The great interest of the U.S. in Iraq (Iran, controversial, Canada)

[ParkTwain]

I have been reading the many revisions of this web page during the years of the Dubya Administration. A few years ago, early in the Administration's tenure, this page's text was about 3x longer than it is today. But, remarkably, this page still contains a couple of pieces of thought-provoking (even politically controversial) information.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/World_Energy_Hotspots/Iraq.html (broken link)

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Iraq now finds itself in a period of uncertainty and transition after more than three decades of Ba'ath party rule. Following the end of Saddam Hussein's rule in the spring of 2003, Iraq was governed for a year by the "Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)" led by the United States and the United Kingdom. On June 28, 2004, the CPA transferred power to a sovereign Iraqi interim government, with national elections held on January 30, 2005. On May 3, 2005, the new transitional government was sworn in, with Ibrahim Jaafari as Prime Minister. A permanent constitution is to be voted on in an October 15, 2005 referendum. After that, assuming the constitution is approved, elections for a permanent government are scheduled to take place in December 2005. Iraqi oil production currently is around 1.9 million bbl/d, with net exports of about 1.45 million bbl/d.

Prior to the war, during January and February 2003, Iraq was producing around 2.5 million bbl/d and exporting 2.0 million bbl/d, mainly via the country's two U.N.-authorized export routes: the Turkish port of Ceyhan; and the Persian Gulf port of Mina al-Bakr (now called "Basra"). In addition, Iraq reportedly was smuggling 200,000-400,000 bbl/d of crude oil and products via a number of routes, including Turkey, Syria, Iran, Dubai, and Jordan. Today, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan is frequently offline due to sabotage (e.g., at the end of February 2005), and the Basra port has periodic problems as well.

In the years preceding the war, and in anticipation of the eventual lifting of economic sanctions, Iraq had signed or otherwise negotiated several potentially lucrative oil and gas deals (which will come into effect when sanctions are lifted) with companies from Russia, France, and China, and also had invited international partners to invest in natural gas projects worth $4.2 billion. Following the war, the status of these agreements is now somewhat unclear.

[Remember which nations disagreed with the U.S. the most strongly about the invasion of Iraq. --PT]

According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Iraq contains 115 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the third largest in the world (behind Saudi Arabia and Canada). Estimates of Iraq's oil reserves and resources vary widely, however, given that only 10 percent or so of the country has been explored. Some analysts (the Baker Institute, Center for Global Energy Studies, the Federation of American Scientists, etc.) believe, for instance, that deep oil-bearing formations located mainly in the vast Western Desert region, for instance, could yield large additional oil resources (possibly another 100 billion barrels or more), but have not been explored. Other analysts, such as the US Geological Survey, are not as optimistic, with median estimates for additional oil reserves closer to 45 billion barrels. Historically, Iraqi production peaked in December 1979 at 3.7 million bbl/d, and then in July 1990, just prior to its invasion of Kuwait, at 3.5 million bbl/d. As of early August 2005, however, Iraq was producing only 1.9 million bbl/d.
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