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"Jack, I recall once before you accused the MLS of manipulating of data, and I requested that you send me the mls number of any plano that you saw that was an abuse of the system so I could report it; but you were never able to produce any proof."
Why do you think that I am under some duty to report these errors to someone other than the MLS? There are agent-inputted errors (both purposeful errors and mistakes). Often, those were used to manipulate the Days on Market. Since you first received your Arizona real estate license in late 2007, you may not have been exposed to all of these shenanigans, but some are definitely still at play. As I previously said (but you fail to mention), the DOM manipulation was limited by the MLS changes, though not eliminated. Of course, they would not have had to change their settings to eliminate this problem if it was a problem that never existed. The sales price, for example, sometimes differs from the recorded sales price. I imagine that this would generally come from carelessness by the realtor, but a couple of houses in a zip code showing a 7-figure sales price for a low 6-figure house can really skew the data. I have definitely seen that last example.
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"In your criticism of Orr, you neglect to mention that in 2005 Orr was very negative on the market. And that was prior to the price decline in 2006, because the trend of rising inventory and the declining sales were were indicating that there would be a drop in price to follow."
Did he advise his real estate clients not to buy in 2005? And 2006? And 2007? If so, those must have been some lean years.
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"Perhaps you would like to quote his attack so that everyone will know what is actually being said, instead of some hint that he is making a blind attack on "respected" publications."
I do not wish to offer him any more publicity than he already has received (I hope that your getting a piece of his seminar sales, at least), but one of your realtor brethren posted his entire attack on Case-Shiller and the Art Bell reference as well. You can use google like me, or since you have an account, go straight to the source. If I am lying and he did not compare those who point out shadow inventory to paranormal specialist/radio personality Art Bell, then please post about it.
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And having a "Good News" section and a "Good News" archive, that is a bit Orwellian.
The Owellian analogy is a bit over the top even for you.
A "Good News" report and a "Good News" archive is absolutely Orwellian.
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"However, I can understand why you object to his "Good News" section. Perhaps I'll ask Mike to add a section just for AZJack called "Bad News". Will that make you happy?"
I prefer just news. Someone who sets out with an agenda of "Driving a Market Rebirth" and to "Manage your seller's focus from media gloom to fact-based HOPE" and to "Staunch negativity that corrodes your FOCUS" are hardly characteristic of a detached source of market analysis. BTW, these are the topics of Orr's June seminar. By "staunch," he must have been looking for the transitive verb stanch, meaning stop/check. Yes, he seems quite open to accurate data like the foreclosure avalanche underway in Maricopa and Pinal counties.
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"You see Jack, it's the media that looks for Bad News, so that they can glamorize and capitalize on it. There is very little Good News in the media, because it doesn't sell."
The media played up the idea that house prices would rise ad infinitum during the bubble run-up. Exhibit A:
"Jack, you and I go back and forth on this stuff a lot, so I want you to know that I do not take any of it personal. I'm only addressing your message, not you as a person."
"Maybe that's your problem"
"Would that make you happy"
"whether you want to accept it or not"
"a bit over the top even for you. "
"your Bad News Only philosophy"
"I see at least 5 homes on my block sitting vacant with no for sale signs. (I am renting an entry level home in Surprise, waiting to close on a permanent home in Surprise), I see this as an attempt by the mortgage holders to regulate the amount of inventory available, hoping to stop the downward price spiral. Is this correct?"
While I am distrustful of institutions like Countrywide who have helped place us on the path to economic depression, the type of collusion that would be required to purposefully limit REO inventory seems unlikely. It is more likely that the numbers of pre and post foreclosures are so overwhelming that these lenders and servicers are just not able to process (dump) them any faster. Of course, the lender does not even own the house until the Trustee Sale takes place 90 days after the Notice of Trustee Sale.
The prices have dropped dramatically since the beginning of the year, but the de-facto moratorium is over. The moratorium was less about shrinking inventory and more about looking at the federal borrower bailout plans. Since most delinquent AZ borrowers are beyond the help of these programs, the foreclosures are going ahead full-steam.
This article linked to earlier by sh9730 explains it well. Overall, Casa Grande and Surprise are in similar market positions.
"We still have a large un-employment rate. Maybe even increasing throughout the year yet. Will this still be a factor?"
Historically, increases in housing costs in an area would have largely matched wage inflation. The disconnect created by loose lending and the accompanying mania changed that temporarily. But to answer your question, more unemployment will undoubtedly mean more foreclosures. And eventually more REO inventory.
Though I did post that link in another thread, remember that my feeling is it is NOT going to be as bad as forecast. Things are never as good as advertised, nor often as bad, though I do not dispute any of the information in the article with the exception of how many homes will actually foreclose in the coming months.
These are just my thoughts and feelings, and in the end I could be right or wrong, but alot of these ARM resets are not going to reset to horrible increases. Most of the Interest Only ARMs did not have this long of terms, and these are more "normal" ARM 3 and 5 year resets. Of course, if rates shoot up like they did this last week, this will be an issue, although rates are still at levels lower than a few years ago.
Also, I do think the economy is stabilizing and this will help. Yes, people are continuing to lose their jobs, but as so many here point out, PHX was a construction/service based economy and many of those jobs have ALREADY been lost here. As a matter of fact, the last reports were that unemployment here may be stabilizing also.
Agree or disagree, the stimulus bill will have an effect, at least in the short term.
The stock market crash of last year has rebounded somewhat - people's 401ks are now more like 301k's instead of 201k's.
Population here is still increasing, albeit it at slower pace than in the past.
As another article this morning in the Republic points out, construction costs are very low right now, so the companies that have survived, can retool their operations and still be profitable. Those Pulte ads comparing a new build to buying a foreclosure are quite compelling!
Finally, I am actually seeing COMMERCIAL activity increase here in CG (which as AZJACK points out is probably a microcosm of the exurb issues), with shopping centers starting to fill up again, new ones being built, and zoning issues being visited pretty regurlarly at the City Council meetings here. If commercial picks up, then other things will hopefully stabilize also.
These of course are all non-statistical, non scientific observations by me, BUT I believe most of the consumer driven economy is based on these types of "feelings". Hence the importance of the Consumer Confidence numbers each month, which by the way shot way up last week.
So...we ll see. Today there are less homes for sale in CG than last week by about 20 and thats after adding a whole bunch of new ones in the last week. More are currently selling than being placed on the market each day. Foreclosure fillings were going up in early May, but those numbers seemed to be stable and lowering now also.
Though I did post that link in another thread, remember that my feeling is it is NOT going to be as bad as forecast. Things are never as good as advertised, nor often as bad, though I do not dispute any of the information in the article with the exception of how many homes will actually foreclose in the coming months.
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I encourage you do do a bit of reading to see what people were predicting 3 or 4 years ago. There were many with a vested interest in a rising market who were predicting flat or a slowly apreciating real estate market. In fact they often ridiculed those predicting the worst case scenarios. You can simply look at the threads on City-Data by clicking the last near the top of the page for a glimpse of what was being said in '06. For example read the first couple pages in this thread, https://www.city-data.com/forum/phoen...ottom-hit.html
Shadow inventory, tight credit, rising unemployment, Alt A, Option ARM resets, etc., etc. simply don't point to to a stabilizing economy from my perspective. Consumer confidence? We have had 10 years of economic smoke and mirrors where every one from the 1st time home buyer to the CEOs on Wall Street borrowed way over their heads. That kept the economy growing. Now with no equity to cash in, credit limits slashed and rates close to 30% on their credit cards, growing unemployment, flat or declining wages I'd really like to know where all these confident consumers are going to get the money to grow the economy. If you or any one else have any idea where the money will come from please enlighten me because I must be blinded by reality or something.
Ive read them all...I just disagree at this point in time. Not saying the "sunshine" people were right then, I am talking about now. Im not going to get into a CD debate on this one....sorry...I just feel differently.
By the way, more good news this morning. Both China and USA Manufacturing numbers are UP, the Dow is now 2000 points above its March lows, and commodities are skyrocketing in price (this one good be a double edged sword but it does tend to point to increased economic activity).
Finally, in the end I believe the MOST people buy a home to live in....and while they dont want to lose money on the investment aspect, the intangibles of home ownership outweigh some of the risk for alot of people, so as long as the prices are reasonably in line with affordability, compare with rents (both of which I believe are true right now), then many people will buy even without the guarantee of investment price increases of the past.
Thats it for me on this one...I know many think I am totally wrong.. thats fine. I was mostly just confirming that although I posted the article with negative news in it...I did it mostly to show the other side, even though I disagree.
Ive read them all...I just disagree at this point in time. Not saying the "sunshine" people were right then, I am talking about now. Im not going to get into a CD debate on this one....sorry...I just feel differently.
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I may be wrong. I may be right. We are entitled to disagree. I guess I am just very cautious. I got burned in 2000 when the dot-com bubble burst by averaging down until I wised up and got out. I don't want to get caught making the mistake of falling into a bear trap again. I have a lot of my own money to lose if I buy and prices slide another 20%.
Whatever happens though I believe that we can agree that there will be no risk involved in waiting until January to begin a serious house search. I start my Sun City job in July and will rent regardless as I really need to live in the area to explore where I want to plant my family for the long term.
Whatever happens though I believe that we can agree that there will be no risk involved in waiting until January to begin a serious house search....
Do you think mortgage interest rates will not go up? Home price is not the only source of risk. Of course, not an issue if paying cash, or if home price drops enough to offset any rise in rates.
Rates are low now and anything below 6% is well below the historical average. My belief is that the Fed will do everything possible to keep them low. I'd rather pay a higher rate though than get caught upside down on a house.
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