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Causation and correlation - the big question of all sciences...
Be that as it may, there is no doubt that the economy is floundering. Housing starts, housing prices, new mortgages, stock market, yield curve, etc.
No matter what opinions we hold, the numbers tell the take and 2018 look to be a lost year for most diversified investors. Being as this is the first full year that Trump policies (or lack of, in this case) and chaos were evident, that's saying something. And, yes, momentum is a real thing which accounts for much of the initial gains when Trump took office.....since the market had went up 14% (or more, depending on index) the year before.
None of this is any different than former Trump Trains. I was there in Atlantic City when it was touted over and over again - YUGE.
Trump and Kudlow steering the economy is akin to the Fake Doctors in S. Florida using Fix-a-Flat to enhance buttocks (yes, they did).....people who simply do not have the capability to do the job at hand.
I don't think it would matter who was president. Trump or Clinton, the bull market was long in the tooth for a long while and it was bound to go down again. It always goes through these cycles.
I think no matter what, the bear is coming. No bull mark15,et lasts forever.
It's impossible to read all the posts in this thread, but I carefully explained earlier how the "bull market" is BS, being as total returns since 2000 are ridiculously low. But I will give you a shortie.....
2000 - Dow 10,700
2018 - Dow 24,500
10,700 dollars in 2000 is worth 15,700 in todays dollars.
At 4.75% compounded yearly from the 10.7 k, the DOW would be 24,700 today.....or about exactly where we are.
So, in effect, you are saying we really had a RUN to make an average of less than 1/2 the historical numbers and we need to pull back from there?
That's fantastic. If we figured an average 10% for those years...which is not historically out of line, we'd have DOW 60,000. If it were 8% (fairly accurate for 100 years), we'd have 43,000.
Please show me where I am wrong. I want my money back.
The market went up well over these amounts each year (avg) during the Obama term - something like 12% average.
But I can't imagine how two decades of 5% returns is considered a raging BULL.
It's impossible to read all the posts in this thread, but I carefully explained earlier how the "bull market" is BS, being as total returns since 2000 are ridiculously low. But I will give you a shortie.....
2000 - Dow 10,700
2018 - Dow 24,500
10,700 dollars in 2000 is worth 15,700 in todays dollars.
At 4.75% compounded yearly from the 10.7 k, the DOW would be 24,700 today.....or about exactly where we are.
So, in effect, you are saying we really had a RUN to make an average of less than 1/2 the historical numbers and we need to pull back from there?
That's fantastic. If we figured an average 10% for those years...which is not historically out of line, we'd have DOW 60,000. If it were 8% (fairly accurate for 100 years), we'd have 43,000.
Please show me where I am wrong. I want my money back.
The market went up well over these amounts each year (avg) during the Obama term - something like 12% average.
But I can't imagine how two decades of 5% returns is considered a raging BULL.
I'm glad you reposted this, because you are 100% incorrect with the basis of your argument, and the below quote explains exactly why.
Your basis of a 10% average return is nowhere near the actual real return for the DJIA. On average the ENTIRE MARKET has close to a 7% return, and historically the DJIA has much lower than 10% return.
Quote:
On May 25, 2012, the Dow closed at 12,454.83, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 5.05 percent over 116 years. However, the stocks in the index have changed over the years. In fact, of the 12 initial companies, only General Electric is still a Dow stock. The performance data over certain periods are more informative. For example, the historical data suggest that the Dow had a compounded annual growth rate of 7.55 percent from a close of 2,002.85 on Jan. 8, 1987 to a closing value of 12,359.92 on Jan. 6, 2012, just 25 years later. The data also suggest that the compounded annual return was about 4.3 percent over the 91 years before 1987.
So yeah, I've shown you that you are pretty much 100% wrong about your entire hypothesis here. You're welcome.
Last edited by t206; 12-10-2018 at 08:36 PM..
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