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Trump's pardon isn't worth that much to Manafort. Before the ink is dry the state charges will start coming.
If Manafort talks, and he is the one who can incriminate Donnie, he will go to jail for a few months and walk out looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life to see if there's a Russian there with nerve gas or polonium tea for him. If he doesn't talk, he will go to jail for the rest of his life. If the case is dismissed he is free of both scenarios.
Gutsy choice to try to get the courts to side with him that Mueller didn't have authority to investigate him, but absoultely idiotic. Manafort is toast no matter how this plays out.
Yet, read my reply, above. It does not work that way.
Of course, what Mr. Trump thinks would happen if he pardoned Manafort, is a horse of a different color.
I saw your post. You presume he would pardon him now, I guess, and that Manafort gets a sweet deal for singing. Manafort probably is looking at several years even in a plea deal with all the crimes he has committed. I see it coming later when Trump is ready to leave office. That might not be all that far down the road. So Manafort spends anywhere from a few months to a couple years in a federal white collar camp and then gets out. That's probably better than a plea deal and he doesn't have to worry about Putin or Trump taking him out either which would certainly be a possibility if he snitches. Silence is golden - and rewarded - among these mobsters like Trump.
I saw your post. You presume he would pardon him now, I guess, and that Manafort gets a sweet deal for singing. Manafort probably is looking at several years even in a plea deal with all the crimes he has committed. I see it coming later when Trump is ready to leave office. That might not be all that far down the road. So Manafort spends anywhere from a few months to a couple years in a federal white collar camp and then gets out. That's probably better than a plea deal and he doesn't have to worry about Putin or Trump taking him out either which would certainly be a possibility if he snitches. Silence is golden - and rewarded - among these mobsters like Trump.
I think you are correct that I was presuming that the pardon would be before Mr. Manafort goes to trial (two trials, actually, in two different courts).
It is an interesting scenario you give: Mr. Manafort fights the tax invasion and money laundering charges in court (which have nothing to do with the Russian investigation, hence his motion to have all charges dismissed). If convicted, he goes to prison. Mr. Trump, upon leaving office, pardons Mr. Manafort and commutes his sentence, but only if Mr. Manafort keeps his mouth shut concerning Mr. Trump and his activities (if any).
I must think on this. For instance, Mr. Manafort does not desire (presumably) to testify against Mr. Trump.
If called before a grand jury (or Congress), Mr. Manafort may, of course, plea the Fifth Amendment against self-incrimination.
Of course, a person may not plea the Fifth to not incriminate other people. That was an issue addressed several times during Watergate. You had several of Nixon's people pleading the Fifth, but only as to themselves.
Mr. Manafort could, perhaps, take the position that by implicating Mr. Trump he also implicates himself (also per Watergate). That becomes a thorny issue in conspiracy cases. If the person testifies that others conspired with him in some matter, he is, in theory implicating himself.
Or, Mr. Manafort may chose to not testify at all, be found in contempt of court (or Congress), and go to jail until such time as he desire to 'purge himself of contempt', hoping, in the meantime, that Mr. Trump will issue a Presidential Pardon. His time in jail (for contempt) may not be that long.
Hmm. Of course, Mr. Manafort, if his motions to dismiss are denied (which I expect), and as his two trial dates (July 10th, September 17) approach, he may decide to seek his own deal with Mueller to get out of trouble.
It is not cut and dried by any means, what the future holds. As you say, Mr. Trump, even if resigning his office for whatever reason, could begin to issue pardons left and right, and then get Mr. Pence to agree to pardon him.
As I have said before in other threads, what benefit would flow to Mr. Trump by such a pardon?
Trump doesn't think that far ahead.
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