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Frankly, I don't give a damn. As burdell stated it was inevitable. Just don't look for this growth of China's to continue at this torrid pace. When China's standard of living starts approaching ours it will fall back to Earth.
If you read through the story, you will read about some experts saying it won’t happen until the 2020s – and China misreports the value of its currency. So there is some doubt. And this article, and mainly the headline, is put out there to get a certain reaction in my opinion.
I have a hard time believing this will happen – at least in this short of time frame for a couple of reasons.
1- China’s economy has grown mainly based on what America consumes. China exports a lot of products to America – look at your labels in Wal-Mart to see where the products are made. So if America declines, China will decline.
2- The big reason for America’s growth is capitalism and a large and free middle class. China’s government and social structure is such that capitalism will only go far before it is pulled back by the government. There will not be a large and free middle class society in China. Why? Because a large and free middle class does not need government – and if that is the case, the middle class gains power and the government loses power. China’s government will not allow that to happen, so growth will only go so far.
If China overtakes us – it will be more about America’s decline and China’s ability to export their goods to other countries. Under normal circumstances, that won’t happen for awhile.
If you read through the story, you will read about some experts saying it won’t happen until the 2020s – and China misreports the value of its currency. So there is some doubt. And this article, and mainly the headline, is put out there to get a certain reaction in my opinion.
Agreed. As with many other economic forecasts (see the multitude of "busted" forecasts about our own economic "recovery"), there is certain an error bar on the time frame.
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I have a hard time believing this will happen – at least in this short of time frame for a couple of reasons.
1- China’s economy has grown mainly based on what America consumes. China exports a lot of products to America – look at your labels in Wal-Mart to see where the products are made. So if America declines, China will decline.
Yes and no. If China continues to play games with their currency, their goods will continue to be cheaper than alternatives. Secondly, China is now Brazil's biggest trader partner, replacing the US. Brazil, as an huge emerging economic power, and others could help China withstand some slowdown on America's side.
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2- The big reason for America’s growth is capitalism and a large and free middle class. China’s government and social structure is such that capitalism will only go far before it is pulled back by the government. There will not be a large and free middle class society in China. Why? Because a large and free middle class does not need government – and if that is the case, the middle class gains power and the government loses power. China’s government will not allow that to happen, so growth will only go so far.
Huh? This line of logic doesn't make sense. Let's dissect the premises here.
(1) America has a "large and free middle class" - Really? Yes, I agree with freedoms granted to us in terms of freedom of speech, religion, etc. But the key here is business freedom. By and large, the level of regulations in the us are many times higher than in China - from working conditions to environmental regulations. In this respect, China's economy acts more like a free market economy than the United States.
(2) A large and free middle class does not need government - Oh really? Have you seen the size of the US government? It's enormous, especially given your premise about the lack of the need of it for this large middle class society in America. The premise is not supported by the facts. In fact, the opposite is true - the larger our middle class society has grown, the stronger and more expansive the government has grown in terms of regulations, subsidies, and entitlement programs.
(3) A growing middle class means the middle class gains power and the government loses power - Again, this is simply untrue here in the US.
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If China overtakes us – it will be more about America’s decline and China’s ability to export their goods to other countries.
Um, exactly. The dollar is losing its value daily. Its status as the "reserve currency" is growing in jeopardy. Americans are complaining about $4/gal gas now? If the dollar continues to devalue and oil moves away from the dollar for pricing, you can absolutely expect gas to approach $8/gal.
Does this mean that China gets to assume all the economic burdens that have been on our shoulders? Will other countries look to China to intervene in their local squabbles? Can we stop funding the lion's share of U.N. expenses? If these things are going to happen, then hell yeah, let China have the "world's leading economy," whatever that means.
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