upcoming cold spell?

[Ponderosa]

Don't expect 5-10 inches in the valley. That would be upslope. The valley looks to be more like 2-3 which is still a very wet week - nearly what we got all last year. BTW, 1800Z models are not backing off one bit. They have been consistent for several days now - usually a good sign. But, no it doesn't count till its in the bucket.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by KatrynS

El nino or not, the NWS forecast is so grim I think I'll postpone my trip a few weeks. If I wanted cold, windy and wet I'd visit my family in Seattle!

Thanks to folks for pointing out how bad this series of storms could be.

Makes sense. Even if it does not rain as much as predicted it is going to be a dreary week.

[KatrynS]

Also there's the getting there -- I40 from Albuquerque to Flagstaff looks to be treacherous in any case. And if it does rain in PHX -- days stuck indoors at a hotel with 3 kids.... NOT a vacation.

[grippit]

It sounds like you have the freedom to reschedule. That sounds like the way to go unless skiing in Flagstaff is appealing. Some reports are saying 4' of new snow by weeks end.

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I'd love to see a healthy helping of much needed moisture, but I think the predictions of five to ten inches of rain are exaggerated. Of course, rainfall totals of those substantial amounts have occurred here on occasion ... but in most cases, the totals end up being less than what was originally in the forecast. We shall see what happens this coming week.



I was a scoffer as well ... and still am a doubter. If this El Niño is truly as strong as what they predicted last year, we would have seen substantially more moisture as early as November or December. However, both November & December ended much drier than normal. We still have the rest of January, as well as February, March, and April to really see how much of an effect El Niño will have on our weather. A couple of major storms do not automatically make a wet winter!



I have looked at precipitation trends over the past 100+ years, and you're generally correct that El Niño brings us wetter winters & drier summers. However, you might recall that they were predicting a wet El Niño pattern as recently as three years ago (the 2006-2007 winter) ... but that actually turned out to be drier than normal. As I've said before: I'll believe it when I see it. After our dry November, December, and first half of January, I'm not convinced yet!

I am not convinced either, the weathermen in this city should be fired for making false, hyped-up forecasts.

It was supposed to rain heavy last night and today but it was only hit and miss drizzle, now the skies are clearing and the sun is out.

When I moved here almost 14 years ago both the winter and monsoon season seemed a lot wetter than this, now we're lucky if we get sprinkles.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

I am not convinced either, the weathermen in this city should be fired for making false, hyped-up forecasts.

It was supposed to rain heavy last night and today but it was only hit and miss drizzle, now the skies are clearing and the sun is out.

When I moved here almost 14 years ago both the winter and monsoon season seemed a lot wetter than this, now we're lucky if we get sprinkles.

I agree its been a bust so far. They go by the computer forecast models and that is what the models say (said). Our winter weather comes from the west. There are not a lot of weather stations out in the Pacific so the data available is less precise. As storms get closer, the models often shift from wet to dry as the real time data from CA and MEX stations feeds in. So what starts out as a wet model can quickly go dry. That's just the state of the art today. Do you have a better method?

Also, it is not over. More late today/tonight. The main event is Thursday. All according to models, of course. The models say several inches of water equivalent north of Phoenix. We might get an inch in the wettest places (north and east).

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I agree its been a bust so far. They go by the computer forecast models and that is what the models say (said). Do you have a better method?

Also, it is not over. More late today/tonight. The main event is Thursday. All according to models, of course. The models say several inches of water equivalent north of Phoenix. We might get an inch in the wettest places (north and east).

I wish I had a better method but I don't.

I just would like to see some good rains like the kind we used to get. I know the big downpours usually happen in monsoon season but I remember some of the winters were a lot wetter way back when.

For me it's a disappointment when they predict these big storms and nothing much happens. I think they might do that to get people prepared just in case, who knows.

[Ritchie_az]

It's a total of three storms. So far we've seen just the first one.