My neighbor just listed their home for $170K (Scottsdale, Bullhead City: rent, mortgage)

[UKFSChick]

Originally Posted by azjack

Talking down the housing market? That is truly funny. Yes, the largest housing bubble in American history has turned into a bust due to internet message board opinions.

Of course not. The press has had a huge hand in the problem. Confidence in a market is a critical factor in determining the market's characteristics at any given time. The picture is a lot bigger than message boards. Investors at high levels concerned about their stocks would of course like to see them boosted by people shifting their equity from property. Unfortunately, for the average Joe, their home is their biggest asset.

[Beena]

"I advise my buyers ..."

Ugh. The second I find out that one's 6% commission is involved their credibility takes an instant hit.

[ArizonaBear]

IMHO: I still maintain the housing market has about another 10% to drop on average here in the Phx area then it will 'plateau' for another 1-2 years.

[UKFSChick]

Originally Posted by Beena

"I advise my buyers ..."

Ugh. The second I find out that one's 6% commission is involved their credibility takes an instant hit.

I bought a home last month so I don't advise clients I work with to do something I would not do myself. I would tell family members the same thing. I never advised anyone to buy at the peak and I sure would not advise anyone to sell now, unless they absolutely had to. If you wanted information about how retail was performing, would you ask someone who owned a shop, or someone who shopped there?

6% is not what a typical agent earns per transaction - after paying the co-broke, franchise fees and so on it's about 1.5%, out of which come taxes, health insurance and so on. Not exactly big bucks when you consider you also have to pay insurance and taxes out of that...no benefits included, no regular paycheck. Realtors own property too...and we are trying to earn a living in this market. It is actually very rewarding to be able to help first-timers and low-income buyers get their own home after years of renting.

[azjack]

"The old-fashioned advantage to many people of buying now is that they will be an owner, not a renter."

Don't forget debtor.

"They will be able to paint, personalise and improve their own home, not live in their landlord's property in fear of losing their deposit because their child spilled a drink on the carpet."

Yes, I have spent many sleepless nights worrying about deposits. Actually, losing house equity at the current double digit rate is far more perilous to one's bottom line.

And when I painted the interior of the house that I unloaded in '05, it was a real pain. Have you ever tried to paint the top edge of a wall in a room with a vaulted ceiling? Not much of a reason to buy an overpriced Arizona house. Usually, you end up painting some neutral off-white color anyway to avoid offending the sensibilities of future buyers.

"And incidentally, when I talk about the bidding wars we are experiencing, I am not trying to create urgency to buy - it's just the way it is right now with low-priced REOs. The demand is easily out-stripping supply. People want to buy homes. Believe me, when I represent a buyer, I prefer it not be in a bidding war. It is much harder on the buyer and on me when we have to write 5 full-price offers to have one accepted."

It does seem like a lot of work to buy something that can be purchased much more cheaply a year from now with zero additional effort.

[UKFSChick]

Originally Posted by azjack

It does seem like a lot of work to buy something that can be purchased much more cheaply a year from now with zero additional effort.

...at a higher interest rate and without the benefit of down-payment assistance. Although since you dumped at the peak I don't expect the concerns of most first-time buyers apply to you.

But no, you win - buy high, sell low and let the others who go against the crowd get on with doing what they are doing in the meantime.

[UKFSChick]

Originally Posted by Beena

"I advise my buyers ..."

Ugh. The second I find out that one's 6% commission is involved their credibility takes an instant hit.

That's not very polite and a pretty big assumption to make about someone's ethics and personal moral code.

[Beena]

I never advised anyone to buy at the peak

Going to have to take your word for it. The 29 realtors I know were advising anyone who would listen to buy in 2005. You might be the rare one who said "real estate does not always go up".

And as for now not being a great time to sell....well I agree with Jack. Your house is going to be worth a lot less in a year. So if you need to sell, I would do it yesterday.

[azjack]

"...at a higher interest rate and without the benefit of down-payment assistance."

If you can not afford a down payment without assistance, then you can not afford to purchase a house. It is that buy a house no matter what philosophy that helped feed the bubble and will make the bust so far-reaching.

"Although since you dumped at the peak I don't expect the concerns of most first-time buyers apply to you.

But no, you win - buy high, sell low and let the others who go against the crowd get on with doing what they are doing in the meantime."

These above statements are incongruous. If I "dumped at the peak," then I did the opposite of "buy high, sell low."

[UKFSChick]

Originally Posted by Beena

I never advised anyone to buy at the peak

Going to have to take your word for it. The 29 realtors I know were advising anyone who would listen to buy in 2005. You might be the rare one who said "real estate does not always go up".

Historically all markets go up and down. Why would anyone say something so plainly wrong when we had examples of crashes in living memory, and if they did, why would anyone believe them? I always advise people to fix a rate they are comfortable at because negative equity is always a real risk.

Originally Posted by Beena

And as for now not being a great time to sell....well I agree with Jack. Your house is going to be worth a lot less in a year. So if you need to sell, I would do it yesterday.

Since selling yesterday is not an option for most people, as I said, if you do not *need* to sell, obviously, don't sell. Are you seriously advising people to sell their homes now, or am I misreading you?