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Wait a second, you mean to tell me you believe the polls? I thought the polls were fake. On wait, I get it now... The polls are like the news, it is only fake when you disagree with them, but real when it supports your side. I think that is called confirmation bias and hostile media bias.
The House will likely go blue, in the Senate, perhaps it is a deadlock at 50-50, if the Democrats can win the six potential toss up races. I can give Arizona to the dems just because McSally is too close for a "red state" like AZ where Romney beat Obama in 2012 by a near 10 point margin and Trump won by just 3.55 points. RCP averaged out a strong Republican poll with an outlier on Sinema support. In three individual polls Sinema got a 47 in a Fox News poll conducted 9/29-10/2 (right around the Kavanaugh vote), another 47 on a CBS/YouGov conducted over 10/2-5 and a 46 in the latest, a NYT/Siena from just last week. The Republican heavy ABC poll was conducted just over a two day period rather than a four/five day like the others and Sinema had a 41. Remove the outlier and Sinema has the advantage by one whole point, 46.67 to 45.67, even with McSally winning the latest poll by 2. It is too close in a historically red state.
I wouldn't be surprised if those are October surprises that help some Democrat victories. Will it get them the 6 toss up races they need to deadlock the Senate, I don't think so. It would help enough but they likely lose a seat or two this time. I just hope the Senate knows 2020 could be a bloodbath.
You believe in the polls, I always say take polls with a grain of salt.
Many of the polls have been wrong in the last 8 years, they tend to be off by 2-3 points in the democrats favor.
I have been posting links to the aggregate polling numbers, which are not always perfect, but the best overall picture we can get.
Almost all poll movement is in the direction of the Republicans since the Kavanaugh hearings. The early voting numbers support this, with the Republicans outpacing the democrats, so the OP is verifiable wrong.
As of today, the Republicans will gain seats in the senate, leaving them with about 53-55 seats.
The House is going to be close, and will likely come down to only a few seats deciding who ends up with the majority.
As the polls stand now, the Republicans are in a good position to have a real chance to retain the House. If the polling numbers are off by 2-3 points in favor of the democrats as they usually are, then the Republicans will almost certainly retain the House.
You believe in the polls, I always say take polls with a grain of salt.
Many of the polls have been wrong in the last 8 years, they tend to be off by 2-3 points in the democrats favor.
I have been posting links to the aggregate polling numbers, which are not always perfect, but the best overall picture we can get.
Almost all poll movement is in the direction of the Republicans since the Kavanaugh hearings. The early voting numbers support this, with the Republicans outpacing the democrats, so the OP is verifiable wrong.
As of today, the Republicans will gain seats in the senate, leaving them with about 53-55 seats.
The House is going to be close, and will likely come down to only a few seats deciding who ends up with the majority.
As the polls stand now, the Republicans are in a good position to have a real chance to retain the House. If the polling numbers are off by 2-3 points in favor of the democrats as they usually are, then the Republicans will almost certainly retain the House.
I think the problem with this was as I said trolling the polls. I know of at least one Trump supporter who said they did this and I'm sure there are more on ProTrump Reddits, 4Chan groups, Facebook groups, etc. Now I'm not sure if that is reactionary or what, but it is interesting with the 2-3 points
As for the AZ Senate race, even if McSally is granted that 2-3 points you talk about, she is leading poll, but it is still largely a statistical deadlock in a mostly far-right state if you throw out the outlier poll from ABC 15. As stated before, Romney won by nearly 10 points in 2012. Flake as a fresh Senator beat Richard Carmine by 3% in 2012 for his one and only term. John McCain won his last two elections with margins over 10 points and Trump won by about 3.5 points. Add in.the fact that Sinema is largely popular in Central AZ where it is mostly populated and who knows if that 2-3 points is even relevant due to the more politically active people who have been quiet until Trump or those with some signs of Trump regret.
"Kavanaugh Effect" Helping Democrats More Than Republicans
All across America, women have been very vocally expressing their opposition to tRump's agenda for the past two years.
They were especially energized by tRump nominating an accused sexual molester to the SC, as we all saw live last month.
The fact that GOP senators representing a minority of the USA (about 44%) crammed Kavanaugh through despite the very active and vocal objection of women who made their views clearly known isn't going to gain the GOP a whole lot of support, boys.
"In yesterday’s vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh, the 50 senators voting yes represent states covering just 44% of the U.S. population or 143 million Americans. That’s less than a majority, less than the 181 million Americans represented by the senators voting no (you might say the “Senate popular voteâ€). Yet the nomination was confirmed."
Let's don't even get into the GOP judiciary committee hiding 100,000 pages of documents from Kavanaugh's work in the George W Bush admin. But it's kinda interesting that they were SO afraid of whatever that info was in there.
I think the problem with this was as I said trolling the polls. I know of at least one Trump supporter who said they did this and I'm sure there are more on ProTrump Reddits, 4Chan groups, Facebook groups, etc. Now I'm not sure if that is reactionary or what, but it is interesting with the 2-3 points
As for the AZ Senate race, even if McSally is granted that 2-3 points you talk about, she is leading poll, but it is still largely a statistical deadlock in a mostly far-right state if you throw out the outlier poll from ABC 15. As stated before, Romney won by nearly 10 points in 2012. Flake as a fresh Senator beat Richard Carmine by 3% in 2012 for his one and only term. John McCain won his last two elections with margins over 10 points and Trump won by about 3.5 points. Add in.the fact that Sinema is largely popular in Central AZ where it is mostly populated and who knows if that 2-3 points is even relevant due to the more politically active people who have been quiet until Trump or those with some signs of Trump regret.
First of all, you are talking about one race, I'm talking about all the races.
I don't know how the midterms will turn out, but my point is completely accurate, the OP is verifiably wrong, all the data since the Kavanaugh hearings shows the Republicans have gained support.
First of all, you are talking about one race, I'm talking about all the races.
I don't know how the midterms will turn out, but my point is completely accurate, the OP is verifiably wrong, all the data since the Kavanaugh hearings shows the Republicans have gained support.
I am pointing to that race since it is my home state and I know the most about it. It is the only toss up I'll give the Democrats without regret of being wrong because if Sinema can get independent votes like mine and a few Republican votes like my parents, McSally will lose.
All across America, women have been very vocally expressing their opposition to tRump's agenda for the past two years.
They were especially energized by tRump nominating an accused sexual molester to the SC, as we all saw live last month.
The fact that GOP senators representing a minority of the USA (about 44%) crammed Kavanaugh through despite the very active and vocal objection of women who made their views clearly known isn't going to gain the GOP a whole lot of support, boys.
Stay tuned.
The problem is that all the data we have so far since the Kavanaugh hearings (polling, early voting turnout) all favors the Republicans.
So, all the data clearly refutes the claims by the left that the Republicans lost support because of the Kavanaugh hearings.
The democrats had every advantage in this midterm election, from the historic voting tends, to the high number of Republicans retiring form congress.
By all measures the democrats should produce the blue wave they have been promising for a year, and a half, but all the data shows the elections will be close, too close to call at this time.
The problem is that all the data we have so far since the Kavanaugh hearings (polling, early voting turnout) all favors the Republicans.
So, all the data clearly refutes the claims by the left that the Republicans lost support because of the Kavanaugh hearings.
The democrats had every advantage in this midterm election, from the historic voting tends, to the high number of Republicans retiring form congress.
By all measures the democrats should produce the blue wave they have been promising for a year, and a half, but all the data shows the elections will be close, too close to call at this time.
pull-EEZ!
You conveniently ignored the OP's data.
There's plenty in the link, unless you're afraid to look.
The problem is that all the data we have so far since the Kavanaugh hearings (polling, early voting turnout) all favors the Republicans.
So, all the data clearly refutes the claims by the left that the Republicans lost support because of the Kavanaugh hearings.
The democrats had every advantage in this midterm election, from the historic voting tends, to the high number of Republicans retiring form congress.
By all measures the democrats should produce the blue wave they have been promising for a year, and a half, but all the data shows the elections will be close, too close to call at this time.
You and the OP can both be right.
The R's can be gaining ground in the polls, but would have gained even more without the Kavanaugh confirmation. That way you're both right
I am very confident that we are going to see a Republican hold on the House and a gain of 5 seats in the Senate, which will mean that President Trump will have defied the odds. I do not see any sort of blue wave at all after the Democrats showed their true colors.
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"Kavanaugh Effect" Helping Democrats More Than Republicans
