This is why death predictions are so high (deaths, solution, crimes)

[PedroMartinez]

Health experts are predicting extremely high fatality rates because it's a no lose situation.

If the number of death are really high, they take credit for their predictions.

If the number is significantly lower than their predictions, they will claim the response to their predictions triggered the actions that kept it low.

Greatly overestimating the mortality rate is the safest bet for these people.

[bawac34618]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

Health experts are predicting extremely high fatality rates because it's a no lose situation.

If the number of death are really high, they take credit for their predictions.

If the number is significantly lower than their predictions, they will claim the response to their predictions triggered the actions that kept it low.

Greatly overestimating the mortality rate is the safest bet for these people.

If we just go back to business as usual and the mortality/hospitalization rate is really as serious as scientists and doctors predict it will be, can we arrest and charge Rush, Hannity, and Trump with crimes against humanity?

[PedroMartinez]

Originally Posted by bawac34618

If we just go back to business as usual and the mortality/hospitalization rate is really as serious as scientists and doctors predict it will be, can we arrest and charge Rush, Hannity, and Trump with crimes against humanity?

NOBODY is saying to go back to business as usual.

Glad to see you're as partisan as always.

[don1945]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

Health experts are predicting extremely high fatality rates because it's a no lose situation.

If the number of death are really high, they take credit for their predictions.

If the number is significantly lower than their predictions, they will claim the response to their predictions triggered the actions that kept it low.

Greatly overestimating the mortality rate is the safest bet for these people.

So, what is your point and your solution there, Pedro ?

[eddie gein]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

Health experts are predicting extremely high fatality rates because it's a no lose situation.

If the number of death are really high, they take credit for their predictions.

If the number is significantly lower than their predictions, they will claim the response to their predictions triggered the actions that kept it low.

Greatly overestimating the mortality rate is the safest bet for these people.

Could be because they are health experts and are able to predict the outcomes with relative accuracy.

You are on record as saying that the death toll won't be higher than 20K. If you are correct I'll defer to you as "the expert".

[moneill]

So for those saying we should not just shut down. What exactly should be getting back on track. I do think if we can have a nuanced, measured approach to returning to 'business' we should (Those were Cuomo's words -- he wasn't calling for all of us to jump into a crowded church on Easter Sunday but did agree approaching some kind of getting back to business idea).

What does it mean to 'open for business' even in a small way?

[PedroMartinez]

Originally Posted by don1945

So, what is your point and your solution there, Pedro ?

The point is to take these predictions with a grain of salt.

[Cantabridgienne]

I mean, why even have scientists and doctors when we have randos on Internet forums who have the real hot take?

[PedroMartinez]

Originally Posted by Cantabridgienne

I mean, why even have scientists and doctors when we have randos on Internet forums who have the real hot take?

You believe the primary job of doctors and scientists is to make predictions based on little data?

Before you answer that, ask yourself how long there has been widespread testing in the US.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by PedroMartinez

You believe the primary job of doctors and scientists is to make predictions based on little data?

Before you answer that, ask yourself how long there has been widespread testing in the US.

The death toll for any country will largely hinge upon whether hospitals get overwhelmed or not.

If they aren't then modern medicine will keep a good number alive.

If they are (points at Italy) then you might as well be back in 1918 without a ventilator etc. and the deaths will pile up quite quickly.

While people can argue about what the current death rate is with treatment (a couple percent is the rough consensus) the death rate in 1918 was generally estimated at 10% give or take or at least 2-3x higher.