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But there are other ideas such as carbon nanotube integration, optical computers, the IBM design using sheets of silicon surrounded by gate material, quantum computing, 3D integration / scaling, artificial synapses, etc.
Absolutely and that's the X factor. Somebody's spark of genius which will ignite a whole new field that we can't foresee and then off we go again. I only call it an X factor in the sense that I don't when or where that will happen but I am dead certain that it will. Just look at our history. If Turing were still alive to see where we've gone, right?
This is something far more fundamental than our diet and transportation. This has to do with core human abilities themselves - namely basic physical functions and even thinking itself, especially for the more routinized types of "high level" thinking. If we don't work (including thought-based work), how are we going to eat or find shelter?
If we have our basic needs, shelter and food, covered by UBI then what? Do you think we need the guidance of a 'boss' to get us off the couch and get something done? I am thinking people will peruse their own passions in a way they feel is most fulfilling and most productive. They don't have their CEO on a quarterly investment call promising an 8% return in the next FY. I don't think people would sit on the couch all day watching People's Court. Some would, but the productivity of the others would far outstrip them.
If not, then yes, we're doomed.
If we have our basic needs, shelter and food, covered by UBI then what? Do you think we need the guidance of a 'boss' to get us off the couch and get something done? I am thinking people will peruse their own passions in a way they feel is most fulfilling and most productive. They don't have their CEO on a quarterly investment call promising an 8% return in the next FY. I don't think people would sit on the couch all day watching People's Court. Some would, but the productivity of the others would far outstrip them.
If not, then yes, we're doomed.
I think making most of the humans beholden to government for every aspect of subsistence is a pathway to dystopia. I think the inconsequentiality of humans [in the fullness of time] would be devastating to our little ape brains. The idea that it would usher in some human renaissance of art, science, discovery, and peace, to me, is a fantasy.
I think making most of the humans beholden to government for every aspect of subsistence is a pathway to dystopia. I think the inconsequentiality of humans [in the fullness of time] would be devastating to our little ape brains. The idea that it would usher in some human renaissance of art, science, discovery, and peace, to me, is a fantasy.
Satisfaction, complete safety, lack of physical and mental challenges and comfort are NOT in our DNA. Four million years of evolution have created a human creature that responded to threat, discomfort and challenge with innovation, language, medicine and civilization itself. Bringing the drivers of that forward motion to a screeching halt in a flat-line state of safety, freedom from want and the elimination of most stresses from our lives will destroy us. Struggle is built in to the animal.
Satisfaction, complete safety, lack of physical and mental challenges and comfort are NOT in our DNA. Four million years of evolution have created a human creature that responded to threat, discomfort and challenge with innovation, language, medicine and civilization itself. Bringing the drivers of that forward motion to a screeching halt in a flat-line state of safety, freedom from want and the elimination of most stresses from our lives will destroy us. Struggle is built in to the animal.
I disagree because some of the hardest working, creative and productive people I've ever met were that way because they could be no other. Money, power, and the usual meant little to them. They had to do what they did because they were compelled and needed some outlet for their creativity and passion.
I do think that at first it will be a smaller part of the population, but that part would grow as we socialized the new norm of self drive and fulfillment.
BTW...Not to be paranoid but I can not for the life of my see the good in robots and especially AI. At the rate we're going it won't be long and the elite will no longer need the masses. What then? My answer ain't pretty for humankind.
You do realize that low wage households largely pay nil to no federal income taxes. Depending upon their size and or composition many even get money back (earned income and other credits).
On the local level that is another matter. But still you have to be pretty "high" on the low income scale to owe NYS and NYC taxes.
What does get everyone are FICA/payroll taxes; from which low income earners derive more benefit than high.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepenthe
I think making most of the humans beholden to government for every aspect of subsistence is a pathway to dystopia. I think the inconsequentiality of humans [in the fullness of time] would be devastating to our little ape brains. The idea that it would usher in some human renaissance of art, science, discovery, and peace, to me, is a fantasy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wee-Bey
Satisfaction, complete safety, lack of physical and mental challenges and comfort are NOT in our DNA. Four million years of evolution have created a human creature that responded to threat, discomfort and challenge with innovation, language, medicine and civilization itself. Bringing the drivers of that forward motion to a screeching halt in a flat-line state of safety, freedom from want and the elimination of most stresses from our lives will destroy us. Struggle is built in to the animal.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CCbaxter
I disagree because some of the hardest working, creative and productive people I've ever met were that way because they could be no other. Money, power, and the usual meant little to them. They had to do what they did because they were compelled and needed some outlet for their creativity and passion.
I do think that at first it will be a smaller part of the population, but that part would grow as we socialized the new norm of self drive and fulfillment.
I see a bit of all the above I agree with. I'll keep it short.
Nepenthe: Agreed 100% with peace being a fantasy, and to a lesser extent science and discovery (especially if perceptive creativity useful for STEM fields proves programmable in principle). The artistic endeavors I think will continue. An expression is an expression, no matter if from human or AI. It's unique to the individual (notwithstanding derivative forms or art).
Wee-Bay: Ironically, struggle itself may hasten the downfall of our species in any case. Status seeking and/or "downing" people of low status are themselves struggles (the former is gaining something, usually at someone else's expense; the latter is compelling struggle in self-defense, often causing long-standing distrust of others). This is going to continue with or without freedom from want and danger.
CCbaxter: True, most people would find something to do - whether creative or destructive. Look no further than real world billionaire wifes of leisure (not Real Housewives (TM) type). Some of them truly do societally redeeming tasks, others do little beyond gossip, play mind games, promote their own image/persona, and try to climb the social ladder of their own clique even though it's not actually necessary for their physical or psychological well-being. Which ties into Wee-Bay's point, and combining my comments about both your points leads to my conclusion you just read.
Satisfaction, complete safety, lack of physical and mental challenges and comfort are NOT in our DNA. Four million years of evolution have created a human creature that responded to threat, discomfort and challenge with innovation, language, medicine and civilization itself. Bringing the drivers of that forward motion to a screeching halt in a flat-line state of safety, freedom from want and the elimination of most stresses from our lives will destroy us. Struggle is built in to the animal.
Satisfaction, complete safety, lack of physical and mental challenges and comfort are NOT in our DNA. Four million years of evolution have created a human creature that responded to threat, discomfort and challenge with innovation, language, medicine and civilization itself. Bringing the drivers of that forward motion to a screeching halt in a flat-line state of safety, freedom from want and the elimination of most stresses from our lives will destroy us. Struggle is built in to the animal.
I think you're underestimating how much people don't like boredom. Why do you think we put children in time out. There's no real lesson there. If you steal a cookie from the cookie jar, righting the wrong would involve replacing the cookie, not losing your gameboy (or iPad since it's not 1995 anymore). Suddenly, a child without his computer or tv privileges is bored, and they either find a way to fill their time productively (reading a book, for example) or suffer through the boredom with the knowledge that stealing a cookie will force them to endure said boredom again.
The adult version of that same thing is called prison, by the way.
Presumably, UBI would only cover the most necessary of things. That's very little, actually. An example, my two favorite beverages, coffee and beer, would almost certainly not be considered basic needs. I'd then have to do something extra in order to have those simple pleasures.
The idea that there would be people who could suffer through such boredom for very long is absurd to me. People would find themselves being productive. And actually productive. Most studies done on productivity find that the many overworked and extremely stressed Americans would actually be more productive if they worked fewer hours and had more generous break time. With that in mind, surely a UBI system would still be an improvement in productivity to what we have now.
If we have our basic needs, shelter and food, covered by UBI then what? Do you think we need the guidance of a 'boss' to get us off the couch and get something done? I am thinking people will peruse their own passions in a way they feel is most fulfilling and most productive. They don't have their CEO on a quarterly investment call promising an 8% return in the next FY. I don't think people would sit on the couch all day watching People's Court. Some would, but the productivity of the others would far outstrip them.
If not, then yes, we're doomed.
You are idealizing human beings. A huge portion of humanity is already unproductive and lazy. Removing the need for being employed would make them worse. There are large swaths of cities where unemployment is widespread and these areas aren't bustling with innovation. These areas tend to be dilapidated and unkempt. There are all these people who aren't even working now and they have plenty of free time to get things done, yet they don't. These areas are filled with drugs, crime, and social dysfunction. Only in a fantasy world would basic income male these people more productive.
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