Why is everyone leaving the city? (Pittsburgh: real estate, mortgages, house)

[prnlvsxy]

Just because it's called "city-data", I don't think precludes discussion of the Greater Pittsburgh Area, does it?

[eschaton]

2016 estimates on the municipal level are not out yet, and won't be until later in the year. Last year the county was estimated to have lost 2,437 people, and the city was estimated to have lost 1,374 people. My understanding is the municipal numbers are made by starting with the net increase/decline, dividing it by the proportion of the county which is made up by a given municipality (around a quarter in our case), and then modifying based upon the number of reported residential housing starts and change in group quarters (dorm, prison, nursing home, etc) population.

Last year the Census reported population decline county-wide picked up, with a decline of 3,933 people. It's almost certain that Pittsburgh also experienced some population decline, but it may not be reported to have grown as much (or may have even shrunk) if the number of housing units which came on the market was greater than 2015 (I'm almost certain it was). Still, any decline Pittsburgh has for the year (and ultimately the decade) is going to be pretty minor - down a fraction of a percent for the year, and maybe 1%-2% for the decade as a whole at worst.

One way to think about it by putting neighborhoods into buckets.

First, there's the areas which are experiencing growth in terms of new apartment units going online. This is pretty much limited to Downtown, Uptown, Oakland, South Side, Shadyside, East Liberty, Strip District, and Central and Lower Lawrenceville. Maybe Bloomfield/Friendship as well, given the Morrow Park Apartments and Baumhaus are on the fringes of the neighborhoods.

Then, there are gentrifying areas which don't see a lot of new construction. The population here tends to shrink over time, as low income families are displaced with single people or childless couples taking their place. Declining household size also hits stable middle class areas like Squirrel Hill and Point Breeze, as they're essentially built out and the number of children is dropping in established middle-class area across the country.

Finally, of course, there are the bad neighborhoods which are crapping the bed. If we're seeing 20% or higher population decline over a quarter of the city for example, we'd need to have a net of 20% population growth or more in the top quarter to cancel it out. I don't think we're there yet.

[charisb]

Are people leaving cities because they don't want to live in cities, or because they are getting priced out? Certainly more affluent people have been moving into cities for the past few years since many want to be close to services and take advantage of walkability/public transportation.
Nationality there is more poverty in suburbs than cities now, but I am not sure if that is also the case in Pittsburgh.

[Paul2421]

Originally Posted by charisb

Are people leaving cities because they don't want to live in cities, or because they are getting priced out? Certainly more affluent people have been moving into cities for the past few years since many want to be close to services and take advantage of walkability/public transportation.
Nationality there is more poverty in suburbs than cities now, but I am not sure if that is also the case in Pittsburgh.

i would be interested in the public transportation utilization stats. I actually heard it was going down which goes with my observation that rich people scoff their nose at it and would support all of the houses with integral parking.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by Paul2421

i would be interested in the public transportation utilization stats. I actually heard it was going down which goes with my observation that rich people scoff their nose at it and would support all of the houses with integral parking.

The problem is that many public transportation agencies nationwide are extremely cash-strapped (if not wholly insolvent), so they can't afford any effective positive public relations campaigns that would revamp their images. So, yes, there are plenty of not only "rich" but also even middle-class people in not only Greater Pittsburgh but nationwide who scoff at the thought of riding a bus because "the bus is for poor people".

How do we combat that perception? I don't know. I will say that for every indigent-looking person I see on the idling by me in traffic as I walk on the sidewalks I see numerous other professional-looking people right beside them on the buses. I'd wager a bet to say the "buses are for poor people" stigma is less prevalent in Pittsburgh than other areas.

[Paul2421]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

The problem is that many public transportation agencies nationwide are extremely cash-strapped (if not wholly insolvent), so they can't afford any effective positive public relations campaigns that would revamp their images. So, yes, there are plenty of not only "rich" but also even middle-class people in not only Greater Pittsburgh but nationwide who scoff at the thought of riding a bus because "the bus is for poor people".

How do we combat that perception? I don't know. I will say that for every indigent-looking person I see on the idling by me in traffic as I walk on the sidewalks I see numerous other professional-looking people right beside them on the buses. I'd wager a bet to say the "buses are for poor people" stigma is less prevalent in Pittsburgh than other areas.

those professional people aren't the ones making 100k-200k though and working at google. plenty of people in suits making 20k-50k. not saying that is low wage but it isn't really telling.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Paul2421

i would be interested in the public transportation utilization stats. I actually heard it was going down which goes with my observation that rich people scoff their nose at it and would support all of the houses with integral parking.

2010 numbers for Pittsburgh

Drove alone: 53.6%
Carpooled: 10.2%
Public Transit: 18.5%
Walked: 11.8%
Bicycle: 1.2%
Taxi/other: 0.7%
Worked from home: 3.1%

2015 numbers for Pittsburgh:

Drove Alone: 55.7% (+2.1%)
Carpooled: 9.3% (-0.9%)
Public Transit: 17% (-1.5%)
Walked: 11.1% (-0.7%)
Bicycle: 1.7% (+0.5%)
Taxi/other: 1.1% (+0.4)
Worked at home: 4% (+0.9%)

Virtually every city in the country has declining transit ridership right now other than Seattle, IIRC. Probably not coincidentally, Seattle is one of the few places outside of NYC where it's become fairly easy to build new apartments without providing for parking.

[Mtl-Cns]

Originally Posted by prnlvsxy

Just because it's called "city-data", I don't think precludes discussion of the Greater Pittsburgh Area, does it?

Dont think so. But was just trying to explain why it shouldnt be surprising that many are pro-city and pro-Pittsburgh here. It's hardly rocket science.

[Mtl-Cns]

Originally Posted by erieguy

So it's city living or nothing?

I have no clue what that means.

And of course other areas should be discussed it just really shouldnt be a shock that on the Pittsburgh city data forum people like talking about living in and enjoying the city of Pittsburgh.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Mtl-Cns

I have no clue what that means.

And of course other areas should be discussed it just really shouldnt be a shock that on the Pittsburgh city data forum people like talking about living in and enjoying the city of Pittsburgh.

Living in and enjoying the city of Pittsburgh was never argued.

What was basically said, if you would have read and understood the posts clearer, is that many think city living is the only living. Meanwhile, there are many areas in including suburbs in and around the greater Pittsburgh area.