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This is a huge problem for the GOP, and is never honestly answered by the morons who listen to talk radio. Quite simply, the GOP MUST win Ohio, Florida and Virginia and North Carolina, then either get Colorado or Nevada to eeke out a victory. Of these 6 states, they have gone 1 for 12 in the past two elections - which is not good. Additionally, the Demographics of Florida and Nevada are making them "lean Democrat" states, and doubling down on an unelectable "Principled Conservative" will not carry the day. It's just math. The map looks like this.....
1 there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000.
2 the Republicans have to win the outsized majority of those "swing" electoral votes to win the presidency. If the Democrats can hold onto just 24 percent of the electoral votes "in play," they win the White House.
It's hard to deny that, all else being equal, the (D) start out with an advantage. That said, I'm not sure all else will be equal, as the GOP has been doing very well up and down the ballot (even in this year's off-year elections). In addition, HRC is particularly annoying/rephrehensible, so she may not get the legions of followers that Obama got.
As much as I hate to admit it, HRC does have the edge in 2016. That said, she's far from unbeatable. The difference is that, even in a strong GOP year, she's unlikely to be that far from 270. Romney barely broke 200 EV and McCain was way below 200. HRC will likely receive more EV than Romney even if she loses.
No. Reagan vs. Mondale in 1984. Unless you're being facetious.
keep up, i was already corrected about that a few pages back, and i acknowledged my mistake and the correction.
in the end we do not know, a year out, how the general election will play out until it does. and we dont even have the nominees from each party yet, so how can anyone say which party will win the white house in 2016? too much can happen between now and then.
It may not make it a red state, but it shows that the state is turning more red than it is blue. Like I said, Republicans haven't hold majorities that large in the Commonwealth since the 1950's.
I disagree.
Admittedly I live in Philly but have seen the populous important wealthy suburbs of Philadelphia ... Montgomery County, Chester County, Bucks County, etc. make a dramatic shift from being Republican to Democrat. Before moving to Philly I lived in the Lehigh Valley in Northampton County - which is more Dem and Rep, and that includes Lehigh County as well. Carville's famous quote is not exactly accurate because not only Philly in the east, the 'Burgh in west ... there are Democratic pockets in the rest of "Alabama" - the aforementioned Lehigh Valley (Allentown is the 3rd most populous city in the state), Erie (#4 in population), Harrisburg (the city itself anyway), an the Wyoming Valley (Scranton, Wilkes Barre, Pittston, and Nanticote) lean more blue than red.
.....
in the end we do not know, a year out, how the general election will play out until it does. and we dont even have the nominees from each party yet, so how can anyone say which party will win the white house in 2016? too much can happen between now and then.
DNC has already nominated King Hillary. It's just a matter of the coronation now.
She is the defacto establishment candidate in a party that has alienated large portions of the electorate. (namely those who work and pay taxes) How it will end because of it depends upon the idiots in the GOP and if they nominate someone who can beat her, or force through an unelectable establishment candidate like they did in '12 with Romney.
If they nominate Trump, then King Hillary will be back in the Hamptons socializing with her very rich hedge fund friends in the Hamptons come a year from now. And there is thinking that Hillary might not even hold California.
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there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000. 
