New Study Confirms that Convicted Felons Overwhelmingly Support Democrats (crime rate, terrorists, states)

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by greywar

Hmmmm could be that many people who have spent time in prison realize that the authoritarian state that some republicans want isnt all that its cracked up to be?

There could be a LOT of differing reasons. Maybe that when forced to choose a party they pick the first one alphabetically?

Maybe they see the Republicans talking about ever harsher sentencing guidelines and think its a bad idea?

Really this is just trolling nonsense.

I don't know where you get the idea it is trolling nonsense or that Republicans want harsher sentencing. .I do understand where you get the idea they might just pick the first party, but otherwise, I don't think reasoning makes a lot of sense. I can see other reasons why they may favor the Democrat party though.

[uggabugga]

Originally Posted by freemkt

Which works out roughly to... about half of the white felons and 80 percent of the non-white felons would vote Democrat, which isn't much different than the non-felon population.

where did the study i cited make such a claim?

[Crossfire600]

Originally Posted by greywar

Hmmmm could be that many people who have spent time in prison realize that the authoritarian state that some republicans want isnt all that its cracked up to be?

There could be a LOT of differing reasons. Maybe that when forced to choose a party they pick the first one alphabetically?

Maybe they see the Republicans talking about ever harsher sentencing guidelines and think its a bad idea?

Really this is just trolling nonsense.

Nah, it's a crystal clear reflection of the entitlement attitude. As I sometimes say, it really is that simple.

[Little-Acorn]

New Study Confirms that Convicted Felons Overwhelmingly Support Democrats


Professional courtesy.

[freemkt]

Originally Posted by uggabugga

where did the study i cited make such a claim?

Quote:
The researchers estimate that the disenfranchised felon population is composed of approximately
35 percent ex-felons, 28 percent probationers, 9 percent parolees, and 27 percent prison
inmates. The impact of felon disenfranchisement would have been greatly reduced had ex-felons,
parolees, and probationers—all citizens not currently in prison—been permitted to vote in all
states. Their survey data suggest that Democratic candidates would have received about seven
out of every ten votes cast by this disenfranchised population in 14 of the last 15 Senate election
years.
“By removing those with Democratic preferences from the pool of eligible voters, felon
disenfranchisement has provided a small but clear advantage to Republican candidates
in every presidential and senatorial election from 1972 to 2000”
https://www.soc.umn.edu/~uggen/Uggen_Manza_PR_03.pdf



I made a ballpark approximation of felon demographics based on Bureau of Justice Statistics data cited in Wikipedia:

According to the BJS non-Hispanic blacks accounted for 39.4% of the prison and jail population in 2009.[17] Hispanics (of all races) were 20.6% of those incarcerated in 2009.[17]


17 ^ Jump up to: a b Prison Inmates at Midyear 2009 - Statistical Tables - US Bureau of Justice Statistics, published June 2010. See tables 16-19 for totals and rates for blacks, Hispanics, and whites. Broken down by year, gender, and age. See page 2 for "Selected characteristics of inmates held in custody in state or federal prisons or in local jails". It has the overall incarceration rate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_an..._United_States

[uggabugga]

Originally Posted by freemkt

Quote:
The researchers estimate that the disenfranchised felon population is composed of approximately
35 percent ex-felons, 28 percent probationers, 9 percent parolees, and 27 percent prison
inmates. The impact of felon disenfranchisement would have been greatly reduced had ex-felons,
parolees, and probationers—all citizens not currently in prison—been permitted to vote in all
states. Their survey data suggest that Democratic candidates would have received about seven
out of every ten votes cast by this disenfranchised population in 14 of the last 15 Senate election
years.
“By removing those with Democratic preferences from the pool of eligible voters, felon
disenfranchisement has provided a small but clear advantage to Republican candidates
in every presidential and senatorial election from 1972 to 2000”
https://www.soc.umn.edu/~uggen/Uggen_Manza_PR_03.pdf



I made a ballpark approximation of felon demographics based on Bureau of Justice Statistics data cited in Wikipedia:

According to the BJS non-Hispanic blacks accounted for 39.4% of the prison and jail population in 2009.[17] Hispanics (of all races) were 20.6% of those incarcerated in 2009.[17]


17 ^ Jump up to: a b Prison Inmates at Midyear 2009 - Statistical Tables - US Bureau of Justice Statistics, published June 2010. See tables 16-19 for totals and rates for blacks, Hispanics, and whites. Broken down by year, gender, and age. See page 2 for "Selected characteristics of inmates held in custody in state or federal prisons or in local jails". It has the overall incarceration rate.

Race and crime in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

still doesn't explain how you come up with:

about half of the white felons and 80 percent of the non-white felons would vote Democrat

[Scotty011]

Originally Posted by Little-Acorn

New Study Confirms that Convicted Felons Overwhelmingly Support Democrats


Professional courtesy.

LMAO!!!!! So true.

[freemkt]

Originally Posted by Little-Acorn

New Study Confirms that Convicted Felons Overwhelmingly Support Democrats


Professional courtesy.

LOL but demographics are sufficient to work it out:


According to the BJS non-Hispanic blacks accounted for 39.4% of the prison and jail population in 2009.[17] Hispanics (of all races) were 20.6% of those incarcerated in 2009.[17]

Race and crime in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


If you looked at a group of people who were 39.4% non-Hiispanic black and 20.6 Hispanic, would you expect this group to not vote Democrat?

[freemkt]

Originally Posted by uggabugga

still doesn't explain how you come up with:

Quote:
about half of the white felons and 80 percent of the non-white felons would vote Democrat

Numbers I've seen suggest that about 90% of blacks and 70% of Hiispanics vote Democrat, which works out to about 80% of non-white voters. We know that BJS dats suggest about 60% of the incarcerated population is black of Hispanic, and the simple calculation .8 * .6 = .48 suggests that if felons have the same political preferences of their non-felon black and Hispanic peers, the proportion of felons voting Democrat is roughly equal to 48% plus the Democrat component of white felons. To get to "about seven out of ten" felons voting Democrat would require the 40% of white felons to split about 22%-18% or 55%-45% Democrat. Since "about seven out of every ten votes" could reasonably be anywhere from about 68% to 72% (or maybe a slightly larger range) a white split of 20%-20% (50%-50%) is within the range of possibility and yields exactly seven out of ten felons, and none of my numbers are way out there.

[burdell]

Originally Posted by uggabugga

this simply confirms what we already knew.

It does, it confirms how delusional the right is in believing a 'study' of only three states, excuse me, three cherry-picked states, is representative of the entire nation.

Then again, coming from those who think one localized snowfall and/or temperature is indicative of global conditions I suppose we shouldn't be surprised, eh?