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I read somewhere legit that, I'm sorry I didn't screenshot the source.
Go win a spelling bee.
The fact that you heard or read something that is nowhere near the actual truth and no other site even comes close to backing it up seems like quite a stretch, and now you are taking it out on me because you can't back it up anywhere.
I think one has to start with the fact that incumbency is a vast positive for any candidate. Then we have to measure one against many, a tough act. Sure - the odds of any single Dem. candidate making it have to be low.
If I was going to make this bet (not sure I can from afar), I'd simply go on the "not re-elected" side of the Trump odds....but not specify any Dem candidate.
There are even pretty good odds against Trump even being the nominee - so ALL that has to be figured into bets. I think they are 20% that he won't be...of course many would say this if foolish and, if so, they should put their money into it.
Lemme preface by saying that I'm a semi-serious horse player, so, I understand odds and betting.
Vegas odds on 2020 election today are as meaningless as Vegas odds on the upcoming Super Bowl. The polls and I assume the Vegas odds on Dem candidate change like the weather - it's a pure guess which Dem runs.
Polls don't matter a lot 12 months out seems to me - 100 things will change in the coming months. What's kinda relevant is the change in the polls over time. Trump's losing ground, and his unfavorable ratings are getting worse.
It's 99% obvious that Trump will be impeached. He probably won't be Removed by the Repubs in Senate The "free' advertising that the Dems will get in the Trial is Priceless. I can see the Dem ads now: "here's Trump committing campaign finance laws," "Here's Trump Quid Pro Quo'ing," "Here's Trump's Emolument issues," "etc., etc., etc." This'll be great TV!
Based on this, as a betting man, I'll bet on the Dem at low odds: I'll bet $2 and I would get my $2 back plus $1. This is 1-2 odds for non-bettors.
I was the OP 2-3 weeks ago on a thread where I said that "I think that Romney coming out strong against Trump means that Romney is preparing to run for President if Trump is Removed or Resigns in the next months." I have hopes that Trump will be Removed despite his hard-core Repub Senate backers. Conspicuous by its absence is Moscow Mitch being 99% silent on the Inquiry. If Mitch thinks that Trump will lose in 2020 he'll flip on Trump in a New York heartbeat. Mitch is all about winning and he doesn't want a sure loser (Trump) running which'll cost House and Senate seats. So, if polls continue to drop for Trump the odds of Trump even running go down. This ain't 1-2 but I put it at 2 to 1, meaning I'll bet $2 and get back my $2 plus $4.
A smaller economy coming out of a downturn in the business cycle is much different than a larger economy later in a business cycle people cmon. Also, Dow near record territory again, S&P well over record highs. Where are all the people claiming the market was crashing a month ago? We’re well in to the volatile period.
Lemme preface by saying that I'm a semi-serious horse player, so, I understand odds and betting.
Vegas odds on 2020 election today are as meaningless as Vegas odds on the upcoming Super Bowl. The polls and I assume the Vegas odds on Dem candidate change like the weather - it's a pure guess which Dem runs.
Polls don't matter a lot 12 months out seems to me - 100 things will change in the coming months. What's kinda relevant is the change in the polls over time. Trump's losing ground, and his unfavorable ratings are getting worse.
It's 99% obvious that Trump will be impeached. He probably won't be Removed by the Repubs in Senate The "free' advertising that the Dems will get in the Trial is Priceless. I can see the Dem ads now: "here's Trump committing campaign finance laws," "Here's Trump Quid Pro Quo'ing," "Here's Trump's Emolument issues," "etc., etc., etc." This'll be great TV!
Based on this, as a betting man, I'll bet on the Dem at low odds: I'll bet $2 and I would get my $2 back plus $1. This is 1-2 odds for non-bettors.
I was the OP 2-3 weeks ago on a thread where I said that "I think that Romney coming out strong against Trump means that Romney is preparing to run for President if Trump is Removed or Resigns in the next months." I have hopes that Trump will be Removed despite his hard-core Repub Senate backers. Conspicuous by its absence is Moscow Mitch being 99% silent on the Inquiry. If Mitch thinks that Trump will lose in 2020 he'll flip on Trump in a New York heartbeat. Mitch is all about winning and he doesn't want a sure loser (Trump) running which'll cost House and Senate seats. So, if polls continue to drop for Trump the odds of Trump even running go down. This ain't 1-2 but I put it at 2 to 1, meaning I'll bet $2 and get back my $2 plus $4.
my $.02
If this were true, there is absolutely positively no chance that the odds makers would have him far and away the leading candidate to win, even though that doesnt mean he is automatically removed from office. There is just zero logic in that.
They call it 'speaking from both sides of your mouth'.
That's not his mouth.....
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They call it 'speaking from both sides of your mouth'.
I have two advantages!
1- I'm from NY and I know a con-man when I see one
2- I'm a career salesman. There's a 'saying' among us salesmen: "you can't BS a salesman - we know when someone is BSing"
It's comic relief for me to hear Trump BSing non-stop
What's even funnier is listening to Trump supporters:
1- Trump didn't say that
2- Trump said it but he didn't mean it
3- Trump is misunderstood
4 - you took it outta context
5- so what if he said it
6- Crooked Hillary
7- "Fake news"
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