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The key curve is the 5-year/3-month. According to the guy who discovered the inverted yield curve phenomenon in the 80's, if that curve stays inverted for 3 months or more, it's never given a false positive in signaling a recession within a year or so.
It first inverted on March 12, and has remained so ever since. So if it's still inverted by mid-June, it will have given the signal.
The key curve is the 5-year/3-month. According to the guy who discovered the inverted yield curve phenomenon in the 80's, if that curve stays inverted for 3 months or more, it's never given a false positive in signaling a recession within a year or so.
It first inverted on March 12, and has remained so ever since. So if it's still inverted by mid-June, it will have given the signal.
China knows the game they are playing. They can make up numbers out of their rear, the US can't. They will wait until we are at 15% unemployment before they make us take a deal at gunpoint.
You have posted this a few times. Last month I believe.
Whatever, yea were headed into a gigantic recession even though there are no bubbles other than student debt. I responded to your last thread with a well rounded and reasoned response. It went ignored, so yea. Go to sleep hoping there will be a massive recession proving another financial model to be correct like a broken watch.
Me, I'll remain spread invested in blue-chip equities with decent dividends, high yield IRAs (wife and myself), metals, and some cash. I also have 6 months worth of food storage, so I'm good.
3. Most similar countries are showing worse signs than the US is, if they go into recession it is unlikely we'd avoid it.
4. This is caused by bond investors (already conservative financially) thinking interest rates are more likely to fall.
5. I do think we are likely to see a drop in the stock market, most indicators suggest it has been over valued for years...thanks trillions of QE under Obama, now embraced foolishly by Trump.
The texture of the next recession depends on its timing. If we head down next year, the trigger will certainly be foreign. If we survive until 2015 or 2016, then the trigger will be tightening monetary policy. The consequences for our economy and businesses are quite different.
The overwhelming majority of mainstream economists predicts that the world’s biggest economy should have at least another two years before it runs into six months of negative growth (the official definition of recession). After 2015, however, the date for the next recession could be any time between the end of 2015 to 2018, according to economists’ forecasts.
I mean if you predict something enough, eventually you will be right.
I mean if you predict something enough, eventually you will be right.
Sad truth, the yield curve was 1.5% and not inverted. This time we are in a sustained period of inversion. You can stick your head in the sand if you want.
Sad truth, the yield curve was 1.5% and not inverted. This time we are in a sustained period of inversion. You can stick your head in the sand if you want.
Nobody has their head in the sand here, sorry to disappoint. I've said in other threads I expect a down turn, and I've said it for a while too. But you miss my point. In general this is not a POTUS induced event, its been a long time coming and people have been saying so since before Trump got on that escalator. Rallies like we have been seeing don't last forever, regardless if Trump, Obama, or Santa are in office.
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