, find better employment or move to another state. That's what I would do. If I couldn't afford to live here, I'd be looking to move to a more affordable area of the country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by john3232 View Post
Might take a year to save up enough money but I would consider a move to an area of the country which is more affordable.

When I first started renting properties in the Phx metro (2005) a 3bed/2bath 1500 sq ft. home in East Mesa went for $850-950 tops.

Today the range is $1700 in which case 60 grand gross income (3.5 x rent) is required.
If everyone who "couldn't afford it" just moved to flyover country, good luck getting lower paying but necessary jobs filled
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