Voter turnout thread... (Pittsburgh, Erie, Brentwood: suburbs, assault, rated)

[Moby Hick]

Originally Posted by Hopes

We will all be old someday.

Optimist.

[eschaton]

One interesting thing I noticed looking at statewide totals in PA.

On the whole, Obama did a bit worse in PA than even the national swing against him of roughly 5%. But it wasn't distributed evenly.

He did better in Allegheny County (adjusting for national swing) in 2012 than he did in 2008. Compared to the nation at large, the county got around 2% bluer. It seems my former concern the county might shift to the right (as Obama did 5% worse than Kerry did in 2004, adjusting for swing), was unfounded.

In most of outer Western PA, Obama continued to decline. Erie of course remains stable Democratic, albeit narrowly.

The weird thing though is three counties got a tiny bit more Democratic. In Lawrence and Beaver counties, Romney did only around 2.5% better than McCain in 2008. Adjusting for national swing, this meant the counties got about a half percent less Republican than the median. Mercer County was more extreme - Romney got 50.6% of the vote, compared to 49% for McCain in 08, and adjusting for national swing, it got about 1.3% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. In contrast, the lower Mon counties (Washington, Greene, and Fayette) continued to swing rapidly to the right, as did Cambria county.

I wonder what the difference is? They are all along the Ohio border in a row, so maybe some penetration of Ohio ads made a difference in the race? Or perhaps it was slightly higher black turnout? All of them have higher black populations than the rest of rural western Pennsylvania.

Anyway, it's interesting. It suggests to me maybe the decline of the Democrats in the rural portions of SWPA isn't as inevitable as I believed.

[BrianTH]

Ohio plus auto bailout solidarity?

[greg42]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

What do you think they are doing to Copanut and me?

...

I was more making the opposite point: I am not at all comfortable with the various ways in which civil rights have been eroded recently, even though I recognize that I have not been personally affected in any significant ways.

Well, maybe there isn't much too obviously noticeable if you don't want to get on an airplane and/or cross a national boundary. I figured we probably had that in common (wanting to get on an airplane occasionally) but maybe we don't. Or perhaps it is that you don't find that situation to be a "significant" effect.

That's just the first one that springs to mind. I would think there are others if I dig enough.

[greg42]

Originally Posted by Hopes

A better example with be senior citizen issues. We will all be old someday.

I'm starting to think not!

[BrianTH]

It turns out that Colorado was likely the "tipping point" state this year:

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage - NYTimes.com

There is more interesting analysis there about other issues as well.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by greg42

Or perhaps it is that you don't find that situation to be a "significant" effect.

That. I already had a passport, and the increased security at the airports and borders has been no more than a minor inconvenience for me. And of course I have been going through searches to fly my whole life, so there hasn't been any meaningful change in principle.

[Copanut]

Originally Posted by Hopes

A better example with be senior citizen issues. We will all be old someday.

Go pound salt, I turn 60 this week.


As to healthcare, always marry a nurse, works for me.

That's all I got.

[greg42]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

That. I already had a passport, and the increased security at the airports and borders has been no more than a minor inconvenience for me. And of course I have been going through searches to fly my whole life, so there hasn't been any meaningful change in principle.

Suit yourself. I consider the change to full body search a significant enough invasion that it makes me avoid flying. And neither of these two political parties in charge is interested in changing that.

So I guess I shouldn't have tried to angle my way into your little group.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by greg42

Suit yourself. I consider the change to full body search a significant enough invasion that it makes me avoid flying.

I can understand that attitude, although I personally think that line was already crossed with mandatory baggage xrays and metal detectors.