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There were only 3 pollsters who got it right. Rasmussen was one.
Your other point is spot on; Rasmussen consistently shows a higher approval rating that other outfits. But Rasmussen is the only pollster who relies on 'likely voters' as opposed to 'registered voters' or (shudder) 'adults'.
My own view is that pollsters who rely on 'adults' should be ignored.
I'm not sure what list you're referencing, but I've seen more than 3 that were very close.
I don't know if I trust Rasmussen totally (as mentioned, they are consistently high) - their polling method alone is enough to raise a few eyebrows (in 2018).
Rasmussen relies on people with landlines. Who do you know who still has a landline? I know of two households with landlines--my parents who are in their late 80s, and my brother who has a business line that he's had for a few decades, and for practical business reasons he has kept.
I know of no one else who still has a landline. The majority of people who do are senior citizens. How can such narrowly focused polling be representative of the whole?
It's not. That's why Rasmussen is always an outlier.
There were only 3 pollsters who got it right. Rasmussen was one.
Your other point is spot on; Rasmussen consistently shows a higher approval rating that other outfits. But Rasmussen is the only pollster who relies on 'likely voters' as opposed to 'registered voters' or (shudder) 'adults'.
My own view is that pollsters who rely on 'adults' should be ignored.
This is not true. Most pollsters issue different results from the same poll simultaneously- overall #s, numbers weighted for demographics, all voters, likely voters, etc. The more statistically savvy folks always break into tabs and the various components to extrapolate more.
One big issue is how they determine likely voters and how they weigh for demographics. If they can't get a better grasp on who is showing up to vote, errors occur. In 08 a lot of polls were hesitant to weigh minority voters as heavily in advance as their actual turnouts were on election day. In 16 minorities slightly underperformed and working class voters both surged and swung at the last moment in key swing states specifically.
Back to the topic of approval- I do not think the 47% number vibes with the vote swings we have been seeing in all the special elections. Even in the districts with Republican winners- the percentages are trending significantly towards Ds/away from Rs. That should not be happening with president whose popularity was approaching break even/50%.
Actually, past cuts to the top rate have almost always occurred when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress.
1964, top rate cut from 91% to 77%
1965, top rate cut from 77% to 70%
1982, top rate cut from 70% to 50% (Republican Senate)
1987, top rate cut from 50% to 38.5%
1988, top rate cut from 38.5% to 33%
1991, top rate cut from 33% to 31%
You wanna give us a valid link for your numbers above?
Either way, I am not some mindless advocate for party politics (unlike some here). Tax breaks for the upper 1% at the expense of the middle and working class are wrong no matter which party implements them. I am not concerned so much with past history as I want to see viable measures taken in the here and now.
I dislike BOTH the Clintons - especially Bill who sold the country out to his Wall Street pals. A wrong is a wrong whether committed by a Democrat or a Republican. Why do so many people have trouble with such a basic concept?
41, 46 or whatever why do you and some others love to talk about ratings. Polls have been proven to be wrong more often than right and make little difference when it is time to vote. Remember ratings are often based more on personalty than on success in a position. They can also be judged by how a question is asked. Have you ever been called and asked how you would rate a candidate or a person holding an office?
I know of no one else who still has a landline. The majority of people who do are senior citizens. How can such narrowly focused polling be representative of the whole?
Everyone should keep their landlines in case if emergencies.
Which other orgs poll likely voters like Rasmussen does? No other poll counts. Besides, it's far too early to worry about polls but I understand the desperation of the Loonies looking for a glimmer of hope.
Old white people are the group most likely to actually show up on election day.
Sorry, but you're wrong:
Quote:
Millennials and Gen Xers Outvoted Boomers and Older Generations in 2016 Election
"Baby Boomers and other older Americans are no longer the majority of voters in U.S. presidential elections.
Millennials and Generation Xers cast 69.6 million votes in the 2016 general election, a slight majority of the 137.5 million total votes cast, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. Meanwhile, Boomers and older voters represented fewer than half of all votes for the first time in decades. The shift has occurred as Millennials accounted for a growing share of the electorate and as those in the Silent and Greatest generations aged and died."
You know your president is doing bad when his fans celebrate an approval rating of 46%. When Obama's approval ratings were at 46% his fans were disappointed.
When the peace prize winner's approval rating was 46% he had already destroyed Libya, used a billion dollars in Cruise Missiles, and promised us all the savings we would have with his namesake: Obama care. But, he was so Articulate And you wonder why we have Trump?
So, your dream is to kill off "white people's" parents and grand parents? You must be a member of the Nation of Islam or some other similar organization
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And you wonder why we have Trump?
