Dems start electoral college with 240 votes, how do they loose? (John Kerry, Kerry)
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Michigan and Pennsylvania are TOSS UPS at the moment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead
Best joke of the day. Both are solid blue states.
I don't live in Michigan but I do live in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is NOT a "toss up" state. We have become a solid Democratic state. This week's elections just underscore that point.
Pennsylvania went for the Democrat in the Presidential races the last six races.
I don't live in Michigan but I do live in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is NOT a "toss up" state. We have become a solid Democratic state. This week's elections just underscore that point.
Pennsylvania went for the Democrat in the Presidential races the last six races.
You realize that the Democratic judge candidates outspent Republican by a margin of 10-to-1, correct? If the tables were turned, people like yourself would accuse the Koch Brothers of buying the election.
You realize that the Democratic judge candidates outspent Republican by a margin of 10-to-1, correct? If the tables were turned, people like yourself would accuse the Koch Brothers of buying the election.
So what?
Even if the GOP candidates weren't outspent, they would have lost.
There are more registered Democrats in Pennsylvania than Republicans.
This year was an important mayoral race in Philadelphia and the Democrats turned out. In Philly, registered Republicans make up only 17% of the voters.
Even if the GOP candidates weren't outspent, they would have lost.
There are more registered Democrats in Pennsylvania than Republicans.
This year was an important mayoral race in Philadelphia and the Democrats turned out. In Philly, registered Republicans make up only 17% of the voters.
You do realize that Commonwealth Congress has the largest majorities in both the Senate and the House since the 1950's, right? Does that not count for anything?
At the very least, it preps quality candidates for higher office. PA's Democratic rising star, Kathleen Kane, is likely going to jail. I can't imagine Wolf will come out of this budget impasse looking very good either. Once the people of the Commonwealth know that he is adamantly against any kind of liquor reform, while at the same time proposing taxes on many household goods that would adversely affect the poor, his poll numbers will drop. The smartest thing Republicans could have ever done was run those "Taxin' Tom" TV ads last year. That's a name that will surely stick.
All fine and dandy - but how does this make Pennsylvania a Red State in 2016?
I am reminded of the immortal insight of James Carville, who said "Pennsylvania is Philadephia and Pittshburgh, with Alabama in-between".
It may not make it a red state, but it shows that the state is turning more red than it is blue. Like I said, Republicans haven't hold majorities that large in the Commonwealth since the 1950's.
Having someone on the ticket that wins statewide races in the toss up states or having someone on the ticket in a blue state that has support statewide that can turn a blue state red.
Lack of enthusiasm and low turn out for the democrats. Virginia just had a significant republican win.
During the same time period you listed the Democrats are down to what 17 Governors? That is a significant decrees. 33 Republican Governors shows that the Republicans can carry Blue States. If they have one of those Republicans in a key state even in a VP position they have the ability to succeed.
You hit the nail on the head. It's going to depend on turnout.
Unfortunately, during non-Presidential election years, Democratic leaning voters don't turn out. That may account for why a previously dead-in-the water, Tea Bagger zealot, Matt Bevin, who had alienated his own Party bigwigs, was able to win KY governorship - due to a 30% voter turnout.
I see. A tangible development, but this evolved from a discussion about the Democrat's electoral advantage.
It raises a good point, though - many people have a bit of an electoral "cognative dissonance" when trying to reconcile local politics with Presidential elections. Almost everywhere outside of Oklahoma (and perhaps there as well), demographic trends STRONGLY favor Democrats.
There was a fairly good piece about this in the British press today......
1st Nate Silver is a math nerd who isn't a liberal.
2nd If you read his argument, the popular vote would have to be almost 50-50 like Bush in 2000. This isn't happening, I really expect the same results as the 2012 Obama vs. Romney.
One key cavet is the fact that Obama was black, maybe 5 to 15% of old white democrats wouldn't vote for him because of this. A lot of old time D's from the south have sat out two presidential elections.
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