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If you can't read either of these through, due to paywalls or whatever, PM me and I'll happily send you the full text (not allowed to do so publicly on CD).
In my line of work, I get to watch automation and AI take over human tasks on... let's say a monthly basis. It's subtle, but it's happening. Forecasts are being made for needing vastly fewer humans as time progresses.
Workers in a wide variety of industries and roles will find themselves without a job. AI is particularly concerning because it doesn’t really depend on physical infrastructure (i.e. robots) being built. It's software. At some point the best surgeon in the world will be AI, the best scientist in the world will be AI, the best economist in the world will be AI, etc., and soon after that point there’s no real reason ALL the surgeons, ALL the scientists, and ALL the economists (and lots of other intellectual labor roles) couldn’t be AI.
Jobs that involve vehicles and require drivers will likely be replaced almost completely by technology within the next 5 to 10 years.
Technology will one day virtually eliminate the need for human work. (There may also come a day when technology may virtually eliminate the need for human existence.) The WaPo article talks about Universal Basic Income (UBI -- basically, everyone becomes a welfare recipient, allocated the same amount of money to be spent on minimum subsistence). There will be vast changes in how the economy functions, as capitalism and human innovation and entrepreneurship as we know them are phased out. It will essentially be a form of technologically-mandated communism.
My personal strategy is to try and retire early (I'm currently almost 42 and would like to retire at 55) and then get out at 75. The world I grew up in and prospered inside of will be gone, replaced by a vast technological form of Collectivism, and to avoid vast amounts of life-sucking cognitive dissonance, I feel the best course of action will likely be to take my exit.
I just wanted to post this because I looked through the Politics and Other Controversies open threads and didn't see anything even touching on the fact that life as we know it will be changing quite a lot -- in fact that change will be accelerating mightily.
Its been discussed in the economics forums a lot lately here on CD. Some folks are realizing that this time its different then in the past. Decent AI can do almost anything a human can.
We have talked about it in this forum a few times, but most people here refuse to acknowledge that in the very near future, there will be no jobs left save for a few very highly skilled ones.
This is one of my favorite videos, which I have posted in this forum before, which I think lays it out in terms everyone can understand:
There will need to be some form of basic income because there will simply be no way for people to earn their daily bread any longer. And it's at this point where typically you get all of the people who have their heads in the sand who start decrying how they don't want to support all those lazy people who won't work, not understanding that it's not that they won't work, it's that there will be no work. And they will be among those without work. Nearly all of us will.
There is a freight train charging down the tracks at us, but we have our backs to it and are refusing to acknowledge it. But we won't be able to ignore it for much longer.
There will need to be some form of basic income because there will simply be no way for people to earn their daily bread any longer. And it's at this point where typically you get all of the people who have their heads in the sand who start decrying how they don't want to support all those lazy people who won't work, not understanding that it's not that they won't work, it's that there will be no work. And they will be among those without work. Nearly all of us will.
I've been thinking on this a lot lately. I think the direction technology takes will determine if a basic income occurs. The upcoming changes really can vary greatly, from biological molecular assembly, to nanofactories, to AI. And some become insanely liberating if certain things occur.
Lets talk about nanofactories. Lets say the first ones are made by corporations, and in the ensuing competition they begin releasing smaller personally owned ones. The possibilities from there become mind boggling. Or what if theres a linux version of them?
This will result in no basic income-because no income is truly needed anymore. So maybe I will remove that as my tagline.
Quote:
There is a freight train charging down the tracks at us, but we have our backs to it and are refusing to acknowledge it. But we won't be able to ignore it for much longer.
I bet we can ignore it for about another 4-5 years. I figure self driving cars start really showing up in large numbers in 2019. But even then people will ignore it for a bit. But 2019 or 2020 will really begin to be when everything changes. Its hard to guess exactly when, but my best guess is that's the year we will have a AI that can be ran on reasonably priced hardware. And when that occurs jobs will disappear at such rates that it will be impossible to ignore.
If you can't read either of these through, due to paywalls or whatever, PM me and I'll happily send you the full text (not allowed to do so publicly on CD).
In my line of work, I get to watch automation and AI take over human tasks on... let's say a monthly basis. It's subtle, but it's happening. Forecasts are being made for needing vastly fewer humans as time progresses.
Workers in a wide variety of industries and roles will find themselves without a job. AI is particularly concerning because it doesn’t really depend on physical infrastructure (i.e. robots) being built. It's software. At some point the best surgeon in the world will be AI, the best scientist in the world will be AI, the best economist in the world will be AI, etc., and soon after that point there’s no real reason ALL the surgeons, ALL the scientists, and ALL the economists (and lots of other intellectual labor roles) couldn’t be AI.
Jobs that involve vehicles and require drivers will likely be replaced almost completely by technology within the next 5 to 10 years.
Technology will one day virtually eliminate the need for human work. (There may also come a day when technology may virtually eliminate the need for human existence.) The WaPo article talks about Universal Basic Income (UBI -- basically, everyone becomes a welfare recipient, allocated the same amount of money to be spent on minimum subsistence). There will be vast changes in how the economy functions, as capitalism and human innovation and entrepreneurship as we know them are phased out. It will essentially be a form of technologically-mandated communism.
My personal strategy is to try and retire early (I'm currently almost 42 and would like to retire at 55) and then get out at 75. The world I grew up in and prospered inside of will be gone, replaced by a vast technological form of Collectivism, and to avoid vast amounts of life-sucking cognitive dissonance, I feel the best course of action will likely be to take my exit.
I just wanted to post this because I looked through the Politics and Other Controversies open threads and didn't see anything even touching on the fact that life as we know it will be changing quite a lot -- in fact that change will be accelerating mightily.
Nice. we need to tax the labor performed by ais to cover the cost of having our work force out of work.
Its been discussed in the economics forums a lot lately here on CD. Some folks are realizing that this time its different then in the past. Decent AI can do almost anything a human can.
Lets talk about nanofactories. Lets say the first ones are made by corporations, and in the ensuing competition they begin releasing smaller personally owned ones. The possibilities from there become mind boggling. Or what if theres a linux version of them?
The cost of CNC has dropped by several orders of magnitude. Home built ones are fun to play with.
The more expensive labor becomes and cheaper automation gets, the quicker this trend will progress. If we raise minimum wage high enough, it will become cheaper to have automated kiosks replacing cashiers at McDonald's. What can a human cashier do that can't be automated?
The more expensive labor becomes and cheaper automation gets, the quicker this trend will progress. If we raise minimum wage high enough, it will become cheaper to have automated kiosks replacing cashiers at McDonald's. What can a human cashier do that can't be automated?
Human interaction with costumers? I wont use an automated checkout unless they pay me my wages for the free labor I'm (not) performing.
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