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Old 08-20-2019, 10:13 AM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,522,211 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave New World View Post
The EU just keep reading out the same nonsense that they won't negotiate and that the backstop must stay, and that there is no credible alternative to the backstop.

Nigel Farage has actually stated that he thinks the EU bureaucrats are so out of touch that they don't care about the potential consequences of a no-deal situation and he actually doesn't think that they will negotiate further.

I suspect he is right, indeed they didn't care about Southern Europe during the Euro crisis and are largely cocooned from the real world with their vast salaries and pension, chauffeur driven cars, private jets and hugh expenses claims.

We will of course have to wait and see, however there is little Johnson or anyone else can do, as the backstop is not going to get through Parliament in a million years.

Furthermore a no deal means a future trade deal is far less likely and in turn this will have implications in terms of the UK's future relationship with the EU, as the EU can't expect Britain t be frozen out of trade and be an ethusiastic member of alliances defending the very same countries.
Two things.

First, the EU apparently is holding out hope that Jeremy Corbyn and the anti-Brexit resistance in Parliament will succeed in ousting Boris Johnson and installing a sympathetic government, that will then instigate a process of delay and probably a second referendum. Might as well have a second referendum on Scottish independence while they are at it. And also independence and unification of Ireland.

Sorry, I digress. The EU appear to be waiting to see what the Remainers can get done in September. By the end of September, these matters should be a good bit clearer. But it is likely to get a little bit ugly over at Westminster starting on September 3. The EU crowd are not going change their positions on anything until after they see how all of that plays out and Boris Johnson knows it.

Secondly, if the UK leaves the EU, you guys WILL get a trade deal with the EU. Period. It may well take a few years. And there will be a lot of blubbering and sniffling first. But it is not possible that there will be NO trade deal between the UK and the EU - ever again. That is just not going to happen.

 
Old 08-20-2019, 10:14 AM
 
Location: England
26,272 posts, read 8,431,258 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713 View Post
What the EU actually wants is for the UK to Remain in the EU. That is what this is about. Not anything to do with any "Backstop".
Yes. What Johnson is doing now, is the only way to make them realise we mean what we say. They think Johnson will turn out to be another Theresa May. They are wrong.

Johnson now is fighting for the survival of the Conservative Party. If he fails to take us out of the EU October 31st, they are sunk as a political force.

The EU have won every dispute with other members before this, and they're used to it. They have never faced a country who refuses to bend to their will.

The backstop is never going to get through Parliament. They refuse to compromise on this issue. So, we have no choice but to leave without a deal.

They hope somehow, someway, Parliament will find a way to stop Johnson, force a general election, and then a new Labour government will come cap in hand, asking to stay in the EU, or accept their terms to leave. Those terms will ensure we're never free of them, and able to make our own trade deals outside the EU.

We would be trapped in a limbo of the EU's making. We are not going to accept it, and whatever the price is, we will be free of their control once and for all.
 
Old 08-20-2019, 12:17 PM
 
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Reputation: 10096
Italian PM Giuseppe Conte has resigned. This effectively brings down the current Italian government. The President now has to choose between asking the 5 Stars (left leaning populists) to try to form another minority government, or to call elections, which is pretty close to an annual event in Italy going back to WWII.

This is all rather complicated, which is expected, since the Italians have not gotten their political boat rowing in the same direction for even a relatively short time for over 50 years now. But the net-net-net that is driving their current problems is that Italy has huge fiscal problems and huge problems with excessive immigration, and the EU will not allow the country to take measures to rectify either issue.

Quote:
Why Italy is heading for crisis once more

Over the last 14 months Salvini has skilfully used his position as interior minister to monopolise the media agenda, far exceeding his brief with a series of well-orchestrated clashes with pro-refugee NGOs, the EU and trade unions. Having won over a third of the vote in May’s European Parliament elections, on 8 August Salvini announced he would be withdrawing his party’s support for Conte and seeking fresh elections.

Salvini’s boisterous recent rallies in beach resorts across southern-central Italy were a good sign that election plans had been put in motion. In regional contests since the general election in March 2018, the Lega has extended its support beyond its traditional northern heartlands, and despite a scandal in July over alleged funding from Moscow, the party now polls close to 40 per cent nationally.

On Tuesday, Conte resigned, but recent manoeuvrings in the Italian parliament might thwart Salvini’s push for a vote this year. While Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia backed Salvini’s call for a vote of confidence in Conte, the Democratic Party (PD) sided with M5s to delay the date of the vote, buying time to negotiate a possible alternative government. Together, these parties are a potential parliamentary bulwark to the Lega, which holds only one in six seats in the legislature.

A pact between M5s and the PD carries all manner of dangers for Italy. Should a deal between them prove impossible, the country faces early elections and a likely huge mandate for Salvini. This would finalise the Lega’s capture of the conservative middle classes, while reducing Berlusconi’s old party, Forza Italia, to a mere rump entity after its quarter-century domination of the right. Victory would also propel the Lega’s march into the once hostile southern regions.

An outright Lega victory does not promise a huge policy shift – Salvini’s party has abandoned talk of leaving the eurozone, and has continued with its anti-migrant measures. But a Lega-only government would almost certainly reverse the welfare policies advanced by M5s, as well as introduce plans for a 15 per cent flat rate tax: lowering the tax burden for the wealthy while imposing as much as €60bn in spending cuts.
It is difficult to see how the Italians (or the Greeks either while we are on it) can effectively address their problems without at least leaving the Eurozone (Stop using the Euro as their currency) and either completely defy the EU's immigration mandates, or if that is not possible, leave the EU.,
 
Old 08-20-2019, 12:38 PM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,522,211 times
Reputation: 10096
A new YouGov poll reveals that the UK public opposes the idea of a "National unity government" by a margin of 44-37, with 19% not sure.

Quote:
New poll suggests public opposes government of national unity

Remainers’ hopes of blocking no-deal were dealt a blow today, as a new poll suggested that the public opposes toppling Boris Johnson and establishing a government of national unity. A survey by YouGov has found that 44 percent of people do not support replacing the Government with a cross-party administration tasked with delaying Brexit in order to hold a snap election.

The poll found that 76 percent of Leave voters were opposed to the idea, rising to 77 percent among voters who backed the Conservative Party at the last election. In contrast, just 37 percent of the public approved of the proposal, whilst 19% said they were undecided.
And Jeremy Corbyn is insisting on having the first go at replacing Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. So that is another impediment to this idea.
 
Old 08-20-2019, 01:39 PM
 
52,431 posts, read 26,636,151 times
Reputation: 21097
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdnirene View Post
Yes, I understand that. However, even if there were a hard border, responsibility for examining goods entering the EU is the sole responsibility of the EU. What they decide to do on their side of the Irish border as far as examination of incoming goods and application of tariffs is up to them - not the responsibility of the U.K.

Even with a hard border, the British would not be examining goods entering the EU from the U.K. So I still don’t understand why the EU would care what the British do about goods entering the U.K.

It’s similar to when you enter Canada from the U.S. You go through Canadian Customs only. When you return, you go through U.S. Customs only to re-enter the U.S. In other words, Customs is only about entry, not exit.
Your analogy with the US/Canada has nothing to do with this. You totally missed or ignored the most important part of my post. It's not about the goods crossing the border. Neither side really cares.

It's about WHO CONTROLS UK TRADE. i.e. Brussels or London. The current deal on the table requires the UK to 'cede trade negotiations to Brussels, so that the Irish border can remain open. It was put in there by Macron to make impossible for weak willed May to get the BRexit deal passed in Parliament.

Last edited by WaldoKitty; 08-20-2019 at 01:50 PM..
 
Old 08-20-2019, 03:10 PM
 
51,654 posts, read 25,828,130 times
Reputation: 37889
UK has rejected a hard border with the RoI.

UK has rejected the backstop, a transition time to figure this out.

Understandably, EU is opposed to UK's plan for criminals, contraband, and whatever else to move unimpeded from NI to the EU.

UK doesn't want to be part of the EU community. Nonetheless, it wants to continue to have free access to the EU community.

Why would they believe they are entitled to this?

Last edited by GotHereQuickAsICould; 08-20-2019 at 03:19 PM..
 
Old 08-20-2019, 03:27 PM
 
51,654 posts, read 25,828,130 times
Reputation: 37889
There have been a number of posts on this forum about how trading under WTO rules will be a good deal for the UK.

So ran across this on how WTO might impact oil/petrol imports and exports after a no-deal Brexit. Thought I'd pass this on for discussion

UK government has decided not to apply tariffs - taxes on trade - to imports of petrol in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

"The decision was made to lessen the inflationary impact on prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit."

"The current tariff on fuel imports from non-EU countries is 4.7%."

"Under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, a zero tariff rate must apply to petrol imports from all countries, opening up the UK to Russian fuel imports."

This, of course, is concerning to the Scottish and Welsh governments.

"At the same time, the EU has said it will apply a tariff, under WTO rules, of 4.7% to UK exports, making the trade with, for example, Ireland "uneconomical", according to insiders."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49405270
 
Old 08-20-2019, 03:47 PM
 
19,573 posts, read 8,522,211 times
Reputation: 10096
All the more reason not to be in the EU.
 
Old 08-20-2019, 04:13 PM
 
Location: Canada
7,680 posts, read 5,530,949 times
Reputation: 8817
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotHereQuickAsICould View Post
There have been a number of posts on this forum about how trading under WTO rules will be a good deal for the UK.

So ran across this on how WTO might impact oil/petrol imports and exports after a no-deal Brexit. Thought I'd pass this on for discussion

UK government has decided not to apply tariffs - taxes on trade - to imports of petrol in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

"The decision was made to lessen the inflationary impact on prices in the event of a no-deal Brexit."

"The current tariff on fuel imports from non-EU countries is 4.7%."

"Under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, a zero tariff rate must apply to petrol imports from all countries, opening up the UK to Russian fuel imports."

This, of course, is concerning to the Scottish and Welsh governments.

"At the same time, the EU has said it will apply a tariff, under WTO rules, of 4.7% to UK exports, making the trade with, for example, Ireland "uneconomical", according to insiders."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49405270
The issue of Russian oil imports is easily solved.

Quote:
European Union leaders agreed on Thursday to prolong until the end of January 2020 economic sanctions against Russia over the turmoil in Ukraine, a spokesman for the bloc said.

The EU first slapped sanctions on Russia after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014 and supported rebels fighting Kiev troops in the east of the country. That conflict, which killed 13,000 people, is still simmering.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/...il-2020-a66095

Brexit will allow the UK to set sanctions independently of the EU. Russian oil seems like a good choice.
 
Old 08-20-2019, 04:32 PM
 
51,654 posts, read 25,828,130 times
Reputation: 37889
You all do understand this is not only oil, this is everything imported and exported. Right?

Is the UK going to sanction everything?
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