Phoenix housing market prediction video (credit, home equity, house)

[Ponderosa]

Housing prices did not just fall in isolation in the Recession. Credit markets collapsed burdened with worthless paper securities then one thing lead to another. People lost jobs THEN walked away from their houses. Unless we have another recession, we won't see a crash like that in prices. And a recession seems very unlikely. In fact, the opposite - sustained solid growth - is in the cards if we can ever get past the pandemic. But we are still stuck with homes that are too expensive for this market demographic and prices will adjust - whether via stagnation or drop as demand withers.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Housing prices did not just fall in isolation in the Recession. Credit markets collapsed burdened with worthless paper securities then one thing lead to another. People lost jobs THEN walked away from their houses. Unless we have another recession, we won't see a crash like that in prices. And a recession seems very unlikely. In fact, the opposite - sustained solid growth - is in the cards if we can ever get past the pandemic. But we are still stuck with homes that are too expensive for this market demographic and prices will adjust - whether via stagnation or drop as demand withers.

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting. Now, I'm passing new development signs saying "Starting in the mid $2M range". We live in a development where some more houses are being built. They are releasing some premium lots. 3 years ago, the mountain view golf course lots were fetching $70K to $100K(ish) premium, and they were larger lots too. Last year (early 2021, it was $250K(ish). They just released one that I really wanted.... $580K Premium. It's not on the course, rather. it's backing up to unobstructed mountain views! WTF! And you know what, someone is going to buy it. Hey, the view is stunning and facing the right direction. But $580K premium? How much do you want to bet it will be a cash buyer (or at least someone who can pay ca$h). I'm guessing that means, my place is going up against some more. And obviously, some people can afford it. No way-no-how would I pay the money my home is now worth.

[john3232]

Non-Recourse, No Down Payment And The Mortgage Meltdown: Lessons From Undercapitalization

Conclusion:
In this article, we investigated the practical and legal perspectives of the American mortgage market, which played a substantial role in the recent housing boom and bust. As described, the residential mortgage market has two prominent features that led to this result. First, state foreclosure rules led to the predominance of de facto non-recourse loans. Second, borrowers were not obliged to contribute a substantial down payment or were not required to contribute a down payment at all. This article examined the implications of these practices and argued that they directly contributed to the creation of the price bubble in the real estate market by generating an imbalanced risk allocation. https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/vi...7&context=jcfl

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting. Now, I'm passing new development signs saying "Starting in the mid $2M range". We live in a development where some more houses are being built. They are releasing some premium lots. 3 years ago, the mountain view golf course lots were fetching $70K to $100K(ish) premium, and they were larger lots too. Last year (early 2021, it was $250K(ish). They just released one that I really wanted.... $580K Premium. It's not on the course, rather. it's backing up to unobstructed mountain views! WTF! And you know what, someone is going to buy it. Hey, the view is stunning and facing the right direction. But $580K premium? How much do you want to bet it will be a cash buyer (or at least someone who can pay ca$h). I'm guessing that means, my place is going up against some more. And obviously, some people can afford it. No way-no-how would I pay the money my home is now worth.

I hear you. We were debating updating some more (again?) or selling and I got an offer from Opendoor. It was a good offfer and way more than I would pay to live here and that is before "updating". Then again, a comparable place elsewhere is comparably priced and new builds have so many expenses with landscaping etc. We decided to tap the ridiculous equity and stay put.

[wilberry]

On the radio, it said that one in every eight is the ratio of " Investors " buying homes in the Phoenix metro. Would that be 12.5 %?
That seems high when Nationally it is 5% or less according to all the articles I have read. I watch what is happening Nationally, I think there will be an eventual Flatening everywhere as the largest generation of thirty-somethings settle down and have already bought their homes.

I will never pay someone else to live in their house. I will not throw away my money and give someone $ 2500 a month and I won't give a Corporation $1500 to 2000 a month to rent their Apt either.

I do not believe what is said in the video, like others have said the market almost never corrects itself more than 5 % , high prices are here to stay. Look at Denver and Colorado Springs, this area boomed and is still booming prices are not going down just leveling out.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by wilberry

On the radio, it said that one in every eight is the ratio of " Investors " buying homes in the Phoenix metro. Would that be 12.5 %?
That seems high when Nationally it is 5% or less according to all the articles I have read. I watch what is happening Nationally, I think there will be an eventual Flatening everywhere as the largest generation of thirty-somethings settle down and have already bought their homes.

I will never pay someone else to live in their house. I will not throw away my money and give someone $ 2500 a month and I won't give a Corporation $1500 to 2000 a month to rent their Apt either.

I do not believe what is said in the video, like others have said the market almost never corrects itself more than 5 % , high prices are here to stay. Look at Denver and Colorado Springs, this area boomed and is still booming prices are not going down just leveling out.

Yeah, I think you're right. The increase in the cost of housing is here to stay. There may be a correction but it won't be major.

Now having said that... don't quote me if I'm wrong.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by john3232

Yeah, I think you're right. The increase in the cost of housing is here to stay. There may be a correction but it won't be major.

Now having said that... don't quote me if I'm wrong.

The guy producing these videos has no such concern.
As I think I said when his last video was posted here months ago: this is the type of guy who can predict 9 of the last 2 recessions.

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting. Now, I'm passing new development signs saying "Starting in the mid $2M range". We live in a development where some more houses are being built. They are releasing some premium lots. 3 years ago, the mountain view golf course lots were fetching $70K to $100K(ish) premium, and they were larger lots too. Last year (early 2021, it was $250K(ish). They just released one that I really wanted.... $580K Premium. It's not on the course, rather. it's backing up to unobstructed mountain views! WTF! And you know what, someone is going to buy it. Hey, the view is stunning and facing the right direction. But $580K premium? How much do you want to bet it will be a cash buyer (or at least someone who can pay ca$h). I'm guessing that means, my place is going up against some more. And obviously, some people can afford it. No way-no-how would I pay the money my home is now worth.

I've never lived anywhere the real estate market is as volatile as here. We're in a custom neighborhood in Gilbert. Nice enough, but no golf course and no views to speak of. We're out here with the coyotes and the last of the cornfields. The lots here are all individually owned. Neighbors tell us one fellow had an offer of $600k for his lot, this must have been in '05 or '06. He turned it down, and ended up selling ten years later for about 1/3 of that amount. The low sale for a lot in our neighborhood was $130k, in '11 or '12. The lots are all more or less the same, so those price variations are simply the change in the market.

I'm extremely thankful we just happened to be looking for a house here in 2012 when the prices were good. Today there is still one empty lot in our neighborhood, and it would likely fetch more money than we paid for our lot that already had a 4000 sf house, 4-car garage, pool, and landscaping. Pretty crazy, sums it up.

[wilberry]

" Gov. Ducey expects rising housing prices in Arizona to level out over time
Gov. Doug Ducey believes it's only a matter of time until Arizona's leading housing prices, which have topped the nation for 30 straight months, level out. "

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by wilberry

" Gov. Ducey expects rising housing prices in Arizona to level out over time
Gov. Doug Ducey believes it's only a matter of time until Arizona's leading housing prices, which have topped the nation for 30 straight months, level out. "

I hope he was wearing a safety harness going that far out on a limb.