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I don't think the drop in unemployment as a shell game. I think it is dropping from boomer retirements, and that will accelerate over the next year or so. I received a bunch of retirement e-mails this week with people who are checking out at the end of the calendar year. I am guessing low 8s or high 7s for next fall. Not good, but better.
Obviously, if true, this plays for Obama in 2012. He did nothing to deserve it, of course, but then he did nothing to deserves this **** economy either, so might be making it more of an honest game. Namely, since neither Obama nor any of the GOP candidates created this lousy economy, we can judge them on their own merits as leaders.
With real unemployment at 22%, it is going to be a hard sell to call it 7%.
8.6% is a very hard sell now.
I think people are finally waking up to how the unemployment numbers are calculated differently now by the federal government, than they were during the 1930's
Counting who and how many get unemployment benefits, does not reflect the truth.
Let's not get in a pizzing match about the actual number. Unemployment is too damn high, obviously, or else the economy would be doing better. What I am wondering is if people think the boomer retirements will affect unemployment. And if so, what will be the economic and political fall out.
I don't think this administration is lying more (or less) than others. For once, let's avoid the your side lies, but my side doesn't line of thinking. You are entitled to think that, but I don't think anyone else will be convinced.
But I will repeat that I think this unexpected windfall could potentially be of interest, because I think the boomer retirement tsunami is starting.
This article is a bit dated, but it got me thinking:
A healthy economy shouldn't need retirements to generate jobs for incoming workers. That falls under fallacy of the fixed pie. CARPE DIEM: The Fixed Pie Fallacy
But aside from that, a back of envelope calcuation...boomers are approx 25 pct of the total national work force. They are spread over 18 years (1946-1964). So assuming their retirements are linearly distributed, 1 year worth of boomer retirements would amount to about 1.3 pct. of the national work force.
if you measure unemployment the way we used to measure, actually, and I believe these figures, the free market economist who measure it say we have a 22% unemployment rate when you add up everybody who doesn’t look for work or who are just partially employed or the people looking for jobs.
I don't think the drop in unemployment as a shell game. I think it is dropping from boomer retirements, and that will accelerate over the next year or so. I received a bunch of retirement e-mails this week with people who are checking out at the end of the calendar year. I am guessing low 8s or high 7s for next fall. Not good, but better.
Obviously, if true, this plays for Obama in 2012. He did nothing to deserve it, of course, but then he did nothing to deserves this **** economy either, so might be making it more of an honest game. Namely, since neither Obama nor any of the GOP candidates created this lousy economy, we can judge them on their own merits as leaders.
What do you think?
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz
A healthy economy shouldn't need retirements to generate jobs for incoming workers. That falls under fallacy of the fixed pie. CARPE DIEM: The Fixed Pie Fallacy
But aside from that, a back of envelope calcuation...boomers are approx 25 pct of the total national work force. They are spread over 18 years (1946-1964). So assuming their retirements are linearly distributed, 1 year worth of boomer retirements would amount to about 1.3 pct. of the national work force.
I think you guys need to study more.
BLS projected that between 2008 and 2018, 67% of all of jobs "created" would be "created" by Boomers retiring.
As it turns out, that isn't happening. As it turns out, Boomers are not retiring as anticipated. They are working longer to pay down debt and hedge against future losses.
Also, companies are not generally not replacing employee losses, unless it is a critical position. In many case, their position is either eliminated, or absorbed through over-time, and it's cheaper to pay over-time than it is to hire a new employee.
Sorry, can't blame Obama for that, since it has been cheaper to pay over-time since the Clinton days.
In any event, hiring generally increases in November/December in anticipate of holiday spending and purchasing, so there's not much to get excited about.
And remember, the standard isn't 5%, it's 5% and a labor participation rate of 66.4%. If you reach 5% and fail to achieve a labor participation rate equal or greater than 66.4%, then your employment situation is still worse than before the recession.
Your labor participation rate was 58% in the 1950s. At that time, only 6% of US households had two wage-earners.
It steadily increased, until it peaked at 67.2% in 1999, and then has been in steady decline ever since.
A lower labor participation rate means fewer people have jobs or are participating in the work-force.
Nice summary after the opening insult. Didn't know I had to be an expert to post a thread.
Anyhow, labor participation is 64.2%, so certainly not burning up the track there.
One thing I just read is that boomers are likely to be in skilled sectors, but out current unemployment crisis is concentrated in the lower skill levels, so the people suffering will not likely be helped by the boomer retirements much.
I do know that the retirements are delayed for a good number, but another good number are doing pretty well, sort of the haves and have nots. But the haves don't need to work, unless they want to. I don't know the exact numbers.
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