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Finn_Jarber, annual trade deficits indicate their nation used and or consumed more products than they produced. They're always net detrimental to their nation's GDP and drag upon their nation's numbers of jobs. USA within the past half-century has experienced chronic annual trade deficits of goods.
I'm among the proponents of USA adopting the improved trade policy described in Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article. The unilateral policy would significantly reduce, (if not entirely eliminate) USA’s annual trade deficits of goods in a manner that increases our GDP and numbers of jobs more than otherwise.
Other than favoring USA products, the policy does not discriminate among foreign nations, or among any industries, or enterprises, or any other entities.
The substantially market-driven policy cannot prevent importation of an item if an effective USA demand exists for that item.
The policies entire net costs are passed on to USA purchasers of imported goods. Beyond reflecting direct federal expenditures due to the policy, any other of the policy’s additions to import prices due to markets’ behaviors, serve as indirect but effective price subsidies for USA’s exported goods.
Refer to Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article.
What could be worse than a $13 trillion cumulative trade deficit with the rest of the world? I'm old enough to remember when everything was made in the USA. How did we ever survive that period?
If you are *that* old then, one likely answer to your query is post WWII United States was the last man standing so to speak.
Nearly all of the European economies were in shambles. What developed Asian nations there were (Japan for a start) weren't in a much better position, and nearly all of Latin America was still Third World and not worth bothering about.
All this began to change by the 1970's as European nations began to dig themselves out of the wreckage of WWII. Germany (west) in particular brushed itself off and was fast once again becoming the dominate economy of Europe.
If you are *that* old then, one likely answer to your query is post WWII United States was the last man standing so to speak.
Nearly all of the European economies were in shambles. What developed Asian nations there were (Japan for a start) weren't in a much better position, and nearly all of Latin America was still Third World and not worth bothering about.
All this began to change by the 1970's as European nations began to dig themselves out of the wreckage of WWII. Germany (west) in particular brushed itself off and was fast once again becoming the dominate economy of Europe.
I think it started right after the war with the Marshall plan which rewarded japan and Germany for trying to take over the world with new steel mills.
The US companies kept ours which were around 100 years old by then. Once export bans were lifted and they could sell in the US our own companies had some troubles.
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Originally Posted by BugsyPal
If you are *that* old then, one likely answer to your query is post WWII United States was the last man standing so to speak.
Nearly all of the European economies were in shambles. What developed Asian nations there were (Japan for a start) weren't in a much better position, and nearly all of Latin America was still Third World and not worth bothering about.
All this began to change by the 1970's as European nations began to dig themselves out of the wreckage of WWII. Germany (west) in particular brushed itself off and was fast once again becoming the dominate economy of Europe.
What the US and other nations have done is "move up the value chain" which means using business processes and resources to produce highly profitable products also known as higher-margin products.
Low value products from China are not what the US needs to expand in, indeed the Chinese and even the Germans want to move up the value chain themselves and there are limitations in terms of maufacturing as opposed to services which are often further up the value chain.
The Germans do have the advantage of producing high end manufactured goods, however the numbers of people employed in manufacturing is declining as it becomes increasingly automated.
Coal mining and steel are not high value goods in terms of the value chain, it's cars, aircraft and ther large goods, the hi-tech sector and internet companies and service industries that are at the high value end of any economy.
In terms of the US Deficit, if you include services it looks much better, and it shuld be noted that the US trade deficit accounts for less than 3% of US GDP.
As for Germany;
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBC
Imagine a country whose inhabitants work fewer hours than almost any others, whose workforce is not particularly productive and whose children spend less time at school than most of its neighbours.
Hardly a recipe for economic success, you might think. But the country described above is none other than Germany.
Brave New World,you're trying to spin a better story of what's essentially a bad situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Supposn
Finn_Jarber, annual trade deficits indicate their nation used and or consumed more products than they produced. They're always net detrimental to their nation's GDP and drag upon their nation's numbers of jobs. USA within the past half-century has experienced chronic annual trade deficits of goods. ...Refer to Wikipedia's “Import Certificates” article.
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Brave New World,you're trying to spin a better story of what's essentially a bad situation.
It's not worth starting a trade war over, indeed the US will have millions of unfilled jobs within the next decade and the US Economy is not that bad despite Trump.
It's not worth starting a trade war over, indeed the US will have millions of unfilled jobs within the next decade and the US Economy is not that bad despite Trump. ...
Brave New World, even a broken clock is correct twice in a day; but our president Trump doesn't do that well. I'm a proponent of Import Certificates; It's superior to pure free trade or tariff policies.
It's contradictory to levy tariffs on steel, but not on steel products. Who is steel produced by USA's higher- priced labor going to be sold to if foreign lower-wage nations' imports continue to drive USA fabricators of steel products out of business? Similarly, this is true of aluminum.
What's the point of selecting nation's subject to the tariff? If we reduce Chinese imports, we'll just continue importing from some other low-wage nation.
I don't know if the numbers of our unfilled jobs are in the millions, but our inability to fill them are due to the failures of our nation's education and training systems. The states have the jurisdiction and the power to improve them. They're failing to do so.
The extent USA's education and training systems' improvements, would be reflected by to lesser improvement of our economic and social well-being.
All direct government expenditures due to an Import Certificate policy are passed on to the nation's purchasers of imported products. The policy doesn't divert any resources from education and training programs.
What the US and other nations have done is "move up the value chain" which means using business processes and resources to produce highly profitable products also known as higher-margin products.
Low value products from China are not what the US needs to expand in, indeed the Chinese and even the Germans want to move up the value chain themselves and there are limitations in terms of maufacturing as opposed to services which are often further up the value chain.
The Germans do have the advantage of producing high end manufactured goods, however the numbers of people employed in manufacturing is declining as it becomes increasingly automated.
Coal mining and steel are not high value goods in terms of the value chain, it's cars, aircraft and ther large goods, the hi-tech sector and internet companies and service industries that are at the high value end of any economy.
In terms of the US Deficit, if you include services it looks much better, and it shuld be noted that the US trade deficit accounts for less than 3% of US GDP.
That is the globalist playbook in a nutshell. The US is to be transformed into an "advanced service" economy, where intellectual capital is the main resource and what remains of basic manufacturing is to be shut down.
But the problem is that the average US citizen does not have a genius IQ and the temperament to be a semiconductor physicist, protein chemist, mechanical engineer, personal injury lawyer, etc.
Throwing more money at the educational establishment (the "duopoly's" solution) will not solve the problem.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Supposn
Brave New World, even a broken clock is correct twice in a day; but our president Trump doesn't do that well. I'm a proponent of Import Certificates; It's superior to pure free trade or tariff policies.
It's contradictory to levy tariffs on steel, but not on steel products. Who is steel produced by USA's higher- priced labor going to be sold to if foreign lower-wage nations' imports continue to drive USA fabricators of steel products out of business? Similarly, this is true of aluminum.
What's the point of selecting nation's subject to the tariff? If we reduce Chinese imports, we'll just continue importing from some other low-wage nation.
I don't know if the numbers of our unfilled jobs are in the millions, but our inability to fill them are due to the failures of our nation's education and training systems. The states have the jurisdiction and the power to improve them. They're failing to do so.
The extent USA's education and training systems' improvements, would be reflected by to lesser improvement of our economic and social well-being.
All direct government expenditures due to an Import Certificate policy are passed on to the nation's purchasers of imported products. The policy doesn't divert any resources from education and training programs.
The trouble with import certificates is that other countries would simply introduce them in relation to US Goods, and by limiting cheap imports you then the price of certain goods would rise hitting the consumer and causing a rise in inflation.
As for employment, a lot of jobs are usually unfilled because they are low paid, and it is unlkely that you would find American workers willing to work as cheaply in relation to the manufacturer of low grade goods.
Import Cerificates are on essense just protectionism by another name, and would inevitable cause a downturn in trade and higher prices, although other countries could still maintain free trade without the US and could simply charge the US for trade using their own Import Certificates on US goods and even services. This would cause real problems for the US in an increasingly global economy.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wells5
That is the globalist playbook in a nutshell. The US is to be transformed into an "advanced service" economy, where intellectual capital is the main resource and what remains of basic manufacturing is to be shut down.
But the problem is that the average US citizen does not have a genius IQ and the temperament to be a semiconductor physicist, protein chemist, mechanical engineer, personal injury lawyer, etc.
Throwing more money at the educational establishment (the "duopoly's" solution) will not solve the problem.
Basic manufacturing is becoming more automated and even industries like steel are no longer labour intensive and evetually even the low level manufacturing outside of the US will be hit. The future is going to be ever more automation and it's going to mean a change in employment, with more jobs in services in areas such as heathcare, pharma and science, financial services, media, law, education, tourism, technology and internet, communications etc.
Last edited by Brave New World; 09-06-2018 at 08:49 AM..
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