Phoenix housing market update video (Mesa, Chandler: 2015, apartment, rental market)

[dontbelievehim]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OI_g85Dn5lk

He goes over a lot of markets, but spends a bit of time on Phoenix. Agree with him or not?
Enjoy.

[john3232]

I prefer to follow someone like John Wake:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/61822895-post200.html

With regards to rents: Supply and demand. A lot of people are moving here. In 2015 $1450 might put you in a four bedroom/2 bath Gilbert home. Today you'll be looking in West Mesa.

But how can the less fortunate afford the rent increases we see today? The same way many in other areas of the country: They live with roommates.

[Maroon197]

Originally Posted by john3232

I prefer to follow someone like John Wake:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/61822895-post200.html

But how can the less fortunate afford the rent increases we see today? The same way many in other areas of the country: They live with roommates.

"Less fortunate" is an interesting way to describe people like teachers, social workers, and police dispatchers. Why are people in underpaid, critical roles going to stick it out in a blazing hot arid desert that is running out of water when they could just move to cities that offer infinitely more for the same price? If these people have to live with roommates either way, Phoenix offers almost no advantages over countless other cities across the nation that have culture and, most importantly, water. But hey, I'm sure your quality of life will be great when all of your neighbors are absentee investors.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by Maroon197

"Less fortunate" is an interesting way to describe people like teachers, social workers, and police dispatchers. Why are people in underpaid, critical roles going to stick it out in a blazing hot arid desert that is running out of water when they could just move to cities that offer infinitely more for the same price? If these people have to live with roommates either way, Phoenix offers almost no advantages over countless other cities across the nation that have culture and, most importantly, water. But hey, I'm sure your quality of life will be great when all of your neighbors are absentee investors.

I wouldn't describe them as less fortunate. I'm sure they can afford an apartment or a house . Just not necessarily their first choice of location.


If these people have to live with roommates either way, Phoenix offers almost no advantages over countless other cities across the nation that have culture

In which case they can move to another city and double up there.


But hey, I'm sure your quality of life will be great when all of your neighbors are absentee investors

In the meantime I'll enjoy the rents and property appreciation.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Maroon197

"Less fortunate" is an interesting way to describe people like teachers, social workers, and police dispatchers. Why are people in underpaid, critical roles going to stick it out in a blazing hot arid desert that is running out of water when they could just move to cities that offer infinitely more for the same price? If these people have to live with roommates either way, Phoenix offers almost no advantages over countless other cities across the nation that have culture and, most importantly, water. But hey, I'm sure your quality of life will be great when all of your neighbors are absentee investors.

The average PHX dispatcher makes about $50K. The AZ teacher range ranges from $46K-$76K. And the average licensed clinical social worker makes around $70K. Are you going to make me look it up? Here is one answer and I can supply the other links. https://www.salary.com/research/sala...rker-salary/az

And since you haven't thought about the obvious, their "roommate" is most likely their significant other. You know, another person that is probably working. Why is everything so negative in your world?

[Maroon197]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The average PHX dispatcher makes about $50K. The AZ teacher range ranges from $46K-$76K. And the average licensed clinical social worker makes around $70K. Are you going to make me look it up? Here is one answer and I can supply the other links. https://www.salary.com/research/sala...rker-salary/az

And since you haven't thought about the obvious, their "roommate" is most likely their significant other. You know, another person that is probably working. Why is everything so negative in your world?

A licensed clinical social worker has a masters degree and at least 2 years of post-graduate supervised experience, obtaining no fewer than 2 specialized licenses which require ongoing training and constant renewal. The AVERAGE social worker in Arizona makes less than $40,000 a year. The average teacher salary in Arizona is $48k, which includes long term veteran educators. You're being willfully misleading because you don't like the reality of what i'm saying.

I guarantee your personal lifestyle is almost completely dependent on people who cannot afford these increasing rents - people like janitors/custodians, gas station employees, restaurant cooks, waiters, delivery drivers, grocery store stockers, home health aids, medical receptionists etc etc etc. Do you really see this as a "me vs. them" situation? People should be able to afford the city in which they work. And if they can't, your quality of life is going to go down too.

[DAXhound]

Originally Posted by john3232

I wouldn't describe them as less fortunate. I'm sure they can afford an apartment or a house . Just not necessarily their first choice of location.


If these people have to live with roommates either way, Phoenix offers almost no advantages over countless other cities across the nation that have culture

In which case they can move to another city and double up there.


But hey, I'm sure your quality of life will be great when all of your neighbors are absentee investors

In the meantime I'll enjoy the rents and property appreciation.

And many younger singles would be in that precise scenario of mandatory roommates in any place acceptably cool, and that is really pushing the envelope for Phoenix, especially Downtown..I would say the same for Vegas.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by Maroon197

A licensed clinical social worker has a masters degree and at least 2 years of post-graduate supervised experience, obtaining no fewer than 2 specialized licenses which require ongoing training and constant renewal. The AVERAGE social worker in Arizona makes less than $40,000 a year. The average teacher salary in Arizona is $48k, which includes long term veteran educators. You're being willfully misleading because you don't like the reality of what i'm saying.

I guarantee your personal lifestyle is almost completely dependent on people who cannot afford these increasing rents - people like janitors/custodians, gas station employees, restaurant cooks, waiters, delivery drivers, grocery store stockers, home health aids, medical receptionists etc etc etc. Do you really see this as a "me vs. them" situation? People should be able to afford the city in which they work. And if they can't, your quality of life is going to go down too.

Low wage earners have been living and working in SF for decades. How? By renting out a room and sharing an apartment or house. I don't expect we'll see Filiberto's going out of business anytime soon. Low wage earners aren't going to flee. They will make do the same as they do in other more expensive cities.

Now, what's upsetting for many is the party's over. Inexpensive housing in the Phx metro is a thing of the past. Rundown and less desirable areas like West Mesa are slowing becoming gentrified. People are flocking here. I could see this coming years ago. Despite the natural beauty in many of parts of Cal the state is a mess. Of course those leaving would consider the PHX metro. It's next door.

Originally Posted by DAXhound

And many younger singles would be in that precise scenario of mandatory roommates in any place acceptably cool, and that is really pushing the envelope for Phoenix, especially Downtown..I would say the same for Vegas.

Supply and demand will dictate when rents have reached enough. We won't ever see what we see in NY, SF and other popular cities and that's fine by me. I just need to be comfortable. To be able to keep my homes in top shape. To get $1750-1850 for a 3 bed 2 bath home in Mesa, $2500 for 4 bed 2 bath in gilbert and $2600-2700 for a 4 bed 2 bath home in Chandler.

I'll admit I am surprised at how fast rents have jumped over the past two years... but as the owner of investment properties I've had my share of bad years.

Now, it's time to collect.

[dontbelievehim]

9:25 on the video he shows that Phoenix is more expensive than a bunch of legacy cities for the average worker. These legacy cities are already built up and can't expand much. However, Phoenix still has a ton of space to build on and a ton of infill areas within the metro. I don't see how rents can keep getting higher with all that land available. I doubt Phoenix crashes, but something has to give.
Watch the video

[john3232]

Originally Posted by dontbelievehim

9:25 on the video he shows that Phoenix is more expensive than a bunch of legacy cities for the average worker. These legacy cities are already built up and can't expand much. However, Phoenix still has a ton of space to build on and a ton of infill areas within the metro. I don't see how rents can keep getting higher with all that land available. I doubt Phoenix crashes, but something has to give. Watch the video

If the Phx metro continues to grow expect rents to remain strong. Again nothing like NY, SF or the more desirable cities around the country but rents won't ever be cheap or inexpensive. Those days are gone.

I put three homes on the rental market this year. I could have gotten 2800 for a large Chandler home which rented for 1625 three years ago. However, the applicants would have been three or four working adults and one or two children.

As the former owner of rental property in SF multiply adults (usually 3 although they always **snuck in a fourth) on a lease was standard practice. However, several of my rental properties in AZ have strict HOA rules regarding parking. Tenants with four cars? I can see problems with the HOA. But three or four working adults can usually make the rent without any problems.


**God's truth. At one point in time there were six or seven adults living my SF house (mod cut - poster request) despite only two adults on the lease agreement. The two master tenants (names on lease) were probably earning more than I was by illegally renting out space (bedroom, living room, dining room and even the god-damn basement.)

Watch the video

Yes, incomes aren't going up as fast as the rents. However, he's not factoring in many single people will decide to share an apartment or house if necessary. So, the question then becomes do you want to live in a city if you can't afford to live by yourself? I lived in a boarding house twice and hated it but what was I going to do? Return to the US and live with my parents? No, I didn't want to leave Tokyo (job opportunities were there) so I ultimately found a small, dump of an apartment which the owner rented to me because nobody Japanese wanted to live there. In other words if there's a will there's a way.