Phoenix AZ which way is it going? (real estate, condos)

[ColinM]

Before the 2nd world war, Phoenix was barely on the map. The exponential population growth since then, has left the Phoenix metro area as a sprawling conurbation.
The population continues to grow unabated year on year, as more and more people seek the warm dry conditions of the desert south-west.
The problems are many. Primarily, from a practical point of view, future growth in Phoenix is unsustainable. The western continental aquifer is almost completely petered out and snow melt and tributaries struggle to fill the Colorado river. California continues to compete for a larger share of the Colorado for it's water needs.
Builders continue to build and there is an endless flood of newcomers.
Many of the newcomers are arriving from California and not all are welcome. Gang culture has been cultivated in many of the newer housing developments.
The greater Phoenix metro area has developed a heat island in more recent years. A phenomenon produced by the widespread use of concrete in construction throughout the valley. The valley is getting hotter and hotter.
Air conditoning and water management are all a part of a tenuous artificial existence for people living in the valley. Continued growth is untenable and undesirable.
What are your views?

[azdr0710]

all residents not born here are part of the "problem"....if we moved here from somewhere else, we've each contributed to the "problems" of traffic, crowds, pollution, degradation of quality of life....based on your recent post, Colin, you say you moved here seven years ago....I moved here as a kid in 1975...we are both part of the problem

it could be argued that the doors should've been shut in 1880.....or 1920....or 1963???.....what is the maximum sustainable population level?....

only when a true crisis is perceived by a majority of the population will anything change....

[Borus]

Originally Posted by azdr0710

all residents not born here are part of the "problem"....if we moved here from somewhere else, we've each contributed to the "problems" of traffic, crowds, pollution, degradation of quality of life....based on your recent post, Colin, you say you moved here seven years ago....I moved here as a kid in 1975...we are both part of the problem

it could be argued that the doors should've been shut in 1880.....or 1920....or 1963???.....what is the maximum sustainable population level?....

only when a true crisis is perceived by a majority of the population will anything change....

I didnt read any recommendations that anyone ought to close the borders. Its possible to control the population by limiting residential options. I take the article to mean that Phoenix is permitting itself to grow without restraint but may not be considering the long term effects of how much it can sustain over the long haul. By limiting residential options, Phoenix could expect higher pricing as supply would dwindle. This alone could be a deterrent to moving here. The unlimited housing developments extending into the horizon is only keeping prices lower and encouraging unsustainable growth. Good topic. Thanks!

[krock1dk]

The gross overpopulation is one of the reasons Phoenix has lost its luster and why yours truly is looking at literally greener pastures in Wisconsin (I grew up in the Midwest). Lets face it, Phoenix has become to populated for its own good. There's too many cars on the road. Too much pollution. Too much crime. And the economy can no longer support the overpopulation. The population growth surpassed economic growth a long long time ago. As a result, the Valley now has an economy of places half its size. Not good. That means there are far too many people and competitition for the job market and the few jobs that are available. Also not good. Luckily, the population is definately leveling off and will be exasterbated by an economic meltdown. That would be a blessing in disguise; maybe people will leave and let the Valley go back to its former self. The truth is that Arizona (and the Valley) was not 'designed' to be a large population center, being a vast desert. That means the fewer people, the better. Hopefully more and more people will see it, realize it, and decide to move back to hometown X. I am confident it will happen.

[ColinM]

I think that government needs to intervene. They are after all supposed to be responsible for the welfare of the people of the valley. Up to now, the number one industry here has been 'construction'. Building endlessly. For what? A lot of greedy people investing in building houses, condos and whole communiites for a slice of the pie. Maybe government officials have their own private real estate investments and therefore little interest in trying to regulate growth in the valley? Whatever the reasons, the sprawl only gets bigger each year. There is only so much water to be had. Eventually it will be exhausted. Further development of the valley for even more communities, is completely irresponsible. No-one is addressing the issue. Even environmentalists seem quiet. There is no money in it and there is no imminent disaster - hence no need to protest yet. Perhaps people will really only sit up and take an interest when serious water rationing measures are brought in. Then everyone will become an overnight expert on the situation! LOL.

[notmuch69]

Phoenix was very nice when I moved here in the 80's. Small, clean, no traffic jams, less crime, not 50% illegals, etc. It's crazy now! I can't wait to move back to Wisconsin after the military.

[YAZ]

Fine then.

I'm packin' up my cement pond and headin' back to Town "X".

[Phoenixxx]

Originally Posted by ColinM

I think that government needs to intervene. They are after all supposed to be responsible for the welfare of the people of the valley. Up to now, the number one industry here has been 'construction'. Building endlessly. For what? A lot of greedy people investing in building houses, condos and whole communiites for a slice of the pie. Maybe government officials have their own private real estate investments and therefore little interest in trying to regulate growth in the valley? Whatever the reasons, the sprawl only gets bigger each year. There is only so much water to be had. Eventually it will be exhausted. Further development of the valley for even more communities, is completely irresponsible. No-one is addressing the issue. Even environmentalists seem quiet. There is no money in it and there is no imminent disaster - hence no need to protest yet. Perhaps people will really only sit up and take an interest when serious water rationing measures are brought in. Then everyone will become an overnight expert on the situation! LOL.

I completely agree, but I'm sure we won't be getting any government intervention. The market has to level itself out on its own. Possibly the fact that building has become less profitable as of late will be a blessing in disguise as it may force the valley to seek out other ways to fill the coffers.

I'm a rare breed as I'm a realtor that opposes new development. I don't find a sympathetic ear in my own profession although real estate and construction jobs were the hardest hit so I would actually expect the most staunch activists in this sector, but as you said all is pretty quiet on the home front.

I read the forum for awhile but just jumped in today when I saw a few posts that were finally opening some dialog on how to make Phoenix better. I hope you guys keep some ideas coming. We can't change the world overnight, but if some people have some positive contributions, who knows what could spark?

[movin'on]

Originally Posted by Phoenixxx

I completely agree, but I'm sure we won't be getting any government intervention. The market has to level itself out on its own. Possibly the fact that building has become less profitable as of late will be a blessing in disguise as it may force the valley to seek out other ways to fill the coffers.

I'm a rare breed as I'm a realtor that opposes new development. I don't find a sympathetic ear in my own profession although real estate and construction jobs were the hardest hit so I would actually expect the most staunch activists in this sector, but as you said all is pretty quiet on the home front.

I read the forum for awhile but just jumped in today when I saw a few posts that were finally opening some dialog on how to make Phoenix better. I hope you guys keep some ideas coming. We can't change the world overnight, but if some people have some positive contributions, who knows what could spark?

And possibly no one wants to build here, as there is nothing to build here for.

How to make Phoenix better? Good luck.

Moderator cut: against TOS

[TransporterG]

C'mon folks. No offense to the OP--we all have worries of uncertainty, as humans. Pointing fingers at Joe Chicago, who decides to move to Arizona is missing forest for the trees--my life is a disease, Echo & The Bunneymen sang in 1998--and all the fault is yours! LOL Please. We can paint doom and gloom anywhere in the world--draught, North China; floods, South China; Water and road infrastructure anywhere in the midwest big cities or East Coast. Name a place, and most of us can come up with plenty of reasons why it will go down the tubes, or up in flames, some night...on a night when "our courage fails, or our marriage." (Miranda)

What we fail to see, when we look at my 6 young ficus trees threatened by the impending doom of freezing nightly temperatures , is that we as humans DO adjust (especially the USA), politically, technologically, culturally. We worry that the BIG ONE is around the corner, the amageddon, and some in fact things we cannot control but could have if we only were more foresighted. But political will, the will of the people, adjusts when it is needed, perhaps never timely enough, but I would suggest that education in this country might doom us before water shortages and lack of petroleum.

There is no state in the country that can or will limit newcomers from coming to their state--when the economy was booming just a few years ago, I remember every specialty furniture store or plumber striking out on his own....hoping more and more would come. More money for the family business, more tax revenue for the state and local district schools, more money to build the infrastructure (light rail anyone?) a modern metropolis demanded.

So now life is not so good for arizona businesses...but it's getting better. And an argument can be made that no important political will or solutions to water, to educational obscurity, to Sheriff Joes, to energy, to bringing more jobs to Arizona will result from building walls around a city and saying: Alas, we've got MY Phoenix back. Any examples to the contrary are gladly solicited for discussion.