Real Income Changes Per Neighborhood. (Washington, Butler: middle-class, apartments, rent)

[eschaton]

PGH SNAP finally released the data from their neighborhood studies in Google Doc Form. Here's a map of the income changes, adjusted for inflation, from 1999-2009 in our city. Each shade of yellow is progressively higher income growth (in 10% increments) and each shade of red 10% more real income decline.

Going round the city:

Northside: The gentrifying inner north side neighborhoods we'd all expect (Central Northside, Allegheny West, East Allegheny, Manchester) chalked up most of the real income growth. As I noted in the other thread, overall Fineview had the most impressive income growth - a 31% rise - in the entire Northside. Northview Heights got bit less desperately poor, and Troy Hill saw minor increases in real income, but otherwise there was a downward trend, particularly in the outer neighborhoods, and most especially in Summer Hill, where real incomes declined by 22%.

West End: This region of the city had some of the greatest changes, both in terms of income growth and decline. Fairywood's average income more than doubled (up 138%), with the projects closed down and new market-rate apartments constructed. The West End proper showed signs of gentrification as well (+50%), along with East Carnegie (+20%) and Ridgemont (+35%). On the other hand, Sheraden and Elliott both saw big declines (-30%, -32%), while the real income in Esplen dropped an astounding 62%.

South: The strong performers here were New Homestead (54% growth) where a new subdivision went on the market, Saint Clair (43% growth) due to the loss of the projects, and to a lesser extent South Side Flats (28% growth) due to gentrification. The biggest decline was Arlington Heights, which seemed like it might have pulled through last decade, but fell back into ghetto status (-61%), followed by Arlington and Bon Air (28% declines) and oddly enough, Duquense Heights (20% decline). I'm not aware of any major reason the latter should have hit steep decline. Anyone have ideas?

East End: A lot to cover, so I'll skip neighborhoods which saw a less than 10% change in either direction, since there are so many here.

• The Lower East End was fairly stable overall, with Regent Square showing the only substantial change in income in either direction (+11%)
• Most of Oakland posted significant declines, but this may be due to the continued displacement of higher-earning locals by students. I assume this in part explains the big drops in Friendship (-23%) and Lower Lawrenceville (-16%) as well, as both areas are considered to be improving by other measures.
• Terrace Village was the only segment of the Hill that had income growth, everywhere else went the wrong way fairly significantly.
• Downtown and the Strip District gentrified, which isn't surprising. However, Polish Hill also had a pretty big jump in average income (up 24%) which did surprise me.
• Besides Central Lawrenceville (+13%), Highland Park (+12%), and oddly enough Larimer (+12%), the Upper East End was treading water at best, and in some cases (Point Breeze North, Garfield, parts of Homewood) saw big income losses).

Anyway, any thoughts? Anybody have details to fill in? Keep in mind there are probably five different trends here:

1. The general pulling-apart of income strata in the U.S. over the last decade. All things considered, the rich should get richer, and the poor should get poorer.
2. The closure of projects, which can immediately cause a big boost to neighborhood average income by displacing a bunch of poor people
3. The gentrification of neighborhoods, where the poor population is augmented, or supplanted, by a middle-class population.
4. The movement of students/young people into neighborhoods. In places this can result in gentrification, but the results will appear to be dropping net income
5. The replacement of the neighborhood population with a poorer strata - neighborhoods heading downhill.

Thoughts?

[Evergrey]

2009 is a really tough year to use when determining decennial income trends as it was a year of historic job loss and income destruction ... even in our relatively recession-resistant area. I speculate the map would show more yellow if we had 2008 or 2011 figures to compare.

[BrianTH]

I agree with Evergrey's point. Nonetheless, when looking at the changes in relative terms, this is pretty much what you would expect (at least if you account for students).

[interested_burgher]

The Duquense Heights decline is most likely due to an influx of students and young adults. I know many of those older homes over there have been converted into apartments recently.

[ElijahAstin]

Originally Posted by interested_burgher

The Duquense Heights decline is most likely due to an influx of students and young adults. I know many of those older homes over there have been converted into apartments recently.

Students from where? Point Park?

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by HeavenWood

Students from where? Point Park?

I assume it wouldn't be the worst place in the world for Duquesne students either. Wouldn't make much sense for Pitt or CMU students though.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by eschaton

However, Polish Hill also had a pretty big jump in average income (up 24%) which did surprise me.

I'm really not surprised by this. I've noticed that the neighborhood has really been gentrifying even since I moved here in 2010. More and more of the "old guard" types have been getting squeezed out by young professionals. My own landlady, seeing the income potential in the neighborhood, moved to Hays, which permitted me to move into her space (at $700/month) and to raise the rent in my former place by $100/month to $650/month (and there was heavy interest in the unit at that price). She renovated and rented another home a couple of blocks away to three young professionals last year for $1,100/month and once again had no trouble securing tenants. A records store, comic book store, and coffeehouse have all opened since I moved here as well, and the former Donnie's Place site on Herron Avenue is poised for mixed-use redevelopment if and when the new owners of the Iron City Brewery site in adjacent Lower Lawrenceville release their plans.

High-end renovations, such as the ones featured in these CraigsList ads, are becoming more and more common as of late here:

Newly Renovated Historic Townhouses (http://pittsburgh.craigslist.org/apa/2908878906.html - broken link)

http://pittsburgh.craigslist.org/reo/2965730379.html (broken link)

Never underestimate the growing popularity of living in a walkable neighborhood. When I had to get my car's brakes and tires replaced recently I was able to walk back home from the Pep Boys in North Oakland. I can walk to Bloomfield, Lawrenceville, the Strip District, Downtown, the North Shore, Millvale, Washington's Landing, and even the South Side (a fellow forum member and former Polish Hill resident used to walk to work there) within 30-40 minutes. I can also walk to Shadyside, Oakland, and the Hill District. How do I know? I've personally walked to (or ran to) all of these locations at one point or another since I've lived here.

With my own dual employment situation giving me more discretionary income as of late I, too, am probably helping to boost the neighborhood's average income.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

...Stuff About Polish Hill...

I have to say, I'm not totally floored. I mean, I know that there's been a lot of interest in Polish Hill among young people. I remember reading a funny story in City Paper some years back that locals were surprised that people wanted to buy houses there - people generally didn't even bother putting their houses on the market in Polish Hill in the past, they just looked for a relative.

That said, while I'd expect it to rally a bit, I was surprised for three reasons

1. A goodly amount of people who are interested in the neighborhood I've known are students or near-students, who presumably wouldn't make that much more than the household average. Admittedly, they probably still make more than the retirees emptying out however.
2. It's a walkable neighborhood, but lacks its own commercial district. I know it has Gooskis and a few newer businesses, but it can't hold a candle to Butler, Penn, Liberty, East Carson, etc. Basically, good, but not great location.
3. It suffers the same issue Bloomfield (and Troy Hill) does - some of the ugliest housing in the City. I personally would love to live there, but only if I could buy a house without aluminum siding, which seem pretty rare in my experience.

[interested_burgher]

Originally Posted by HeavenWood

Students from where? Point Park?

From all of the universities in town. They are capable of driving cars and using public transportation. There are a ton of college students in South Side as well. Oakland and the Hill can't house all of these people. There are a lot of young adults just out of college who work in town that live in Mt. Washington/Duquense Heights as well.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by eschaton

1. A goodly amount of people who are interested in the neighborhood I've known are students or near-students, who presumably wouldn't make that much more than the household average. Admittedly, they probably still make more than the retirees emptying out however.
2. It's a walkable neighborhood, but lacks its own commercial district. I know it has Gooskis and a few newer businesses, but it can't hold a candle to Butler, Penn, Liberty, East Carson, etc. Basically, good, but not great location.
3. It suffers the same issue Bloomfield (and Troy Hill) does - some of the ugliest housing in the City. I personally would love to live there, but only if I could buy a house without aluminum siding, which seem pretty rare in my experience.

1.) I don't know of any students living in the neighborhood, personally, although I'm sure there are some. I will agree there are lots of "near-students", including myself, but bear in mind someone with a Master's Degree or even just a Bachelor's Degree snagging an entry-level job here paying a $30,000 salary will definitely be out-earning the pre-existing older generation that is largely living off of social security and probably squeaking by on $15,000 annually. My upstairs neighbor, who is in her early-20s, is an income development representative for a national non-profit organization (salary probably in the mid-$30k range). My landlady's tenants in her other home in the neighborhood are a teacher (probably in the low-$40k range), another professional (similar salary), and a bartender (possibly good money). I'm dually employed by a financial services firm and a food delivery service and make over $30,000 annually combined. My next-door neighbor works three jobs. A very successful restaurateur and chef lives in the neighborhood. Another neighbor of mine owns a successful business. I've just envisioned the Polish Hill of 1999 being comprised of a much poorer (and grayer) population than the Polish Hill of today.

2.) The lack of commerce here has long been lamented as a major shortcoming, but we are at least very easily walkable to the Strip District. A sit-down restaurant, laundromat, general store, and a few other businesses would be much-welcomed. I'm not going to argue with you that our business district is anemic relative to the rest of the East End.

3.) I'm also not going to argue with you on this point. I live on Brereton Street, which, in my opinion, is the most scenic street in the neighborhood, especially when viewed from its highest point where it intersects Herron Avenue. There's a variety of housing styles on my street, but the vast majority of the original 1900-era rowhomes are intact---the ones that have been renovated in a distasteful fashion, for the most part, appear as if they can be easily "undone". There is some newer construction in the neighborhood that clashes horribly with our historic character. There are several vinyl-sided monstrosities on Herron Avenue, facing Melwood Avenue, along with a few newer vinyl-sided homes on Wiggins Street. There's a vinyl-sided bi-level on the corner of Brereton & 30th Streets that also really sticks out like a sore thumb.