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The movement from blue states to red or red to blue isn’t the big story.
The story is the demographic change that’s occurring everywhere.
White non-college whites have been losing on average 2%/3% of their share of registered voters every 4 years for over 20 years. The reason that that is happening is because white non-college is a disproportionately older group than all the others. During the 1972 and 1984 Republican landslides that posters here wax nostalgically about, the percentage of white non-college voters among registered voters was in the range of 70 to 80%. In 2016, that percentage had fallen to 44%. It is projected to fall to 42% in 2020 and to continue to fall for the foreseeable future.
During the last census the most commonly reported age for an Hispanic was 11 years old.
For an African-American it was 27.
For an Asian it was 29.
For a white person, it was 58.
Think about that.
That figure of 58 years old is deceptive in that while white non-college is dropping like a rock, white college grads are slightly increasing, meaning that the age of white non-college is likely older than that.
According to a validated study of 2016 voters by Pew Research, this is how voters broke down by grouping:
White voters overall (74% of national voters): Trump 54% Clinton 39%
White non college (44%): Trump 64% Clinton 28%
White college graduates (30%): Clinton 55% Trump 38%
Minority non-college (19%): Clinton 77% Trump 19%
Minority college grad (7%): Clinton 68% Trump 26%
(1). The more they fear a future that will invariably lead to a minority-majority country, the more susceptible they are to white identity-based rhetoric.
(2.) As the pool of white non-college voters continues to shrink, the shriller the rhetoric gets as politicians try to mine more votes from a diminishing base.
(3.) The shriller the racial pitch becomes, the less likely their appeal can be broadened among white college graduates (who overall have more contact with different races and cultures and are less susceptible to racial politics) and to minorities of all stripes.
Using the 2012 and 2016 elections as baselines, the States of Change Project ran computerized simulations of 16 different scenarios for 2020 and for 2036. By 2036, the Democratic nominee won in 15 of the 16 scenarios.
Eventually the base has to broaden because the numbers simply do not compute.
Pubs looks to the future and they don't see themselves playing the major role that they have for the past 35 years.
And they react by doubling down on exactly what's making them shrink; social conservatism, science denial, theocratic baloney, etc. And now, they've devolved to, "tax cuts/trickle-down and whatever tRump just said."
The political identity of generations is established in early adulthood, and for most people it is retained for life. Individuals may change, but the politics of generations as a whole do not.
Yup. I've been a liberal since I was about 16. I'm 72 now.
I grew up in California in John Birch territory, and moved to Oregon when it was still a Republican state, and the Oregon county I moved to was one of the most conservative in the state. When I left for Washington, the Oregon county I moved to had turned blue, and the state was solidly Democratic (and so was the area in California where I grew up). So according to some folks here, I'm the problem. I'm very pleased to think I had so much influence. (Washington was already blue when I got here, so I can't take credit for that.)
California losing taxpayers is not a "revenge on Trump", it's only going to make conditions in California worse.
Much of California's infrastructure is many decades old and severely outdated. Their water and electric infrastructure can barely support the existing population because the state government is full of idiots who are incapable of long-term thinking or planning. Homelessness is out of control, crime is out of control, air pollution & water pollution are prevalent in many California cities, in fact most of the top 10 polluted cities in America are in California. So much for environmentalism!
Welcoming hoards of illegals and not having the proper infrastructure to handle that number of people wasn't such a bright idea after all, eh?
A few facts...
1. California is the most polluted state in the U.S.
2. California is the poorest state in the U.S. (when taking into account cost of living expenses)
3. California has a higher percentage of homeless people than any other state
4. 1/3 of all the welfare recipients in the U.S. live in California
Along with a wave of middle class and poor escaping California's high taxes and high cost of living, recent reports seem to suggest that the wealthy are starting to leave as well -- AND... tech companies are starting to escape and relocate elsewhere too.
If California loses a good portion of their wealthy residents and tech businesses, then the state will become insolvent. It won't be able to sustain itself, it will effectively collapse.
I was a Democratic fiscal conservative, but switched to independent. I’m an avid cyclist and do my part. Tough being a moderate these days with so much hate on both sides.
I’m probably not so different than you. It’s just that what I get on fiscal from the right can’t balance the damage to the environment and a hundred other smaller issues. I also wont trade the environment for small temporary fiscal gains.
Bailing out farmers is socialism... But that doesn't fit your agenda.
Also quit gaslighting us about where the tax cuts went. Middle class got scraps, mostly skewed towards wealthy and corps. In fact corps got the only permanent cut.
We did get trillions in extra debt though, but something tells me you're going to give that a free pass until Trump is out of office
First, there should not be any federal subsidies going to any industries.
Second, it's very telling what you consider scraps.
California losing taxpayers is not a "revenge on Trump", it's only going to make conditions in California worse.
Much of California's infrastructure is many decades old and severely outdated. Their water and electric infrastructure can barely support the existing population because the state government is full of idiots who are incapable of long-term thinking or planning. Homelessness is out of control, crime is out of control, air pollution & water pollution are prevalent in many California cities, in fact most of the top 10 polluted cities in America are in California. So much for environmentalism!
Welcoming hoards of illegals and not having the proper infrastructure to handle that number of people wasn't such a bright idea after all, eh?
A few facts...
1. California is the most polluted state in the U.S.
2. California is the poorest state in the U.S. (when taking into account cost of living expenses)
3. California has a higher percentage of homeless people than any other state
4. 1/3 of all the welfare recipients in the U.S. live in California
Along with a wave of middle class and poor escaping California's high taxes and high cost of living, recent reports seem to suggest that the wealthy are starting to leave as well -- AND... tech companies are starting to escape and relocate elsewhere too.
If California loses a good portion of their wealthy residents and tech businesses, then the state will become insolvent. It won't be able to sustain itself, it will effectively collapse.
Yet it's the 5th biggest economy in the world, and still doesn't touch Trump ****holes for per capita poverty, like WV KY LA and MS. As a Floridian myself, I think the centrist states like TX and FL are the best places to live, but given the choice of living in WV, MS or CA, I'll take Cali all day.
True story, my BIL is taking his adult kids and grandkids (10 people) to Alaska this summer from the East Coast. He refuses to fly into California or Seattle to get to Vancouver because he hates the West Coast so much. He'll pay more and fly through Canada to avoid it.
How much more stereotyping can you and Bureaucat engage in? Oh, she’s black, she must be liberal. Or, His native language, he must be for same sex...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Gringo
That's it in a nutshell.
Pubs looks to the future and they don't see themselves playing the major role that they have for the past 35 years.
And they react by doubling down on exactly what's making them shrink; social conservatism, science denial, theocratic baloney, etc. And now, they've devolved to, "tax cuts/trickle-down and whatever tRump just said."
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