Some good news; Valley expected to have one of the nation's boost in hires... (Phoenix: for sale, real estate)

[fcorrales80]

Despite national attention as the state with the highest percentage of job losses, the Valley is expected to beat the national average of firms planning to hire beginning next quarter. The national average is 12% of firms and the Valley's average is 17% of firms with plans to hiring more people.

Good news as signs of recovery and employer confidence in the economy rebound:

Valley is likely to see boost in hires in quarter

Signs from real estate:

1.Last month was the second-best November for home sales in the area's history. Only November 2004 was better.

2. Phoenix's housing market hit bottom in early April, said Mike Orr, principal of the Cromford Report, a real-estate research firm. Based on current price trends, the housing market could start to see positive appreciation rates by March.

3. Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate, said almost one-fourth of metro Phoenix's current new-home developments will sell out in the next six months. New-home prices fell about 15 percent in most subdivisions during the past year.

4. Foreclosures and pre-foreclosures fell in Phoenix during November. Foreclosures dropped 21 percent from October to 3,808, according to the Information Market.

Housing business picks up in Valley; foreclosures drop

As the article goes on to state, December will be an important month for more economic indicators as we'll see if the falling foreclosure, pre-foreclosure, and short-sales continue.

Just for some interesting reads; the priciest homes sales in the Valley this week:
The Valley's priciest home sales

Arizona dropped from the second most economically stressed state to the 5th and continues showing signs of improvement: Maricopa County also improved and is not on the 20 most stressed counties list for October either:
U.S. economy to see sluggish recovery

Thought I'd give some good news for a change...

[shiphead]

I'll believe it when i see it. Sure, i look on careerbuilder, monster, and other job website and find a giant list of jobs "available." I say "available" because they are either fake or the requirements are so ridiculous they are not seriously looking. Then there are the temp jobs out there. Why would I work 6 months to not have a job again and end up being late on my bills? I would only be late on my bills because DES loves playing the waiting game. The game of waiting till you bust their you know what.

Kind of ironic that after Obama's speech at ASU, a few of the jobs that i've seen out there, require a minimum of a college education. Why does someone that has been doing the job right for 10-20 years have to get a piece of paper to prove that they know how to do their job? It is silly. I know a few people in that situation.

I guess that is one way to push out a generation.

[nickw252]

Great news, any idea on what areas and fields are going to pick up?

[cmist]

I hope its true, but I don't believe anything from the Cromford Report when it comes to real estate.

No one has a crystal ball and can declare we've hit bottom. There is no way to actually know that. If they mean the cheapest of homes have hit bottom, well of course they can't get much lower than 40K on the low end. What about the rest of the city?

I don't want to spread doom and gloom but I also don't want to start spreading unfounded cheer.

Think about a statement like, "Second best November in history". Why is it the 2nd best? Because an extraordinary volume of homes were sold at astronomically cheap prices? As for me, I would consider it a far better thing for fewer homes to be sold at much higher prices. This means there isn't an off the chart turnover rate and its relatively stable, and the less homes available, the higher the prices. When homes come on the market and sell quickly there is never a glut of inventory built up, so large volumes selling at low prices isn't the "best" scenario by a long shot.

When there actually is something good happening, it wont be vague statements like that, and other one man projections about what "could" happen in March. Good news will come in the form of "sales prices have risen for the 6th straight month in a row". They will be citing actual sales price figures and not an increase in units sold while leaving out the sales price average. They will be naming real companies that moved in as well as the actual companies that are booming and hiring.

I really want to believe all this, but there have been so many unwarranted stories that I find it a disservice to pump people full of hope when no one can put a finger on anything that has actually changed.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by cmist

Good news will come in the form of "sales prices have risen for the 6th straight month in a row".

I believe they have and that news has been published. You probably would not believe it anyway given your convictions. In any case, the median price was and will continue to be skewed this way and that by the relative fraction of distressed sales in the mix.

I also disagree with you that strong sales of foreclosures is a bad thing. It may not be the end point we want but it is a necessary evil to clear inventory. It is far preferable to slow sales of foreclosures that we had a year ago. I don't follow the housing thing too closely but my observations in my own part of the world are that there are far fewer homes on the market now than a year ago and the ones that are for sale now seem to be selling fairly briskly - albeit at bargain prices that don't make the owners too happy. I was walking around my little subdiv yesterday and did not see a single For Sale sign. People were moving into two houses that have been on the market for a couple months. Everyone I know out this way who was renting, bought a foreclosure house in the area in the last few months. My kids classes have new students coming in. The worm is turning.. Believe it!

[cmist]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I believe they have and that news has been published. You probably would not believe it anyway given your convictions. In any case, the median price was and will continue to be skewed this way and that by the relative fraction of distressed sales in the mix.

I also disagree with you that strong sales of foreclosures is a bad thing. It may not be the end point we want but it is a necessary evil to clear inventory. It is far preferable to slow sales of foreclosures that we had a year ago. I don't follow the housing thing too closely but my observations in my own part of the world are that there are far fewer homes on the market now than a year ago and the ones that are for sale now seem to be selling fairly briskly - albeit at bargain prices that don't make the owners too happy. I was walking around my little subdiv yesterday and did not see a single For Sale sign. People were moving into two houses that have been on the market for a couple months. Everyone I know out this way who was renting, bought a foreclosure house in the area in the last few months. My kids classes have new students coming in. The worm is turning.. Believe it!

I don't want to bold face deny things just for the sake of convictions. I had seen reports like you mention, but saw no evidence around me of rising prices, nor did anyone I know personally report any increase in sales prices. What about you? Are prices rising in your area?

I even posted on the forum here and got a rather long thread of people saying prices were still sliding in their area too. Logically, it makes me question who does this news apply to?

I have access to huge amounts of real estate data via work and when I run my own factual analysis it doesn't line up with news stories, and they are always rather vague one sentence snippits with no explanation that omit pertinent details to make something sound better than it is. Even you are downplaying it by calling distress sales a fraction of the market. Its more like a MAJORITY of the market. No one that doesnt HAVE to sell would choose to sell right now. The low price points makes more of the city short sale material than normal sales.

Yes, its good news that foreclosures are selling... but seriously, "Best November since 2004"?? Think about that. Why is it better than November 2005 or 2006? Sales prices were double what they are now and homes sold in 30 minutes. This person writes an article with statements like that and I am supposed to start bursting with excitement? It discredits the entire article because it becomes obvious they are twisting data and trying to be positive despite facts to the contrary. Look at the article yourself and note how no reasoning is offered as to what makes it the best.

[aoeu00]

So... you trying to say real estate/construction jobs are on the rebound? A better survey would be... What % of real estate/construction companies plan to hire in the 1st quarter?

From friends I've spoken with, their companies are still doing waves of layoffs (construction).

I can see "other" industries possibly planning to hire more, though: healthcare, "possibly" IT related, etc.

No one knows for sure..

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by cmist

Yes, its good news that foreclosures are selling... but seriously, "Best November since 2004"?? Think about that. Why is it better than November 2005 or 2006? Sales prices were double what they are now and homes sold in 30 minutes. This person writes an article with statements like that and I am supposed to start bursting with excitement? It discredits the entire article because it becomes obvious they are twisting data and trying to be positive despite facts to the contrary. Look at the article yourself and note how no reasoning is offered as to what makes it the best.

Quote from the article:

"Last month was the second-best November for home sales in the area's history. Only November 2004 was better"

It is clear to me that the speaker was talking about number of homes sold. What is so hard to see about that? It is not really difficult to discern the beginnings of a recovery in the economy - and the local housing outlook - though I am convinced there is no convincing you of that. The question in my mind is can it continue or will it sputter and die out over the coming months.

I never believed for a minute that my house was worth the 500K it might have fetched in November 2006. Nor do I think it is worth as little as I might get if I had sold it in November 2009. We sellers held all the cards in 2006. The situation today is bad news for you and me, but good news for buyers. What we will eventually get back to is win-win. Everything economic returns to equilibrium given time (and lack of interference). Foreclosure sales are a part of that process and, because they are so brisk, a positive sign.

[azjack]

"I hope its true, but I don't believe anything from the Cromford Report when it comes to real estate.

No one has a crystal ball and can declare we've hit bottom. There is no way to actually know that. If they mean the cheapest of homes have hit bottom, well of course they can't get much lower than 40K on the low end. What about the rest of the city?"

Indeed, the Cromford Report is spin dressed up as factual analysis.

[cmist]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

It is clear to me that the speaker was talking about number of homes sold. What is so hard to see about that?

Because use of the worst "best" implies its better than something else that isn't specified. As I said, I did my own analysis of 2005,2006,2007.

Home prices in 2006 were double what they were in 2009 AND they sold in a few days on the market. They didn't have a chance to accumulate into a glut that would later be auctioned off at dirt cheap prices.

I do NOT consider that activity better than earlier time frames, other than maybe 2008 where things were more stagnant due to banks holding out for prices that couldn't be achieved. Of course its great news they are finally dumping their trash, but at what cost? Volume of homes sold while leaving out sales prices is incomplete information and means nothing by itself.

What if everyone put their home up for $1 and the whole city sold in 1 day? Should we consider that the best day in Arizona real estate history?