What Happened? (Pittsburgh: mortgages, unemployment rate, calculation)

[WILWRadio]

To the economy in the Pittsburgh area? I just checked the unemployment figures for the last two reported months and it has jumped up a lot over the last few months.

[Bo]

The census jobs went away. Same story all over the country.

[BrianTH]

Part of what happened is that our labor force actually expanded--it was contracting most places. I did a rough back of the envelope calculation a while back, and I estimated that if not for that expansion, our unemployment rate would be around 2 percent lower, maybe more.

[WILWRadio]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Part of what happened is that our labor force actually expanded--it was contracting most places. I did a rough back of the envelope calculation a while back, and I estimated that if not for that expansion, our unemployment rate would be around 2 percent lower, maybe more.

No doubt due to the fact that people are starting to move into the area.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by WILWRadio

No doubt due to the fact that people are starting to move into the area.

Given that labor force participation usually declines in recession (and that is what happened most places in this recession), I suspect you are correct.

And despite that increase in the labor force and consequent increase in the unemployment rate, we are still below the national average. On top of that, we are doing at least decently in terms of job creation in these very early stages of recovery. Meanwhile, lots of people in other places who would ordinarily be expected to move to look for work are currently stuck in upside-down mortgages, but gradually those are being worked out (one way or another).

So it is possible we could see favorable conditions for in-migration of jobseekers for many more months or years. Or not--as someone once said, predictions are hard, especially about the future.

[WILWRadio]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Given that labor force participation usually declines in recession (and that is what happened most places in this recession), I suspect you are correct.

And despite that increase in the labor force and consequent increase in the unemployment rate, we are still below the national average. On top of that, we are doing at least decently in terms of job creation in these very early stages of recovery. Meanwhile, lots of people in other places who would ordinarily be expected to move to look for work are currently stuck in upside-down mortgages, but gradually those are being worked out (one way or another).

So it is possible we could see favorable conditions for in-migration of jobseekers for many more months or years. Or not--as someone once said, predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Not very many places can make the claim that they are creating jobs in this economy even if the Fed tries to fudge the figures. But I suspect the Pittsburgh area is creating some jobs because I was are previously that job growth was pretty steady in recent years.

[rhondee]

Yeah, d/t the recent in- migration ( and-believe me -I am NOT complaining!) there are more people looking for jobs here.
But the recession hit the 'Burgh and was delayed compared to the rest of the nation

[BrianTH]

We definitely lost some jobs in the recession--just not nearly as much proportionally as the national average.

[Honest Bob]

One thing you have to take into account is the fact that normally unemployment compensation only lasts 6 months. After that - you are sol.

Because it is now possible to collect benefits for 99 weeks, more people are being counted as being unemployed - because they are still collecting benefits.

Usually when a persons unemployment compensation is exhausted you are added to the rolls of the public assistance. If they counted all the people who did not have a job, I believe that it would amount to about 20% and not just the 10% who are collecting a check.

Because so many people were added to the Social Security - disability when the purge took place about 10 or more years ago, when they took people off public assistance and gave them SSD - that number might even be higher then what I thought it could be.

When you add all of this together, you have a disproportionate amount of people who collects a check that does nothing. Because all these people has a steady income, it is easier for the support businesses to stay afloat. Grocery stores, fast food restaurants, gas stations, malls, Walmarts etc..

That is the reason why Pittsburgh is attracting so many of these displaced workers - because it looks so attractive to them to move to a place where the unemployment is not as high and where the cost of living is lower then where they were running from. In time, they are added to the number of people who already were collecting a unemployment check - and so the number escalates. I guess we will have to get us a new governor - maybe one from Arizona who will close our borders to outsiders and ensure that there is enough public money to take care of our own first - before letting others exhaust all of our community chests - like drowning people all trying to stay afloat. All trying to climb onto the same raft and yelling save me, save me....

[Katarina Witt]

Is there any evidence that people are moving to the area, or is it that people who are already there are starting to look for jobs again? That is what I have heard about our area. I don't think many people are moving anywhere, unless they already have a job in the new location.