Any real life stories involving the Real Estate Recovery? (Phoenix: for sale, real estate market)

[cmist]

I am hearing in the newspapers and in a lot of places in this forum that things are looking up in Phoenix, but don't know of a single person in my immediate sphere that has any good news to share.

I am really hoping to hear some good news and not just spread doom & gloom. I would love to be able to put my home on the market and sell, but from anyone I talk to, home values are actually lower than what they were even 6 months ago, and this includes my own home.

The truth seems to be that this news of the recovery is actually due to the majority of listings being priced by banks that are taking a loss. This stream of cheap bank sales is making the market look active, but actually serving to lower the prices of surrounding homes as they create a trail of even lower comps behind them.

How many people are out there actually saw a significant INCREASE of home PRICES in your area. I find statistics that only point out that the number of homes sold is on the rise to be useless, because anything will sell at a low enough price. Anyone that was previously underwater now in the clear due to this recovery?

I'm really hoping for good news, but tell it like it is, please!

[sh9730]

I think your assessment is still unfortunately correct for the most part. BUT, the thought is that finally over the last few months MAYBE things have stopped getting worse. The lower end, lower priced homes at least seem to be STABLE in pricing and are even showing a small (1-5%) increase. But you have to remember these increases are from the VERY BOTTOM of the price drop. The selling prices still represent in many cases more than 50% lower than they sold for in 05-06.

So if you bought anytime between 2002 and 2006 (and to a lesser extent even in 2007 and 2008 depending on the size/location of the home you bought) it is likely your house is still worth much less than you paid, and probably much less than you owe (unless you put quite a bit down when you bought).

But my view is we have to start somewhere, and at least in my neighborhood, the number of homes for sale is steady, at at a lower inventory level ,meaning that as houses to come on the market, they or others are selling. The number of homes in foreclosure in my neighborhood (and in AZ for that matter) is slowing recently so that is a good thing.

Some will claim that this slight recent uptick in sales and pricing is only temporary, being supported by the tax credits (which were extended today), and the banks holding onto "shadow inventory". They may be right. I cant know for sure. I dont get that sense from all my research, but Im no fortune teller either.

However, for your situation, assuming you bought near the peak, even if things go as well as possible, its gonna be a few years before we even think of being back at those levels. Longer still if this turns out to be a slow gradual recovery. But we have to start somewhere, and my opinion is that we have turned the corner. Only question is whether is a long drawn out curve, or a right angle intersection!

Hope this helps.

[cmist]

I agree that the movement is good and you have to start somewhere. I didn't buy at the peak. I bought for $196 back in 2000. I got a screamin' deal, didn't refinance, or take out equity thankfully

I watched home sales peak at 510k for identical floorplans in our area. Since the market took the turn, they have continued a steady downhill climb ever since.

I scanned the home sales right in my area right before I posted on the forum and it seems its around 230-240ish now because of recent bank sales. 6 months ago, however some some sold for 275k, so my personal thoughts are that home prices are still going to drop for everything other than entry level homes.

The fact that the banks sales are moving is a turning point yes, but I can see its having a negative impact at first.

Has anyone actually seen home prices rise in their area? Just curious.

[Rich_CD]

I thought the real estate market had seen the worst already.

But it appears that next year it will take another large hit. So, don't buy now wait until next year. You'll be better off.

[MotleyCrew]

Seems like there is a gain in the numbers of homes on the foreclosure portal for Surprise, Peoria.

[YAZ]

A really cute home on our street was listed at 160k back in February.

Still on the market but now listed at 103k.

My Dad always told me:

By the home that you LOVE when you are READY, and don't worry about it.

Of course, his generation tended to stay put over the years, and those folks never worried too much about resale values.

[cmist]

Originally Posted by YAZ

A really cute home on our street was listed at 160k back in February.

Still on the market but now listed at 103k.

My Dad always told me:

By the home that you LOVE when you are READY, and don't worry about it.

Of course, his generation tended to stay put over the years, and those folks never worried too much about resale values.

I agree with that 100%. I didn't buy my home to make a profit but was asking more out of curiosity.

I read alot of people on this forum saying that we are stabilizing and insist on correcting me when I say the market is still pretty bad, and pricewise maybe even worse than ever... They tell me on here to "check my facts" because the reports are out that we are stabilizing and looking good now. I wanted to hear some real stories to back up the positive statements they are making on the forum or in the newspapers. I was hoping for the best and thought maybe I was missing something.

I think the reports are misleading because they only state the number of home sales is on the rise, but the lower the prices get, less of the population will be able to sell without being upside down, so its not exactly good news in my eyes. Lower prices will only causes more short sales in the future because if you absolutely have to move, you simply cant do it without turning it over to the bank.

[YAZ]

Originally Posted by cmist

I agree with that 100%. I didn't buy my home to make a profit but was asking more out of curiosity.

I read alot of people on this forum saying that we are stabilizing and insist on correcting me when I say the market is still pretty bad, and pricewise maybe even worse than ever... They tell me on here to "check my facts" because the reports are out that we are stabilizing and looking good now. I wanted to hear some real stories to back up the positive statements they are making on the forum or in the newspapers. I was hoping for the best and thought maybe I was missing something.

I think the reports are misleading because they only state the number of home sales is on the rise, but the lower the prices get, less of the population will be able to sell without being upside down, so its not exactly good news in my eyes. Lower prices will only causes more short sales in the future because if you absolutely have to move, you simply cant do it without turning it over to the bank.

Exactly.

We were "ready" a few years ago to "upgrade" but we decided to wait as the home prices seemed a 'lil much for what we would get.

E.g., many of the "newer" homes were beautiful with all of the amenities. But the ones we looked at always seemed to be missing something.

Big kitchen, but a small backyard.

Nice garage, but no master bathroom.

Great yard, but a closet sized kitchen.

Y'all get the idea.

We finally found a home this year that was priced right that had everything we wanted.

I'll be darned though.

It's been 9 months since we closed on the place and there's not a snowball's chance in Hades that we would even come close to selling our home for what we owe on it.

BTW, 30 year fixed rate at 5%, 20% down, etc.

Moving is not in "the plan" right now, but if we had to.....

.....

......

We'd be in deep doo - doo.

[Rich_CD]

Originally Posted by cmist

I read alot of people on this forum saying that we are stabilizing and insist on correcting me when I say the market is still pretty bad, and pricewise maybe even worse than ever.

The real estate market is stabilizing. The drops are smaller and happen more often. That's a normal sign of stabilizing.

Keep in mind real estate agents are like stock brokers and always say "Now is a good time to buy." Anytime they are gonna' make a commission is a good time for you to buy.

The reports only mislead people who don't take the time to investigate things thoroughly.

The real estate market is still very bad and it's gonna' get worse again the first quarter of next year. There are no jobs, who's gonna' buy homes? Only people who are sitting on some money waiting for the economy to start growing again.

[cjs123]

Originally Posted by YAZ

Buy the home that you LOVE when you are READY, and don't worry about it.

That is what I did--picked a place with the idea of living, not "flipping", though it is nice to know you can sell if you want/need to [not the case now].

Fully expected prices would come down from the craziness of 2005, but did not expect them to fall through the floor.

For now, situation is as stable as possible so trying to enjoy home, etc. and not get too bogged down in the stats.

Best o' luck to all of us.