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So if robots do every job and humans are on a minimum sustainable government wage, who will provide the demand for these robot jobs if no one can afford the service they manufacturer, create, think of? Duhhhh
Hence many of the misgivings about what is to come.
The ideal might be that the idea of "affording" something becomes obsolete. Complete post-scarcity. Money disappears and price ceases to be a rationing device.
This is the earth of Star Trek during the Next Gen years -- it's where communism (where each receives according to his need and of course contributes according to his ability) and libertarianism (self-government, complete sovereignty of the individual) meet and have a baby. Post-scarcity. We're a long LONG way from that though. I think getting there is going to be rough, and there are so many sinister ways things could go long before that and "disruptive" technologies that could come along before then that it's hard to see that ever happening.
I tend to think the complete disincentivization of human work won't end well. And I struggle to think that there's really a huge gap between (as I mentioned in my opening post) the point where "human work is obsolete" and the point where "human existence is obsolete."
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It's interesting to note that while some are warning about the dangers of AI, while others think AI will just be a tool for good under total control of humanity, and everything in between, there are many at the cutting edge of AI research who are actually okay with the idea of AI being a creation of humanity that obsoletes humanity, that artificial, conscious superintelligence has been the end goal of science and technology, civilization, homo sapiens, or even all life on earth.
I think it's interesting to note that of the scientists who are working with Deep Dream, who helped AlphaGo beat the best Go players in the world, no single one really has a complete grasp of what that AI does or how its algorithms create intelligent choices -- it's become so big and the process has become so... organic for lack of a better term that one person can't grasp what they've got. And we're still basically in the infancy of this. Maybe if we ever create a truly conscious AGI we should start the naming of the years over -- 1 AP = Anno Puer = Year of Our Child.
Last edited by Nepenthe; 08-14-2016 at 05:23 PM..
Reason: took out an extraneous word
If you can't read either of these through, due to paywalls or whatever, PM me and I'll happily send you the full text (not allowed to do so publicly on CD).
In my line of work, I get to watch automation and AI take over human tasks on... let's say a monthly basis. It's subtle, but it's happening. Forecasts are being made for needing vastly fewer humans as time progresses.
Workers in a wide variety of industries and roles will find themselves without a job. AI is particularly concerning because it doesn’t really depend on physical infrastructure (i.e. robots) being built. It's software. At some point the best surgeon in the world will be AI, the best scientist in the world will be AI, the best economist in the world will be AI, etc., and soon after that point there’s no real reason ALL the surgeons, ALL the scientists, and ALL the economists (and lots of other intellectual labor roles) couldn’t be AI.
Jobs that involve vehicles and require drivers will likely be replaced almost completely by technology within the next 5 to 10 years.
Technology will one day virtually eliminate the need for human work. (There may also come a day when technology may virtually eliminate the need for human existence.) The WaPo article talks about Universal Basic Income (UBI -- basically, everyone becomes a welfare recipient, allocated the same amount of money to be spent on minimum subsistence). There will be vast changes in how the economy functions, as capitalism and human innovation and entrepreneurship as we know them are phased out. It will essentially be a form of technologically-mandated communism.
My personal strategy is to try and retire early (I'm currently almost 42 and would like to retire at 55) and then get out at 75. The world I grew up in and prospered inside of will be gone, replaced by a vast technological form of Collectivism, and to avoid vast amounts of life-sucking cognitive dissonance, I feel the best course of action will likely be to take my exit.
I just wanted to post this because I looked through the Politics and Other Controversies open threads and didn't see anything even touching on the fact that life as we know it will be changing quite a lot -- in fact that change will be accelerating mightily.
"In my line of work, I get to watch automation and AI take over human tasks on... let's say a monthly basis. It's subtle, but it's happening. Forecasts are being made for needing vastly fewer humans as time progresses"
When in the history of man has it NOT.
When man "discovered how to make the lance, bow and arrow, rock throwers were no longer needed.
The horse replaced walking.
The animal pulled cart replaced carrying tings your self
The Buggy, stage coach replaced the cart.
The automobile replaced the horse because of the "automation of the assembly line.
I could go on and on and on for hours.
The point is as 1 form of "technology is "invented" ANOTHER takes its place.
Jobs are lost in the old fields and NEW jobs are created in the "new" fields.
I understand all of that, believe me. But what we're talking about is a) systems that could potentially do anything better than any human, b) the potential instantiation of general intelligence in a machine, c) a situation where it's not evident that human minds will be in demand for any new form of productive work, and d) the potential for what we might call superintelligence.
We're not talking about "jobs are lost in the old fields and new jobs are created in the new fields" but rather "synthetic intelligence is able to take on all the old jobs and all the new jobs with vastly higher efficiency and accuracy than human intelligence at vastly reduced cost."
Engine power replaced horse power and look what happened to the population of horses. AI will do the same thing to brain power. And will it have the same effect on the population of brains?
I understand all of that, believe me. But what we're talking about is a) systems that could potentially do anything better than any human, b) the potential instantiation of general intelligence in a machine, c) a situation where it's not evident that human minds will be in demand for any new form of productive work, and d) the potential for what we might call superintelligence.
We're not talking about "jobs are lost in the old fields and new jobs are created in the new fields" but rather "synthetic intelligence is able to take on all the old jobs and all the new jobs with vastly higher efficiency and accuracy than human intelligence at vastly reduced cost."
It takes a LOT of people to design and maintain them.
cost of companies will be decreased when letting robots into their companies, but what about the human labor? robots fights are more interesting than this replacement i guess
We were discussing this the other day. I work in the engineering field and over the past few years, our company has been buying robots and other newer technology that has reduced the need for more workers. Just a few months ago, we were discussing hiring a new employee to assist in the field work, but it was decided that we would purchase a robot instead. Because of this, a potential new worker lost his opportunity for to be hired. The robot has been very useful and in the short term, it was probably the right choice.
The downside to this is that we lost the opportunity to bring someone in who would later grow with the company and perhaps become a highly skilled and valued worker. Robots are reducing the need for entry level workers, but these are the workers who would eventually become the ones with valuable experience.
Hence many of the misgivings about what is to come.
The ideal might be that the idea of "affording" something becomes obsolete. Complete post-scarcity. Money disappears and price ceases to be a rationing device.
This is the earth of Star Trek during the Next Gen years -- it's where communism (where each receives according to his need and of course contributes according to his ability) and libertarianism (self-government, complete sovereignty of the individual) meet and have a baby. Post-scarcity. We're a long LONG way from that though. I think getting there is going to be rough, and there are so many sinister ways things could go long before that and "disruptive" technologies that could come along before then that it's hard to see that ever happening.
I tend to think the complete disincentivization of human work won't end well. And I struggle to think that there's really a huge gap between (as I mentioned in my opening post) the point where "human work is obsolete" and the point where "human existence is obsolete."
The idea behind a basic minimum income is that we simply pay people just for existing. I can't imagine a way where this could be feasible. The people that would be pushed out of work first are those with lower intelligence. They wouldn't have the ability to retrain or move into a more advanced field. Those with higher intelligence would work the skilled jobs, while those with low intelligence do nothing, except eat and breed. That's hardly a sustainable model.
We are already in this situation to some extent. A large portion of the population is out of the workforce and they feel resentful about their inability to prosper and attain material goods on the same level as those who do work. This will only increase with advancement in AI and robots.
We will see large scale riots and civil unrest. We will not have a utopia where people happily do nothing while getting paid only enough to survive.
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