What Phoenix suburbs are in the most trouble? (Tucson, Mesa: for sale, real estate market)

[Ron Smith]

With so many foreclosures hitting Arizona, and huge retail outlets getting hammered this year...any predictions of what towns outside Phoenix are in for the most trouble in '09...and which outlying malls are going to be seeing the most vacancies?

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Ron Smith

With so many foreclosures hitting Arizona, and huge retail outlets getting hammered this year...any predictions of what towns outside Phoenix are in for the most trouble in '09...and which outlying malls are going to be seeing the most vacancies?

I don't know about malls ... but the Phoenix suburbs that have been hit the hardest would be the far flung 'bubs, such as Maricopa, Queen Creek, and Anthem. Buckeye to the west has sprawled northward beyond belief with the expectation that steroid fused master planned communities would be built, and push the city of Buckeye to a population the size of Tucson. However, with the real estate market being the way it is, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Basically, most of the outlying areas that are now suburban thanks to the rush to build numerous cookie cutter subdivisions & strip malls have been the hardest hit. A lot of these homes were purchased with ARMs & sub prime loans, and we all know that the current economic state is partly the result of all that nonsense. That's why the "new" areas, such as those in the far west Valley and far SE Valley have the highest amount of foreclosures ... while the more established areas have very few in comparison.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Ron Smith

With so many foreclosures hitting Arizona, and huge retail outlets getting hammered this year...any predictions of what towns outside Phoenix are in for the most trouble in '09...and which outlying malls are going to be seeing the most vacancies?

I think most of the damage has already been done in the outlying burbs. Prices have dropped so far that investors are back and sales are on the increase. Should the recession continue and/or deepen it will be felt more acutely in areas where increasing unemployment of higher paid workers live. Ahwatukee, Chandler, Gilbert, NE Mesa, Scottsdale, and the upscale enclaves of the West Valley are in the sights now. Many owners in these areas have ample equity in their homes or could afford the payments. But it all goes out the window when you lose your job.

Don't know what you mean by outlying malls. If anchors pull out then some malls may be hurt - malls were being hurt anyway by changes in shopping patterns. The new Estrella Falls in Goodyear is mothballed till this year maybe longer now. Overall though, not too many retailers are going to forgo a presence in the Phoenix market if they can afford to hang on. This was and will again be a top growth, sales, and profit area for decades to come.

[Valley Native]

The Phoenix metro area has been especially hard hit by the current recession ... and a lot of it has to do with the over reliance on real estate & home construction for our chief economic indicators. If Phoenix expects to recover and prosper, then it is going to have to change its ways. No longer can we promote ourselves as a sunny golf resort mecca, a haven for cheaper housing, or a place where retirees go to spend their golden years. Those things are fine to a certain degree ... but to rely on that as an economic backbone will just put us in reverse (again). The Phoenix area needs more INDUSTRY. It needs talented, educated people, and those with entrepreneurial sprit.

If the Valley recovers from the current slump (which I believe it will), then we can't continue down the same old path of sprawling our way to prosperity. Doing so will only hurt us even further once the next recession hits. I say this as a native to the area ... I'm not an "out of towner", transplant, or outsider who loves to bash Phoenix. I have pride in my home city, and I don't want to see another (or a worse) economic downturn happen to this region again.

[Vinny536]

so you are just asking about retail? I think that will be evenly felt across the metro area. perhaps some in the south east valley will be a little more hurt than others. I can think of about 6 or 7 chains that compete with themselves only separated by a few exits on the 202.

Maricopa was mentioned, but honestly the retail pain hasn't been felt too much in maricopa. The city started with about 2,000 people just 7 years ago, and the residential has far outgrown retail here. There are a few strip malls shovel ready in maricopa, just waiting on approval from ADOT since they are on state roads. Fresh and easy, ruby Tuesdays, a second walgreens and home depot are all under contract to build. the walmart building and new library are better than halfway complete. Rumored are an untrastar theater, BK, tang;s Asian bistro, and a bunch more.

Residentially maricopa prices have fallen to very low levels. sales are still hovering around the 150/month rate and realtor.com is showing 970 single family homes listed. roughly a 5.8 month supply.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by 61scout80

Maricopa was mentioned, but honestly the retail pain hasn't been felt too much in maricopa. The city started with about 2,000 people just 7 years ago, and the residential has far outgrown retail here. There are a few strip malls shovel ready in maricopa, just waiting on approval from ADOT since they are on state roads. Fresh and easy, ruby Tuesdays, a second walgreens and home depot are all under contract to build. the walmart building and new library are better than halfway complete. Rumored are an untrastar theater, BK, tang;s Asian bistro, and a bunch more.

Residentially maricopa prices have fallen to very low levels. sales are still hovering around the 150/month rate and realtor.com is showing 970 single family homes listed. roughly a 5.8 month supply.

The issue regarding far flung 'burbs like Maricopa is not so much chain stores and retail outlets, but the high rate of foreclosed homes. Several years ago, these newer developments in the outlying areas expanded rapidly with the anticipation of all the growth. Well, they received the influx of new residents, but a lot of those new homes were overpriced for the cookie cutter quality ... and many of those new residents obtained sub prime mortgage loans. When the bottom fell out, those newer residents lost their houses, which was partly their own carelessness as far as I'm concerned.

I really don't understand what the big attraction is about these far flung suburban areas anyway. Most of the residents have to commute such a long way to and from their jobs in the Phoenix metro area. Not all of them work downtown ... but even the commute times to the SE Valley from places like Maricopa are at least an hour each way when you factor in the traffic. Besides, if you can get a house for a dirt cheap price now, how much are you really saving when you count the price of fuel, and the wear & tear on your vehicle by having to commute so far???

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

The issue regarding far flung 'burbs like Maricopa is not so much chain stores and retail outlets, but the high rate of foreclosed homes. Several years ago, these newer developments in the outlying areas expanded rapidly with the anticipation of all the growth. Well, they received the influx of new residents, but a lot of those new homes were overpriced for the cookie cutter quality ... and many of those new residents obtained sub prime mortgage loans. When the bottom fell out, those newer residents lost their houses, which was partly their own carelessness as far as I'm concerned.

I really don't understand what the big attraction is about these far flung suburban areas anyway. Most of the residents have to commute such a long way to and from their jobs in the Phoenix metro area. Not all of them work downtown ... but even the commute times to the SE Valley from places like Maricopa are at least an hour each way when you factor in the traffic. Besides, if you can get a house for a dirt cheap price now, how much are you really saving when you count the price of fuel, and the wear & tear on your vehicle by having to commute so far???

No problem with your basic premise, but you have been here long enough to know that same was said about Chandler, Gilbert, most of Scottsdale and on and on. I remember being asked "why would you live so far out" when I lived in Ahwatukee (the part north of Elliot). I looked at houses in a place called Warner Ranch one time and wondered why anyone would want to live that far from civilization. Maricopa is kind a special circumstance in that there is a rez between it and Phoenix. But Goodyear is coming around the backside and someday the two cities will be neighbors and a freeway will connect persons living there to employment, shopping and entertainment all throughout the west/southwest valley. I've seen the plans. Believe it.

[jdhall1]

A buddy of mine & his girlfriend are waiting to see if their offer on a short sale is accepted down in Queen Creek. He telcommutes and his girlfriend works in the Chandler. They weren't even thinking about buying, but the houses are soo cheap it doesn't make sense to rent since they plan out staying out there for a long time. I went online looking in that area, and I just can't believe how many homes for sale & how many are short sales/foreclosures.

[amatrine]

Arizona City was affected bad. The price of the forclosures are less than building cost. There is house that is 3 years old, two houses down from me, that is only 46k! Talk about wanting to cry about my house value.

Ama

[sablebaby]

It's so not just the outlying areas, it's inside Phx itself that has been terribly affected. My friend in 85028 lost $200k in equity. I lost close to $150k and I don't live THAT far out. Every area took a good size hit.