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Old 01-02-2019, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Florida
76,971 posts, read 47,629,107 times
Reputation: 14806

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Welcome 2019.

Looks like the slide continues......

Thanks Trump.

 
Old 01-02-2019, 08:31 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,977,382 times
Reputation: 4332
Welcome to 2019.

Looks like a ~0.5% drop for 1/3 of a day of trading is still reason for hand wringing for some folks.

I fully expect much worse at some point this year, so those who cant stomach a day of sub 1% losses really need to find their big boy pants for if/when it gets worse.
 
Old 01-02-2019, 08:41 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,674,856 times
Reputation: 14050
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Welcome to 2019.

Looks like a ~0.5% drop for 1/3 of a day of trading is still reason for hand wringing for some folks.

I fully expect much worse at some point this year, so those who cant stomach a day of sub 1% losses really need to find their big boy pants for if/when it gets worse.
How about a year of 6-12% losses plus the 10-12% "should have made" losses.

On a 2 million dollar retirement portfolio, that comes to about 300-400K short.

My guess is that many investors have a difficult time with losing 400K in a year at the time when they are 100% relying on it for their income.

Maybe the new "answer" is that no one without 10 million or more should invest in the markets? And even then not more than 20% of their equity.....???

I'd say this is somewhat the situation as long as the Orange One does not not shut up.
 
Old 01-02-2019, 08:49 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,977,382 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
How about a year of 6-12% losses plus the 10-12% "should have made" losses.

On a 2 million dollar retirement portfolio, that comes to about 300-400K short.

My guess is that many investors have a difficult time with losing 400K in a year at the time when they are 100% relying on it for their income.

Maybe the new "answer" is that no one without 10 million or more should invest in the markets? And even then not more than 20% of their equity.....???

I'd say this is somewhat the situation as long as the Orange One does not not shut up.
Well since my comment was obviously about TODAY, and not a year, that should answer the first part of your question. Additionally there is no "should have made" loss, thats just stupid and assumes markets are on a permanent upward trajectory, there is risk and there will be loss, regardless of POTUS.

And to address your item about a $400K loss for those 100% relying on the market for their income, anyone doing that is quite frankly an idiot. To rely on the market for 100% of your income is like relying on Roulette for 100% of your income. Anyone in that situation and with that much invested should be relying on a big chunk of fixed income options for their income. No reason to take that much risk in the market when fixed income is nearing 3%+

Everyone should be invested in the market, as long as they understand that there is no such thing as a guaranteed positive return in a short time period. Using a 3-5 year window for if/when you need the money, markets should remain a great opportunity for anyone, regardless of if they have $50 a month to invest, or $10M to invest.
 
Old 01-02-2019, 09:25 AM
 
13,688 posts, read 9,009,247 times
Reputation: 10407
Yeah! Market just moved into positive territory.



Hope it lasts. I no longer have a dog in this fight, but I am concerned for those that are nearing retirement and will rely on their 401k.
 
Old 01-02-2019, 11:51 AM
 
29,551 posts, read 9,720,681 times
Reputation: 3472
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Well since my comment was obviously about TODAY, and not a year, that should answer the first part of your question. Additionally there is no "should have made" loss, thats just stupid and assumes markets are on a permanent upward trajectory, there is risk and there will be loss, regardless of POTUS.

And to address your item about a $400K loss for those 100% relying on the market for their income, anyone doing that is quite frankly an idiot. To rely on the market for 100% of your income is like relying on Roulette for 100% of your income. Anyone in that situation and with that much invested should be relying on a big chunk of fixed income options for their income. No reason to take that much risk in the market when fixed income is nearing 3%+

Everyone should be invested in the market, as long as they understand that there is no such thing as a guaranteed positive return in a short time period. Using a 3-5 year window for if/when you need the money, markets should remain a great opportunity for anyone, regardless of if they have $50 a month to invest, or $10M to invest.
This thread is still going? As far as the title is concerned anyway, some myths will simply not go die...

I'm not sure about this $400K loss, but I think there are some assumptions being made here, or at least a few questions that come to my mind. A $400K loss suggests a rather large investment to start with. Say it's a 401K and a 10% percent loss, that's a $4 million 401K! Even if all that investment is entirely "relying on the market," I'm not sure there should be any retirement concerns if that investment remains in the 401K going forward, over the long term. Not for most Americans I know anyway...

I am retired, and of course my 401K went down just like everyone else, but nothing I haven't seen before and nothing that is causing me to pull out of the market just like I didn't pull out during the last serious downturn post Great Recession. Fortunately there is still enough there to count on going forward, and things should steady out over the long haul, especially after Trump is gone. That's only a short time from now in the context of the stock market history. Also of course, diversification is important; bonds, other investments, just in case, but if the stock market were really to take a bath ala the Great Recession, no one is going to be okay other than the uber rich.

My two bits for what they are worth anyway...
 
Old 01-02-2019, 12:34 PM
 
Location: Florida
76,971 posts, read 47,629,107 times
Reputation: 14806
As if December wasn't bad enough, people are now saying 1% per day it nothing to worry about.

What's 1% per day for 30 days....? Yep, a disaster.
 
Old 01-02-2019, 12:38 PM
 
Location: The 719
18,015 posts, read 27,463,514 times
Reputation: 17342
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
Welcome 2019.

Looks like the slide continues......


Thanks Trump.


Waa! NOT my swock mwarket Waa!

What? It's back up fwom twee hwundwed dwown?

Not My Pwesident! Waa!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
Sober up!
Ah you really ripped my covers there.

I'm only sober 14 years and 363 days.

Be back Friday when I got XV.

Last edited by McGowdog; 01-02-2019 at 01:20 PM..
 
Old 01-02-2019, 12:49 PM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,977,382 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber View Post
As if December wasn't bad enough, people are now saying 1% per day it nothing to worry about.

What's 1% per day for 30 days....? Yep, a disaster.
Funny, nobody said 1% per day for 30 days, so you are just making up a counter argument to a point that nobody made, go figure. Meanwhile, since todays panic and hand-wringing about the markets being down less than 1% they are back in the green. Do you see the bigger point here? Coming here to cry about 1% point changes in either direction at 10AM when the market has been open for 30 minutes is a bit ridiculous. There is a reason traders refer to the 9:30 - 10:30AM hours as amateur hour.
 
Old 01-02-2019, 01:01 PM
 
Location: In the outlet by the lightswitch
2,306 posts, read 1,703,768 times
Reputation: 4261
On the bright side, if you are a dollar cost averager (I am just guessing most people who have a 401k are since it's a lot easier to invest a little each paycheck than a lump sum), at least you are buying stock at a lower price now (so you have more to gain later). I've been DCA for more than 25 years now and even with downs, it's resulted in a slow increase over time. So there is a bright side to a slide in the market as there is an upswing. Not a political post per say, just trying to give a little hope to the ones in this thread who seem stressed.
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