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1) The 70% figure that's been cited doesn't match up with the BLS' own projections (that have been cited).
2) The 70% figure includes those of any age on disability (!)
3) Many women turning 65 don't/didn't work or at least haven't since they were young adults; far more young women are needing to enter the labor force.
4) As far as the argument that some young people turning 18 are doing other things, that's quite true, but I think the point is just picking one point to represent that most in the age group will enter the labor force at some time between 16 and 25 or so. This is similar to looking at age 65 as retirement age even though people retire at many different ages. Moreover, it's important to note that many/most students enter the labor force (or would in a better economy) to seek part time and/or summer work.
5) People over 65 (and younger) are not retiring at the levels predicted.
I will try to expand on this tonight. I don't have time to delve into an in-depth analysis now.
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 05-13-2014 at 09:52 AM..
But there is no monthly reports on SS/medicare new signups each month.
That's not really relevent - nor is the "there's xx number of people turning 18 vs xx number of people turning 65". What's relevent is that a higher and higher PERCENTAGE of the population is older (and not just 65+ older either, since it's pretty evident that people BEGIN drifting away from the workforce long before they turn 65 - one needs only look at the LFPR (both today and in the past) of workers in late 40s and early/mid/late 50s to see that the older the age group the lower the LFPR is. And as a higher and higher percentage of the population is represented by those older age groups, the LFPR of the country AS A WHOLE is going to drop as well. The LFPR has always peaked between the ages of 35-44. After that, folks begin drifting away from the workforce
Below are the LFPRs by age group for 1992,2002,2012 and (projected) 2022. As can be clearly seen, after age 44, folks begin to drift away from the labor force - and that has ALWAYS been the case. It IS true that more people are continuing to work longer today than in the past (and that projection continues into the future) but the trend remains that the older you get, the more likely you are to have left the workforce - and that TREND begans around age 45. It's not a big drop between 45 and 54 but after age 55 the LFPR drops rapidly and the VERY SAME PEOPLE who in 1992 (when they were between 35 and 44) who had a LFPR of over 85% (85.1%) in 2012 (when they were between 55 and 64) only had a LFPR of 64.5%. This indicates that roughly ONE QUARTER of workers left the workforce BEFORE they were eligible for full SS. When we look at the 55-64 years in more detail we can really see that by the time folks enter the 2nd half of that age group (ie 60-64) their LFPR has plummeted even further - down to a mere 55.2%. This means that more than 1/3rd of folks leave the labor force BEFORE they are even eligable for full SS (usually this is when 1/2 of a couple retires early while the other continues working until they are able to collect SS)
So, the 65 age is just a handy number to use when talking about folks retiring. The fact is however, 1/3rd of working folks retire BEFORE that - which means that even more Babyboomers have already retired than the "age 65" benchmark indicates.
Marginally attached and "reasons other than discouragement" -other is the second largest category under discouraged workers.
((5) Includes those who did not actively look for work in the prior 4 weeks for such reasons as child-care and transportation problems, as well as a small number for which reason for nonparticipation was not ascertained.)
Seems like they could just ask people if they are retiring, LOL.
That's a lot of "do not want a job nows". Especially, with the cost of everything rising.
With the bubble popping, many skilled workers over 45, ended up out of work. Age is just one more reason to filter job candidates. Ultimately, more jobs are needed, regardless.
The economy is recovering very slowly, too slowly for many of us. And where did they put these 288,000 new workers?
Employment gains were pretty much across the board:
"...Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 288,000 in April. Job growth
had averaged 190,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In April, employment
growth was widespread, led by gains in professional and business services,
retail trade, food services and drinking places, and construction.
Professional and business services added 75,000 jobs in April. Employment in
this industry had increased by an average of 55,000 per month over the prior
12 months...
Retail trade employment rose by 35,000 in April. Over the past 12 months,
employment in this industry has grown by 327,000...
In April, employment rose in food services and drinking places (+33,000),
about in line with its prior 12-month average gain of 28,000 per month.
In April, employment in construction grew by 32,000, with job growth in heavy
and civil engineering construction (+11,000) and residential building (+7,000).
Construction has added 189,000 jobs over the past year, with almost three-fourths
of the gain occurring in the past 6 months.
Health care employment increased by 19,000 in April, about in line with the
prior 12-month average gain of 17,000 per month...
Mining added 10,000 jobs in April, with most of the gain in support activities
for mining (+7,000)..."
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