How much further can Pittsburgh's population drop before it hits rock bottom? (Beaver Falls: neighborhood, living)

[tallydude02]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

The bubble popped in early 2006. In 2005, the Pittsburgh Metro experienced its largest net migration (domestic and international) loss of the decade, -9723. As home prices were crashing elsewhere, in 2006 that number went to -7891 and in 2007 to -3351. At the end of 2007 the recession began, and house prices continued to fall nationally while unemployment started to spike, but less so in Pittsburgh. In 2008, net migration was down to -708.

I might note this correlation is not the only evidence in support of a housing-bubble-related migration effect. See, for example, page 11 of this report:

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Fil...ation_frey.pdf



So to be precise, when you subtract the urbanized area out of the metro area, you get a combination of rural areas and also small towns.

Anyway, these are the numbers (1990, 2000, difference):

Metro 2468289 2431087 -37202
Urbanized Area 1678745 1753136 +74391
Non-Urbanized Area 789544 677951 -111593

So it is true the non-urbanized area portion contains fewer people than the urbanized area portion. But the loss of population in the non-urbanized area portion was so severe it more than reversed the gain in population in the urbanized area portion.

Not sure if this made a huge difference for the Pittsburgh area, but the Census Bureau's definition of urban and rural changed from the 1990 census to the 2000 census. Previously rural areas that met the density threshold and were counted as urban in the 2000 census.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by tallydude02

Not sure if this made a huge difference for the Pittsburgh area, but the Census Bureau's definition of urban and rural changed from the 1990 census to the 2000 census. Previously rural areas that met the density threshold and were counted as urban in the 2000 census.

Yes, that is the year Beaver County was added to the Pgh MSA. However, most of BC is far from rural.

[BrianTH]

The 2000 definition changes didn't do much to affect the Pittsburgh urbanized area. The biggest change was creating a category for "urban clusters" between 2500 and 50000 in population, but the Pittsburgh urbanized area already was way over the old 50000 threshhold. Another somewhat important change was going to a pure census block definition and ignoring place boundaries, which actually led to some land being reclassified from urban to rural. This was particularly relevant in cases where cities had annexed a lot of land and ended up containing a lot of rural chunks inside their boundaries. But Pittsburgh hadn't done that.

On the other hand, it is true the Pittsburgh urbanized area grew a little in size, from 778 sq miles in 1990 to 852 sq miles in 2000, which supports the thesis the population growth in the urbanized area was in large part based on expanding suburbs--but we knew that already, since the City population declined from 1990 to 2000.

I also think some scale is worth noting. The Pittsburgh MSA is 5343 sq miles. So the 74 sq miles added to the urbanized area amounts to about a 1.6% loss of land for the non-urbanized area part, but the population loss was 14.1%.

Finally, it is again very much worth noting that the non-urbanized area part includes both rural areas and smaller towns.

[Katarina Witt]

The small towns all run together, though. I suggest you take a drive into Beaver County along the Ohio River Blvd (Rt. 65). 65 and 18 begin to run together in Rochester, then split off in New Brighton. Continue on 18. Note how all these places seem to be one solid area, and how you can't tell the when you have gone from one town to another unless you see a sign. Together, all these towns have a fairly large population, as do the suburban townships, though they are more suburban in character. They look more like Wexford (though less prosperous) than Mayberry RFD. There is very little actual rural land until you get into NW Beaver Co.

[BrianTH]

Yep, the river valleys contain largely continuous urbanized strips. Unfortunately, I suspect this may be where a lot of the population loss in the Metro Area has been coming from, and unlike with the City, I am not sure that is destined for a turnaround in the near future.

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

Yep, the river valleys contain largely continuous urbanized strips. Unfortunately, I suspect this may be where a lot of the population loss in the Metro Area has been coming from, and unlike with the City, I am not sure that is destined for a turnaround in the near future.

I can see both sides. If you go into the city of Beaver Falls, it looks like a ghost town with people living there. If you go out to the burbs, it's bustling. I don't know what these people do for a living, mind you, few of my classmates live there any more. One friend who does live there is a nurse, and my brother has a lifelong friend who works at the local Penn State campus.

[TelecasterBlues]

Look....I understand that you like the city, hey I like the city........the only problem is that numbers don't lie and unfortunately ALL of these statistical sets are different. I don't understand where this "we've bottomed out years ago" thing is coming from, the latest government estimates from what I've found actually place us at 297K residents with a 9K margin of error tops as per the 2008 census estimates. I don't see where we've bottomed out and think we're still losing, it'll probably in the least take another 5-10 years before we see anything positive from data alone...best case scenario places us at a little over 305K at the moment and dropping as per the margin of error. But who cares, when you walk around town or go out on a Friday night, do you actually stop to take a head count in order to see if the locations are losing or gaining? It's not worth debating until the actual real deal 2010 census data is taken and we have numbers and results that are forced upon us as being "factual" and indisputable.

Pittsburgh city, PA; Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area - ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates: 2008

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by TelecasterBlues

Look....I understand that you like the city, hey I like the city........the only problem is that numbers don't lie. I don't understand where this "we've bottomed out years ago" thing is coming from, the latest government estimates actually place us at 297K residents with a 9K margin of error tops as per the 2008 census estimates. The median age has increased by a year as well. We haven't bottomed out and are still losing, it'll at least take another 5-10 years before we see anything positive...best case scenario places us at a little over 305K at the moment and dropping.

Pittsburgh city, PA; Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area - ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates: 2008

It also looks like the diversity stats haven't changed much, either. Thanks for the link, TelecasterBlues.

[TelecasterBlues]

Originally Posted by Katiana

It also looks like the diversity stats haven't changed much, either. Thanks for the link, TelecasterBlues.

Yeah oddly enough we're also now paired with New Castle as a combined metropolitan area? Median age for Pittsburgh's proper metropolitain area spikes up from 36.6 at the core to 42.2, and 42.4 for the Pitt+NC combined area...retirement mecca of the future? I think so, we're an alternative to Florida.

Pittsburgh, PA Metro Area - ACS Demographic and Housing Estimates: 2008

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet...mat=&-_lang=en

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by Katiana

I can see both sides. If you go into the city of Beaver Falls, it looks like a ghost town with people living there. If you go out to the burbs, it's bustling.

Yeah the newer suburbs will likely keep adding population. My concern about the farther-out older river towns--and I should note I would be very glad if I was wrong about this--is that they will be competing with closer-in historic neighborhoods that are getting redeveloped, and I am not sure there is going to be enough demand in the near future to spread all the way up the rivers.