What goes up must go down. And we didn't know this allready? (Surprise: mortgage, credit)

[Howard Roark]

When the average household has zero debt, the boom begins. But that's decades down the road.

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

I have done so

[annie7]

Maybe not years ahead....My daughter is moving to Phoenix because our son in law just landed a great job selling kitchen and bath remodels. He's been living there (Phoenix area) for over a month. They sold their home here in kc (24 hours after it was on the mls) and he is making very good money. (We finished packing them up today and they will fly out on Tuesday) They will not have any debt. They are renting until they can decide where they want to be. They have three children and are considered the 'average household'. We, (her parents) are also debt free except for a mortage that will be paid off in about 5 years. (We are in KC) I think our economy will get better, I really do. It's easy to be negative, but this has taught us to rethink priorities. At least it has taught our family to rethink our priorities and be grateful for what we do have.

[Howard Roark]

Read this: It was just published this evening and includes Phoenix Housing market for the next decade. Very negative regarding growth:

US Housing Markets Facing Epic Hangover, Study Says - AOL News (http://tinyurl.com/y74la9b - broken link)
"Nearly a full generation will pass before major metro areas in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada return to the solid ground reached at the height of the housing boom in 2006-2007. "

I guess I'm in tune with the columnist. I think Cash is king the next dozen years or so. It will be another generation before anyone foolishly thinks that you can make your house your retirement plan.

Originally Posted by annie7

Maybe not years ahead....My daughter is moving to Phoenix because our son in law just landed a great job selling kitchen and bath remodels. He's been living there (Phoenix area) for over a month. They sold their home here in kc (24 hours after it was on the mls) and he is making very good money. (We finished packing them up today and they will fly out on Tuesday) They will not have any debt. They are renting until they can decide where they want to be. They have three children and are considered the 'average household'. We, (her parents) are also debt free except for a mortage that will be paid off in about 5 years. (We are in KC) I think our economy will get better, I really do. It's easy to be negative, but this has taught us to rethink priorities. At least it has taught our family to rethink our priorities and be grateful for what we do have.

[Wyoming Darrell]

Howard, I'm not really agreeing with you this time. With the stock-market problems coming, and all the problems we have already had, Isn't there going to be a very real problem with inflation? And aren't some of the traditional ways of hedging against inflation buying gold and other precious metals, buying diamonds and gems, and buying real estate?

[Wyoming Darrell]

Another thing that I would like to point out is that I just talked to the realtor that I bought from. She gave me a figure that she felt would give me a very quick sale. That figure was just over 20% more than I paid for it in December. I have personally seen houses of the same house plan, same builder in this neighborhood, with fewer upgrades such as granite and pool, both of which I have, go for more than she quoted to me for a quick sale.

[Howard Roark]

If you honestly can predict that wages will go up to the levels of home prices, then I'm with you. But where is the pressure on wages to go up? The Indians and Chinese can do a lot of our work at fractions of our wages. Until we get to wage equilibrium with them, adjusted for currencies, we will continue to outsource jobs and they will continue to pressure our wages to stay low.

The problem is the supply of labor is in a bubble and it could last a generation. When labor is too abundant, salaries go down. This happened in the early 1980s when lots of young baby boomers competed with each other for few jobs. This time it's much worse, as we are competing worldwide and the problem will last longer than the few years it took to absorb boomers.

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

Howard, I'm not really agreeing with you this time. With the stock-market problems coming, and all the problems we have already had, Isn't there going to be a very real problem with inflation? And aren't some of the traditional ways of hedging against inflation buying gold and other precious metals, buying diamonds and gems, and buying real estate?

[twiggy]

Originally Posted by annie7

Maybe not years ahead....My daughter is moving to Phoenix because our son in law just landed a great job selling kitchen and bath remodels. He's been living there (Phoenix area) for over a month. They sold their home here in kc (24 hours after it was on the mls) and he is making very good money. (We finished packing them up today and they will fly out on Tuesday) They will not have any debt. They are renting until they can decide where they want to be. They have three children and are considered the 'average household'. We, (her parents) are also debt free except for a mortage that will be paid off in about 5 years. (We are in KC) I think our economy will get better, I really do. It's easy to be negative, but this has taught us to rethink priorities. At least it has taught our family to rethink our priorities and be grateful for what we do have.

Tell them to save for the summer!!! The remodels are doing ok in the spring, especially for the people deciding to stay in their homes but summer is always really slow for remodels, even in the good times. They need to save what they make in the good spring months to hold them over until after the summer.
Have them factor in mandatory insurance as well. lol
It's a give and take effort, it's not steady and you can't estimate what you will make monthly. Save when the going is good, and use savings when things slow down this summer.

[aoeu00]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

I work at an auto repair place near ASU (Tempe) and things are bad..........my volume of work plummeted like a stone in the third week of January 2008-------and, still has NOT recovered.

Judging by the above (in 'normal' recessions people get their vehicles fixed in lieu of buying new ones-------not this time); we are in a truly vicious downturn...........which Wash DC is not being totally honest about.

Well, that's just interesting.. because I would definitely think things like appliance and auto repair services would be doing fine. Are people not fixing their autos or appliances? What gives?

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

Read this: It was just published this evening and includes Phoenix Housing market for the next decade. Very negative regarding growth:

US Housing Markets Facing Epic Hangover, Study Says - AOL News (http://tinyurl.com/y74la9b - broken link)
"Nearly a full generation will pass before major metro areas in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada return to the solid ground reached at the height of the housing boom in 2006-2007. "

I guess I'm in tune with the columnist. I think Cash is king the next dozen years or so. It will be another generation before anyone foolishly thinks that you can make your house your retirement plan.

After reading the article I am wondering a few things.

In another news article I read some time back the author stated that prices have a long way to decline to place them back to where they would have been if we had been seeing a traditional price increases and not the kind many people bacame used in recent years.

What I mean by that is, if prices have normally increased in a 30 year period lets say, and the easy money mess, or what ever you want to call it mess, caused prices to increase at a far faster rate than would be considered normal where is normal? Where should we be now?

If we are not where we need to be now how far do we need to decline to be back where we should have been in the first place? Or does anyone think that we have arived at the magic number?

Or is it that their is no magic place that we should be?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

Read this: It was just published this evening and includes Phoenix Housing market for the next decade. Very negative regarding growth:

US Housing Markets Facing Epic Hangover, Study Says - AOL News (http://tinyurl.com/y74la9b - broken link)
"Nearly a full generation will pass before major metro areas in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada return to the solid ground reached at the height of the housing boom in 2006-2007. "

I guess I'm in tune with the columnist. I think Cash is king the next dozen years or so. It will be another generation before anyone foolishly thinks that you can make your house your retirement plan.

Mod Cut: Personal attack. Prices were hardly on "solid ground" in 2006-2007. They were way off the curve on very shaky ground and that is why they fell. They have now undershot and will get back on curve just like they did when they overshot. It's all about wages. House prices move with them over time and when they get too far above or below the trendline they correct.

In any case, what even this negative analyst is telling you is that the house is going to double in value in a generation. What's that - 20 years? Even that dour prediction, is much better than putting the cash in your mattress.