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The percentage of rentals in a neighborhood is the key to the potential impact. Mt. Lebanon doesn't have as high of a percentage. But t won't matter if the rentals are high end or not. Apartment developers of high end buildings are being required to reserve apartments for Section 8 renters as 'affordable housing'.
Access to mass transit is another key to assesing impact, as a lot of low income renters don't have access to reliable transportation.
In the South Hills, all that spells Dormont and Castle Shannon in my opinion.
I disagree. It is much more difficult to coerce private single family home type apartments, which the apartments in Dormont tend to be. The government attempts to coerce this through Section 8 coupons, which tend to offer the landlord a higher premium over market paying tenants. In my experience, most landlords rather forgo the higher rent premium. It's just not worth the hassle. Many Section 8 tenants are crazy and many of them have issues. In addition, by accepting Section 8, you are inviting government officials to put a microscope up to your property and write you up for expensive and sometimes minor code officials. Not worth it. Landlords that accept Section 8 are usually slumlords that have no other options. Dormont tends not to have this issue, as it has no shortage of market paying tenants due to its amenities, light rail, and close proximity to the city. In addition, Dormont can show that "it is doing its part" by pointing to the demographics over by Beechview.
As you said, the government is much more successful in coercing large apartment buildings and developers. This is where I would watch out. Be careful about moving next to large apartment developments in outer ring suburbs.
The government will end up accusing the landlords of discrimination. It won't be voluntary anymore.
And I'm not sure what demographics you're looking at for Dormont.
White alone, percent, 2010 94.2%
Black or African American alone, percent, 2010 2.1%
American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2010 0.1%
Asian alone, percent, 2010 1.5%
Two or More Races, percent, 2010 1.3%
Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2010 2.5%
The government will end up accusing the landlords of discrimination. It won't be voluntary anymore.
I doubt it. Private homeowners do not have to accept Section 8. If small landowners are accused of discrimination, they will just forgo renting out their place. Not worth the hassle, on top of the intrusive annual inspections, the constant cuts to the program, and all the red tape, and now the threat of being hauled into court for discrimination on top of it. Section 8 tenants have a hard enough time finding a place as it is: Section 8 housing vouchers lead to limited neighborhood choices | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Do you really think the government is going to do anything to restrict the supply as housing even further? Do you really think that word that Grandma Sally who is on a pension got hauled into federal court for housing discrimination wouldn't make its way throughout the neighborhood? What effect would this have on the other landlords and the supply of housing for rent in the community? They will go after the low hanging fruit which are the developers. Set aside 20% of your rooms and we will let you gouge the rest of the renters with sky high rents.
A token action that won't solve anything but for a few lucky lottery winners, but will make the politicians look good.
I doubt it. Private homeowners do not have to accept Section 8. If small landowners are accused of discrimination, they will just forgo renting out their place. Not worth the hassle, on top of the intrusive annual inspections, the constant cuts to the program, and all the red tape, and now the threat of being hauled into court for discrimination on top of it. Section 8 tenants have a hard enough time finding a place as it is: Section 8 housing vouchers lead to limited neighborhood choices | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Do you really think the government is going to do anything to restrict the supply as housing even further? Do you really think that word that Grandma Sally who is on a pension got hauled into federal court for housing discrimination wouldn't make its way throughout the neighborhood? What effect would this have on the other landlords and the supply of housing for rent in the community? They will go after the low hanging fruit which are the developers. Set aside 20% of your rooms and we will let you gouge the rest of the renters with sky high rents.
A token action that won't solve anything but for a few lucky lottery winners, but will make the politicians look good.
When that proves to be false, I'll revisit this topic.
For a current example of how a neighborhood gets transformed quickly, even without government coercion, see the eastern part of Bellevue, which is also high rental density and on mass transit routes.
For a current example of how a neighborhood gets transformed quickly, even without government coercion, see the eastern part of Bellevue, which is also high rental density and on mass transit routes.
Huh?
According to the NY Times site, in 2010 the eastern part of Bellvue was around 11% black. Admittedly this was around a 115% increase from 2000, but it's still rather small. It's also not too much more than western Bellvue (which is 7%-8% black) and significantly less than any part of Brighton Heights.
I suppose that is a rather rapid increase, but there are plenty of places in the first-ring suburbs which saw the black population more than double over the same period besides the "usual suspects." Even if the increase continues at the same numeric rate, it will likely be decades before Bellvue is what one would consider an evenly racially mixed area.
According to the NY Times site, in 2010 the eastern part of Bellvue was around 11% black. Admittedly this was around a 115% increase from 2000, but it's still rather small. It's also not too much more than western Bellvue (which is 7%-8% black) and significantly less than any part of Brighton Heights.
I suppose that is a rather rapid increase, but there are plenty of places in the first-ring suburbs which saw the black population more than double over the same period besides the "usual suspects." Even if the increase continues at the same numeric rate, it will likely be decades before Bellvue is what one would consider an evenly racially mixed area.
It's a large, fast increase, as I said and will continue. I lived there for a short time in 2012. Longtime residents in SFHs complained about crime. Perceived or real, it's what motivates people to move and contributes to the decline of a neighborhhod.
It won't end up as an 'evenly' distributed population.
Last edited by Goinback2011; 07-23-2015 at 10:03 AM..
It's a large, fast increase, as I said and will continue.
It won't end up as an 'evenly' distributed population.
Sorry, I disagree, for the following reasons.
1. There are just way too many declining first-ring suburbs (or outer portions of the city) with transit access for low-income black people to move to as inner-city neighborhoods either gentrify or continue to decline.
2. People in Pittsburgh don't like to cross rivers. Thus it's pretty unlikely that any black people besides those already living on the North Side would choose to move to Bellevue.
I fully expect that come 2020, the census will record higher black populations in Marshall-Shadeland, Observatory Hill, Summer Hill, Spring Hill-City View, Spring Garden, and Troy Hill (the latter will slow down once it starts to gentrify). Along with suburban areas including Bellveue, Avalon, Millvale, Etna, and Sharpsburg. But that's a very wide swathe of territory. In 2010 there were nearly 50,000 people living in those neighborhoods and boroughs, versus only 16,000 (and 55% black) living in the Lower Northside, Perry Hilltop, Fineview, and Northview Heights.
The bottom line is we don't have a black population the size of Detroit, so except in very small areas (like Sheraden currently) we can't have rapid white flight any longer.
1. There are just way too many declining first-ring suburbs (or outer portions of the city) with transit access for low-income black people to move to as inner-city neighborhoods either gentrify or continue to decline.
2. People in Pittsburgh don't like to cross rivers. Thus it's pretty unlikely that any black people besides those already living on the North Side would choose to move to Bellevue.
I fully expect that come 2020, the census will record higher black populations in Marshall-Shadeland, Observatory Hill, Summer Hill, Spring Hill-City View, Spring Garden, and Troy Hill (the latter will slow down once it starts to gentrify). Along with suburban areas including Bellveue, Avalon, Millvale, Etna, and Sharpsburg. But that's a very wide swathe of territory. In 2010 there were nearly 50,000 people living in those neighborhoods and boroughs, versus only 16,000 (and 55% black) living in the Lower Northside, Perry Hilltop, Fineview, and Northview Heights.
The bottom line is we don't have a black population the size of Detroit, so except in very small areas (like Sheraden currently) we can't have rapid white flight any longer.
Sheraden was impacted by the closing of Broadhead Manor, and the rehabilitation of Westgate. What would impact places like Bellevue, would be if Northview Heights, and Allegheny Dwellings were done away with. The complex on Spring Hill is another one. I doubt if they would be dumb enough to do away with Northview, but I'd be pretty nervous about Allegheny Dwellings, as the Central North Side would likely really take off if it weren't there anymore, and I'm sure there is some pressure from NS interests to put the wrecking ball to it. South of the rivers, only a small section of Arlington Hts. remains. Being in the rental property business, eschaton is correct about people wanting to stay in their part of town. Poor people who live in the East End, are rarely interested in properties north, or south of the rivers, even when they are in nicer areas. There is just not a large enough minority population on the South Side of Pittsburgh to destabilize Dormont, and Castle Shannon over the next 25-30 years. What movement there is, will continue to be into Mt. Oliver, Arlington, Allentown, Carrick, Beechview, and the section of Mt. Washington adjacent to Beltzhoover. This is not like the 1950's, when blacks were coming out of the south in large numbers. There is no growth in the local black population.
Sheraden was impacted by the closing of Broadhead Manor, and the rehabilitation of Westgate. What would impact places like Bellevue, would be if Northview Heights, and Allegheny Dwellings were done away with. The complex on Spring Hill is another one. I doubt if they would be dumb enough to do away with Northview, but I'd be pretty nervous about Allegheny Dwellings, as the Central North Side would likely really take off if it weren't there anymore, and I'm sure there is some pressure from NS interests to put the wrecking ball to it. South of the rivers, only a small section of Arlington Hts. remains. Being in the rental property business, eschaton is correct about people wanting to stay in their part of town. Poor people who live in the East End, are rarely interested in properties north, or south of the rivers, even when they are in nicer areas. There is just not a large enough minority population on the South Side of Pittsburgh to destabilize Dormont, and Castle Shannon over the next 25-30 years. What movement there is, will continue to be into Mt. Oliver, Arlington, Allentown, Carrick, Beechview, and the section of Mt. Washington adjacent to Beltzhoover. This is not like the 1950's, when blacks were coming out of the south in large numbers. There is no growth in the local black population.
How do you explain Belzhoover and all the other black neighborhoods in their vicinity?
These weren't black neighborhoods until the 1960's.
Given enough gentrification and 'redevelopment', they'll cross rivers.
But even ignoring river crossing, why would a section 8 renter live in any of those areas if they could instead use the voucher in a first ring suburb?
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