Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I think it will be very very very difficult for Obama to be re-elected. The economy has not improved enough and the unemployment figures are just too high.
People vote their pocketbooks. If the economy and jobs situation were better I think the situation would be different. I would not personally place a wager on Obama's re-election.
I don't think the Republicans will be foolish enough to pick Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, or Rick Santorum ... they do not have credibility; I do think the GOP will pick a candidate that is very moderate and attractive.
On the other hand, whoever wins it will be with only a very small majority. If Republicans are hoping for some kind of sweeping landslide, they should forget it - Obama will still win the populous states like California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, etc. Furthermore if Obama is defeated, the Democrats might pick up seats in the House and still control the Senate.
It's just a hunch on my part. I can not predict the future. Anything could happen.
Average Americans know whose interests Republicans serve and who's responsible for the mess we're in. I think this will be one of the lowest turnout elections in history as people are sick and tired of the "hold your nose and vote" scenario.
I must say that I have picked the winner by election day for as long as I have been voting for President. That would be since Eisenhower's second term. I have no criteria but my good guesses and just knowing what people were feeling at the time. Of course, the little guy with the big ears screwed me up a bit in 1996 but I picked the right man, even then.
Let me question some of these criteria just a bit. If all the laws passed by the incumbent's party have to be popular I say that Obama may be in trouble. He pushed Stimulus through a powerful majority of Dems in Congress. He jammed his Health plan up our butts and it has been desired repealed by more than half the people ever since. How about Cash for Clunkers, was that one really successful? With repeal hanging over the head of Obamacare unless he does win I wonder about this part working for him.
I think you could look at points 2 and 4 and wonder a bit. We are still over 14 months from the election's scheduled date so serious challengers could still pop up and a third party challenger is almost certain in the person of Ron Paul.
There are no serious scandals the man says. How is Fast and Furious coming along? It could turn out to be very bad for the man.
Numbers 10 and 11 might still turn out against Obama in that I don't know what military or foreign affairs victories he has come up with. Maybe I am being a bit too much against him but I don't think it is time to start planning the final coronation.
The guy is using a formula that has worked, so whether or not you like the result, your partisanship doesn't hold much water.
Quote:
1) Incumbent party picks up seats in preceding mid-term. Point Republicans.
2) There is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination. Point Obama.
3) The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Point Obama.
4) There is no significant third party challenger. Point Obama.
5) The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign. Push (Lichtman declares this one “undecided.”)
6) Real per capita economic growth during the past term is at least equal to mean growth during the previous two terms. Point Republicans.
7) The incumbent administration pushes through major national policy changes. Point Obama.
8) There is no sustained social unrest during the previous term. Point Obama.
9) The incumbent administration has no major scandals. Point Obama.
10) The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign/military affairs failure. Point Obama.
11) The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. Point Obama.
12) The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. Point Republicans.
13) The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Point Obama.
Final score (again, we stress, on Lichtman’s scorecard): 9-3-1, Obama wins. US News has more on Lichtman's decision-making process here.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
