Predictions for Pittsburgh in ten years? What about twenty? (Washington: for sale, rentals)

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

I hope Pittsburgh's home appreciaton in the future isn't as bad as some on here think it may become.

The basic problem is that Pittsburgh's older housing is (still) dramatically underpriced relative to the cost of building roughly equivalent new units (new units are typically more expensive than older units on average, but not to the dramatic degree we still see in Pittsburgh). But that won't last if the population has moved onto a long-term growth path and per capita incomes continue to improve.

So unless something revolutionizes the costs of providing new housing, or unless something happens to cause the population to start shrinking and/or per capita incomes to go back down (the latter sort of thing unlikely to be a good thing), we are destined for a period of abnormal appreciation until a more normal relationship between old and new unit prices is established. Roughly speaking, I would guess we are looking at cumulative abnormal appreciation (so this is on top of normal, keep up with inflation/incomes appreciation) of around a doubling of current prices on older housing (on average--individual neighborhoods will vary considerably).

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by LIRefugee

I agree, but we have quite a lot of holes to fill before it gets to that level. I think it will get there eventually.

Yep, and that's why I put it in my 20 year, but not 10 year, prediction.

However, to keep beating an old drum--20 years is not too soon to be thinking about things like how you will be building out your rapid transit system, such that rapid-transit-accessible housing in particular doesn't become exclusively a luxury category.

[OZ2012]

In 20 years, the generation of people that still thinks of smokestacks when they hear the name Pittsburgh will be dead or nearly dead.

More younger people and transplants will be in Pittsburgh, making it more vibrant, diverse and culturally more open-minded.

It will be slightly warmer in twenty years.

[LIRefugee]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

However, to keep beating an old drum--20 years is not too soon to be thinking about things like how you will be building out your rapid transit system, such that rapid-transit-accessible housing in particular doesn't become exclusively a luxury category.

In 20 years, rail transit will extend on & underneath Forbes Ave to Murray, on & underneath Fifth Ave to Washington Blvd, on & underneath Liberty Ave/Baum Blvd to East Liberty, on & underneath Centre to the Liberty/Baum line, and express light rail will be extended to the airport, Monroeville, and Wexford.

[bradjl2009]

Originally Posted by LIRefugee

In 20 years, rail transit will extend on & underneath Forbes Ave to Murray, on & underneath Fifth Ave to Washington Blvd, on & underneath Liberty Ave/Baum Blvd to East Liberty, on & underneath Centre to the Liberty/Baum line, and express light rail will be extended to the airport, Monroeville, and Wexford.

Considering they started talking about the North Shore connector in the 90's, I doubt this could happen in even 20 years and I think Pittsburgh is too small IMO to get the funding for such a large underground rail project.
Personally in 10 years, I see Downtown becoming a neighborhood as more and more apartments and condos appear Downtown, most of the former Civic Arena site will at least have construction started, the Hill will begin to gentrify, East Liberty's commercial district will regain its former importance, and the North Shore master plan will hopefully be realized.

In 20 years, I see Homewood, Larimer, and parts of the North Side and southern neighborhoods that are iffy now to see decent improvement as the neighborhoods that are improving now will have no more room for low budget people, new rapid transit might be getting built by now, the riverfront parks will be complete, the Strip will have a true residential element to it, and the Pittsburgh Public Schools will not have the same reputation as today.

With the population, I see growth, but not massive growth. I see a city population of 345,000 and a county population of 1,310,000 as fairly feasible in 2032.

[Uptown kid]

There definitely will be fewer housing projects... Certain ghettos (not Homewood or Lairmer) will gentrify and most of there respective populations will relocate as far out as Penn Hills, parts of Moon Township, parts of Monroeville, the Southern Allegheny Valley & into current "white ghettos"/semi-ghettos in the Mon Valley/SE Suburbs/SW Suburbs.

Also the City/County will see a very large increas in non-African American minorities...

[SteelCityRising]

I suspect the 2020 Census will show modest population growth had occurred during this decade in both the city proper of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County overall. I predict U.S. Steel will, unfortunately, be moving its headquarters from Downtown Pittsburgh to the suburbs. PNC will continue to expand its Downtown footprint and will rise to be the nation's third-largest bank from its current position as fifth-largest. I suspect Citizens' Bank will be acquired by another bank (not PNC), and I also suspect it will be a nationally-recognized bank new to the Pittsburgh MSA. Citizens' currently has dual headquarters locations in both Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. I predict the new bank will not only take over the existing Pittsburgh HQ for Citizens' but will also consolidate the Philadelphia HQ here, driving up demand once again for Class-A office space. In addition I also believe at least one energy company (Consol?) will have a moderate Downtown office presence.

Housing prices will continue to rise in the urban core. We'll see more cases like Polish Hill, which went from being "meh" to "hip" seemingly overnight. I predict the Central North Side will continue to become more attractive, and Deutschtown and Manchester will be fully gentrified. In 20 years there will be serious discussion (but no real progress) on a new subway line from Downtown to Wilkinsburg with stops throughout Oakland, Shadyside, and East Liberty. Traffic around the tunnels on the Parkways will worsen immensely. Post-war inner suburbs, such as Penn Hills and West Mifflin, will gradually decline. "Portlandia" will give way to a spin-off of "Pittsburghia".

Oh, and our weather will most certainly be much more volatile by then, as has been the trend globally.

[ferraris]

Originally Posted by bradjl2009

Considering they started talking about the North Shore connector in the 90's

Try 1917 . Pittsburgh is *long* overdue for a mass transit system overhaul.

[Craziaskowboi]

I predict the 2020 Census will show Pittsburgh having its first population growth since 1950, and the metropolitan area growing as well. Pittsburgh will grow by 2%, but the metropolitan area will grow by 1%. Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties will have growth, and Armstrong, Fayette and Westmoreland Counties will have continued decline. Beaver County will be flat. Allegheny County alone will account for more than the total growth of the metropolitan area, meaning that the outlying counties altogether will still lose population. The black population will pass 210,000 in the metropolitan area, and the Asian population will pass 70,000. The white population will fall below 2,000,000. Allegheny County will become ever more diverse, and the outlying counties will remain very white.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by Gnutella

I predict the 2020 Census will show Pittsburgh having its first population growth since 1950, and the metropolitan area growing as well. Pittsburgh will grow by 2%, but the metropolitan area will grow by 1%. Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties will have growth, and Armstrong, Fayette and Westmoreland Counties will have continued decline. Beaver County will be flat. Allegheny County alone will account for more than the total growth of the metropolitan area, meaning that the outlying counties altogether will still lose population. The black population will pass 210,000 in the metropolitan area, and the Asian population will pass 70,000. The white population will fall below 2,000,000. Allegheny County will become ever more diverse, and the outlying counties will remain very white.

You think Westmoreland will decline still? With areas like Murrysville, Penn, Hempfield, Unity twps? The only areas that are still in decline are New Kensington/Arnold and Monesseon. I bet Westmoreland will grow, possibly at a faster rate than Washington and Allegheny.