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If Trump's going to pardon someone, it's going to be family. Don Jr, Kushner, Ivanka. If any of them are indicted, he'll likely issue the pardon immediately after they are indicted. Anyone else that's not family will be treated as an outcast and likely won't get a pardon.
As I have said before in other threads, what benefit would flow to Mr. Trump by such a pardon?
You're right, the negatives far outweigh any positives for Trump to possibly pardon Manafort. I honestly can't even think of a positive for Trump pardoning him. POTUS will probably let him burn.
Paul Manafort's trail is due to start in September, just a few months before mid-terms. If POTUS Trump pardoned Manafort in September, it would only ignite the left and strengthen the "blue wave" expected to crash upon DC this November. Every democrat running for office would plaster Trump's pardoning of Manafort on their commercials and motivate otherwise non-midterm voters to put on some shoes and go to the booths.
If I'm a Trump adviser, I would tell POTUS to let Manafort go down.
Issuing a pardon is the same as admitting that a crime was committed. Why would Trump do this? Like others, I don't see the upside for Trump here. And if there isn't an upside for him, I doubt he'd do it.
I shall simply paste here an explanation I previously made using Mr. Kushner as an example; however, it will also fit Mr. Flynn, Manafort, et al:
Allow me to, again, address the "Trump Pardons Jared, etc" theory.
Why? Because I see Conservatives on the Right urging it, and I see Liberals on the Left fearing it.
If Mr. Trump is being properly advised, he would have been told this:
1. A Presidential pardon will prevent the person being pardoned from being tried for crimes and/or going to prison. Most famous example: Ford's pardon of Nixon.
2. A person 'pre-pardon' may invoke, if subpoenaed to testify, his or her Fifth Amendment right, on the grounds that said person's testimony may incriminate them. In our system of law, a person may not be compelled to testify against themselves if by doing so they risk their freedom.
3. Once a person has received a Presidential pardon, said person no longer may invoke said Fifth Amendment, because that person is no longer in jeopardy of going to prison.
Let me use Mr. Kushner as an example.
Mr. Kushner, if subpoenaed to testify, has the right to show up and claim the Fifth Amendment (he does not have the right to refuse to appear).
If Mr. Trump pardons Mr. Kushner, then Mr. Kushner, no longer having the jeopardy of going to prison, must testify. He no longer has Fifth Amendment protection.
What happens if Mr. Kushner nevertheless refuses to testify?
The Court or Congressional committee (or what have you) may then hold Mr. Kushner in 'contempt of court' (or Congress). If Mr. Kushner continues to refuse to testify, he will then be jailed, until such time as he agrees to testify. He may be held for an indefinite period of time. The old saying is that a person jailed for contempt hold the keys to the cell in his pocket: meaning, testify, and you are let out.
If Mr. Kushner, thus compelled to testify, is discovered to have lied, then he may be charged with perjury (a President pardon only covers crimes committed, or that may have been committed, prior to the date of the pardon. It does not cover future crimes, such as perjury). If found guilty of perjury, off to prison for a set period of time.
Hence, Mr. Trump will only start to 'pardon' people if he is an idiot and refuses to follow good, sound legal advise. It is markedly better for those like Mr. Kushner to invoke the Fifth Amendment. People may howl, but howling does not cause one to go to prison, or be impeached.
I realize that Mr. Trump pardoned Sheriff Joe of Phoenix. However, no one cares about what he may have to say on virtually any subject.
To think that Trump is following, let alone getting, sound legal advice is a stretch.
In any case, the advice Trump will follow is Putin's.
It's in his best interest to do so.
True enough.
Now, I have no doubt that Mr. Manafort's attorney is telling Mr. Trump that it would be in his best interest to pardon Mr. Manafort.
Attorney to Mr. Trump: "Pardon Manafort, and the Russian investigation does away!"
Mr. Trump says to himself: "Yes, I do want the Russian investigation to go away".
Mr. Trump then pardons Mr. Manafort.
Mr. Manafort, whom strikes me as being very, very loyal to himself, may then happily testify concerning what he knows, free of any chance of imprisonment, implicating Mr. Trump thoroughly, and resulting in impeachment proceedings.
Thereafter, Mr. Manafort's attorney to an angry Mr. Trump: "Oops! I did not see that coming! Sorry!"
In between will be a trip to Mar-a-Lago where a trusted staff person working on a visa will relay a message to the Russian oligarch in a yacht that just happens to anchored off shore.
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