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I fully admit that I am not a Trump fan. I didn't vote for him. I would not say that I'm not a Trump supporter, after all like it or not, the guy is the US President and I would have loved to see him succeed. I don't think he has, but that's just my opinion. I'm entitled to it, you're entitled to yours.
I do have a question that is not meant to be a dig at him or his supporters. It's totally admitted ignorance on my part as I do not have a strong enough understanding of the stock market to know the answer to this question, so I am hoping for a straight answer from someone in the know and maybe some educational and, dare I dream, respectful conversation on this topic.
Ok, in the past we've seen the market rise and fall as news breaks about any variety of things. Which tells me that the stock markets peaks and valleys are very much up to the minute reactions to things going on in the world.
If that is the case, then does the fact that the stock market is doing so well right now state that it has little to do with President Trump? Whether you think he'll be impeached or not, it would seem to me that if he were the reason the stock market was doing so well, then the threat of his possible removal from office would have stock holders holding their stocks, sorta speak.
If that is the case, then does the fact that the stock market is doing so well right now state that it has little to do with President Trump? Whether you think he'll be impeached or not, it would seem to me that if he were the reason the stock market was doing so well, then the threat of his possible removal from office would have stock holders holding their stocks, sorta speak.
Am I way off?
Trump deserves some of the credit for the stock market but not all of it. The current run we are on started under Obama and frankly, after the aughts (2000 decade), there was a lot of catch-up to get back to the long term mean so some of what we are seeing is just the pendulum swinging back.
It is quite likely the market will correct sometime in the near future and when it does that won't have a lot to do with Trump or whoever is President, it will just be the pendulum swinging.
I doubt that the market will crash if Trump gets impeached. To the extent that the market is up due to politics, it is mostly reacting to a Republican in office, not Trump, and if he is impeached there will still be a Republican in office. It will react a bit stronger to the election though.
Basically the market doesn't think Trump has anything to do with the stocks high. Hence it is unaffected by his impeachment. Even if the market thinks Trump will get away with it, there'd still be sell offs as the market hates uncertainty.
In contrast, right before Clinton's impeachment, the stock market dropped 19+%. Then the stock market recovered as the impeachment increasingly shown favorable outcome for Clinton.
Markets like stability and predictability. Trump from the beginning has signaled a pro-business, pro U.S. business environment. The markets like that. He also put in place Energy Policies that offer stable supply, and low COST. In addition, he cut corporate and individual taxes, giving more money for people to invest. The markets like all of it.
There is nothing that has come out yet to tell the markets Trump will be impeached. This adds to their belief in stability. Trump has helped to create a positive economic environment, but no President has total control of markets so while I think he should get some credit, I don't think people she think he CAUSED the economy to be positive, he just didn't hurt it.
The business cycle has very little to do with the POTUS in most cases.
Though there can be some minor effects, and the tax cut probably did extend this boom cycle longer than it otherwise would have lasted.
The tax cut was terrible for the deficit though, which means we’ve just putting off the threat of economic hardship until a later date in the hopes we can fix it before then.
The stock market is global and I really don't think Trump can dramatically effect it, and even if he is impeached the chaces are that the Republican run Senate will back him, so he won't be removed from office.
Also there is US General Election next year, and the markets are well aware of this.
I should imagine if someone with radical policies, including introducing lots of taxes and curbing the US Financial sector through legilation and red tape then that might have a knock on effect, but Trump has allowed the markets to operate unhindered and other than tariffs against China has not been that reckless.
I don't think the markets wouldrespond well to the policies being put forward by Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders or many other Democrat candidates
As a previous posted rightly pointed out markets like stability and predictability.
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