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When you start from an all time low going up 10% is still next to an all time low. With the unemployment rate at 22%, that is what shadow stats has it at, I don't see how that 22% is contributing to the figures you are quoting. There was a contraction in employment in November. There is a macro piture of deflation from the collapsing Real Estate bubble.
6.6% sales growth in 2010 fastest since 1999 | StarTribune.com 6.6% up from an a really bad year is still a really bad year. Having said that we are just having another bubble. This is debt driven and we don't have the economic foundation to support long term growth. If you want higher housing prices we need more demand. If you want more demand when the market id already overbuilt you need to push more people into a position where they can afford to buy a home. To do the we need to raise minimum wage by about a factor of 4X.
Here is a question for you. The official unemployment rate and the one given by shadow stats differ widely in there stated amounts. The department of labor has the number at 9.4%. shadow states has it over 20%. The question I have is this how accurate are the government supplied figures for retail sales?
I believe the retail sales numbers are probably close. The railroads and freight haulers are dragging more stuff around the country, quarter by quarter--we have to be selling.
Do you have any idea how much larger the economy is today than it was in 1983 or 1975, other times when official unemployment went over 10%?
I still believe your idea of a 4X minimum wage increase is nonsensical, and would have no other effect than to eliminate millions more jobs while driving up the cost of living. If you raise the price of something, less of it gets used--and you want to raise the price of labor. Less will get used. It's a fact.
Awhile back it was reported that stocks were held onto for a whopping average of 11 seconds, Happy Texan described it perfectly they are just picking each others pockets. What I find amusing is people claiming that all there 401K investment has recovered. If that is really the case I wonder why they did not pull their money out when they had the chance ? Looking at history what took place in the market during the depression era? First a big drop followed by a rally and then the crash. Funny how history repeats itself and lemmings ignore all the signs.
All the signs are there.
Problem this time... we don't have the ability to manufacture anything that amounts to much. How much service can you afford if your broke. Only the people that are being set up to the elite pedestal, are set to rule the slaves.
I believe the retail sales numbers are probably close. The railroads and freight haulers are dragging more stuff around the country, quarter by quarter--we have to be selling.
Do you have any idea how much larger the economy is today than it was in 1983 or 1975, other times when official unemployment went over 10%?
We are having another bubble. Stock prices are up this gives the people with money in it the appearance of having more wealth. So they have a bit more cash to spend. Housing prices were 4.5 times house hold income median to median. Sustainability is at 3.0. The start of a bubble looks good. The pop is the hangover. The best cure for a hangover is another drink. The dot com bubble, the housing bubble, and the what bubble? When this bubble pops we aren’t going the be the world’s reserve currency any more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by marcopolo
I still believe your idea of a 4X minimum wage increase is nonsensical, and would have no other effect than to eliminate millions more jobs while driving up the cost of living. If you raise the price of something, less of it gets used--and you want to raise the price of labor. Less will get used. It's a fact.
You are very correct in your assessment. Short term. One side effect of a bump in minimum wage of that magnitude is that it will tend to force a brake in China’s peg with the US dollar. It will allow us to devalue the dollar. The long term effects will be to devalue the dollar and make domestically produced goods more competitive with those produced internationally and it will also tend to fix the housing bubble, wag/price inflation to balance the asset inflation that we have had from 1981 on. Do you want 20 years of pain like Japan has had, or do you want 2 years of pain with a sharp V shaped recovery?
“Things are better than you fear.” Over the next 20 years I think that I have a reasonably accurate understanding of what we are in for. (Japan) Over the next 2 or 3 years the printed money from the fed’s printing press has to go somewhere. We may even see a renewed housing bubble. But without higher wages to service the debt both personal and national we are screwed. Bubbles pop, it is their nature.
We are having another bubble. Stock prices are up this gives the people with money in it the appearance of having more wealth. So they have a bit more cash to spend. Housing prices were 4.5 times house hold income median to median. Sustainability is at 3.0. The start of a bubble looks good. The pop is the hangover. The best cure for a hangover is another drink. The dot com bubble, the housing bubble, and the what bubble? When this bubble pops we aren’t going the be the world’s reserve currency any more.
You are very correct in your assessment. Short term. One side effect of a bump in minimum wage of that magnitude is that it will tend to force a brake in China’s peg with the US dollar. It will allow us to devalue the dollar. The long term effects will be to devalue the dollar and make domestically produced goods more competitive with those produced internationally and it will also tend to fix the housing bubble, wag/price inflation to balance the asset inflation that we have had from 1981 on. Do you want 20 years of pain like Japan has had, or do you want 2 years of pain with a sharp V shaped recovery?
“Things are better than you fear.” Over the next 20 years I think that I have a reasonably accurate understanding of what we are in for. (Japan) Over the next 2 or 3 years the printed money from the fed’s printing press has to go somewhere. We may even see a renewed housing bubble. But without higher wages to service the debt both personal and national we are screwed. Bubbles pop, it is their nature.
We have a difference of opinion, and I respect yours. In fact, I value it greatly. The preponderance of negativity has allowed me to buy percentage ownership interests in great, profitable, blue chip companies at prices that give them room to double over the next few years.
We have a difference of opinion, and I respect yours. In fact, I value it greatly. The preponderance of negativity has allowed me to buy percentage ownership interests in great, profitable, blue chip companies at prices that give them room to double over the next few years.
For your bottom line I hope that you are correct. The housing bubble is putting a big drag on the economy and the feds printing press is lacking traction. We are having asset inflation. Your purchases are probably going to hold value in terms of dollars. But I’d hedge your position with a bit of gold. The DOW gold ratio is headed long term to less than unity. Gold has a several X run left in it. Still a good bet.
The US Dollar is the next bubble to burst. Watch what happens to the USD in 2018 when it's no longer the world's reserve currency.
You said it, well treasuries are having a bubble.
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