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China trade deal should produce one more up move. Then markets start to slide down quickly. Then Fed announces "surprise" rate cut. One more mini bounce due to the rate cut. Then all financial hell breaks out before the election.
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For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural progression of a downturn in long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, and finally to coincident indicators of which jobs along with industrial production are the Queen and King, respectively.
Further, I have pointed out that, even when the spread between short and long term bonds simply gets tight, even if there is no outright inversion, employment growth almost always falters. And goods-producing employment - including manufacturing and construction jobs - has *always* faltered in the past 60 years.
Finally, since temporary jobs are a well-known leading indicator for jobs as a whole, I have been expecting them to slow down if not turn down.
March’s jobs report delivered all of this in spades.
But, as has been repeatedly pointed out many time in this thread (including by the OP), the title of the thread is, "President Trump is absolutely the greatest on the economy. Dow breaks 25,000."
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