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testing has clearly been an issue. Seems to me that's the CDC's responsibility. It would be great for an actual simple question "why are drive-up sites lagging?"
and as to the "want a test, get a test" - I linked the CDC facility appearance this seemed to emanate from. The one where 4 times he said NEED a test, and only once "if a doctor wants a test". Hopefully that post from yesterday still exists. I keep wondering if Trump stated it as "anybody who wants a test can get a test" at another appearance.
It certainly makes a difference, and yes, if he said it - it's one of his errors in this. Just as in hindsight "15 cases and soon will be zero" was the wrong thing to say. He did say that in the containment phase - trying to keep it out. He didn't say that once mitigation (end of February) became the strategy the experts said we needed. But yes, he downplayed the virus when he could have been sounding the alarm.
The "I felt it was a pandemic long before..." is stupid, and just typical Trump bluster. In the end, it plays no role in the growth of or solving the virus crisis.
"testing has clearly been an issue. Seems to me that's the CDC's responsibility."
Your " Seems to me"s is WRONG. It is up to each STATE, cite etc, to be the boots on the ground, so to speak.
It is up to THEM go stockpile the necessary equipment mask, cots, gloves, etc. Why didn't they have them EVEN after being told they were needed YEARS ago.
We have been trying to find cure for the common cold for how many dozens of decades and have NOT succeeded, but you think we can find cure for this virus in a couple of months.
Question: When can the economy of a nation be reopened after being hit by the virus?
Answer: When the number of new cases per day drops low enough that:
1. Newly infected people are placed successfully quarantined:
2. Closely associated people like spouses, and housemates are also quarantined: and
3. Associated people like coworkers and classmates are tested.
or,
The virus has spread into the population to such a degree that a good portion of the population has already suffered from it.
Italy began a nationwide lock down on March 10, 2020 and new cases peaked around March 20. Since the peak the rate of new infections has steadily declined however, is still at about 2500 new cases per day. Could Italy quarantine 2500 new cases and closely associated people per day as well as test and track potential contacts? Probably not. Therefore, Italy must continue being locked down until their numbers drop further.
South Korea peaked earlier than Italy on March 4. Massive early testing helped them contain the virus to a degree that their number of cases dropped dramatically. The new cases are now around only 20 per day. Placing only 20 people into quarantine and testing/tracking their contacts is certainly within the capability of a country like South Korea. Therefore, they likely can carefully reopen most of its economy and contain any new outbreaks.
The ability to do testing in the Philippines was slow to ramp up. However, the great majority of its population has been locked down since March 16th. It is difficult from the graph to pinpoint where the peak in cases occurred, however, it is clear the peak has occurred already and figures are dropping. Nationwide, new cases is now around 200 per days and most of these are on the island of Luzon where Manila is located.
In other parts of the Philippines the virus is almost completely absent. For example on Palawan, just 2 cases have been identified in total. Isolating, tracking and testing of a case load this small certainly should be manageable. Therefore, most islands of the Philippines can be reopened now. Travel between islands that also have very low case numbers should also be allowed now.
Luzon and Manila can be reopened as soon as the number of cases drops to a level low enough that containment and tracking of contacts is manageable. Based upon the curve of South Korea, this should occur for Manila the end of April.
In summary the Philippines is well on its way to being 100% virus contained and the expiration of the current lock downs is about right. However, once again reopening of the economy depends upon actually doing the work to quarantine those who are infected, quarantine closely associated family, and testing of coworkers.
Since April 1st, the number of new cases per day in the US has averaged around 30,000. While it appears the US has peaked, the problem is New York City. Yesterday was the highest figure for NYC so far, therefore it is unlikely the US has peaked yet.
However, lets be optimistic. If we pretend the US peaked yesterday, what will the US be like one month from now on May 15th?
Based on the Italian curve, the US will still have over 10,000 new cases per day. If the US has not yet peaked, or it doesn't maintain a similar lock down as Italy, then figure on May 15 will be far higher.
Is the US doing as much Italy? Absolutely of not, testing in the US has been dropping instead of rising. Many politicians are pushing to eliminate lock downs and prevent lock downs where they don't exist. For example in South Dakota, site of a single factory with 644 confirmed cases, there is still no lock down.
Therefore, come May 15 figures in the US will likely be far higher than 10,000 per day.
Today a NY hospital reported that they were testing all women admitted to the hospital to give birth. They found about 14% of the women were positive and that the vast majority of these were currently symptom free. The roundish number to conclude from this study is that in NYC for every positive test result that there are 10 times as many people in the community that actively have, or already had the virus.
If we use the 10 figure, this means combined diagnosed and undiagnosed cases for the US is around 6 million Americans. Small wonder people are pushing to reopen businesses. They know the virus can't be stopped until a lot more people are infected.
Sadly, NYC is really taking down the whole country. With the NYC metro area making up 1/3 of the cases in the country, the overall infection rates of the US look quite bad-without them we are lower than most developed nations. Travelers/commuters to NYC have managed to heavily infect most of the surrounding area, including Long Island, Northern NJ and Connecticut. It is becoming more clear every day that the area around NYC should have been under a quarantine weeks ago, with no one allowed in or out (with the exception of truckers/deliveries under carefully controlled conditions). Too late now-the virus has been allowed to spread for far too long from the NYC area, killing people all across the country.
Which is what every metro will look like if we just "let it rip" like Trump seems to be itching for.
you've got your "Trump blinders" on. He's talking about staggered re-opening. There's NOT a metro in any of the states they mentioned yesterday.
There's nowhere CLOSE to NYC density. Newsom and the people of CA seem to have done a great job. Given the density and the work commutes, we have to be very careful in the NE corridor.
Of the 10 states with more cases/MM than the US average (yes, that's how much these skew the #'s) - there's only 1 that's not dense: Louisiana
The next closest in that top 10 would be MI. 78% of MI's cases are in just 4 counties surrounding Detroit.
"testing has clearly been an issue. Seems to me that's the CDC's responsibility."
Your " Seems to me"s is WRONG. It is up to each STATE, cite etc, to be the boots on the ground, so to speak.
It is up to THEM go stockpile the necessary equipment mask, cots, gloves, etc. Why didn't they have them EVEN after being told they were needed YEARS ago.
We have been trying to find cure for the common cold for how many dozens of decades and have NOT succeeded, but you think we can find cure for this virus in a couple of months.
when was a test = PPE?
the CDC did not have an accurate test in a timely fashion.
the CDC neither had the capacity to produce the tests nor determine the test results
So South Korean citizens are retesting positive for this virus. LOL @ this fool government here thinking they are going to rush easing restrictions and reopening the economy. Freaking FOOLS. They need to just lock everything the hell down until there is a legit PROVEN vaccine
you've got your "Trump blinders" on. He's talking about staggered re-opening. There's NOT a metro in any of the states they mentioned yesterday.
There's nowhere CLOSE to NYC density. Newsom and the people of CA seem to have done a great job. Given the density and the work commutes, we have to be very careful in the NE corridor.
Of the 10 states with more cases/MM than the US average (yes, that's how much these skew the #'s) - there's only 1 that's not dense: Louisiana
The next closest in that top 10 would be MI. 78% of MI's cases are in just 4 counties surrounding Detroit.
What percent of GDP are these places? Minimal I would guess. Opening a few places in flyover country is a drop in the economic bucket. The 10 states that are in regional agreements, on the other hand, make up 40% of the US economy. If one adds in the many states that will listen to their health departments instead of Trump's re-election committee, the restart is a long way off.
Sinovac, a Chinese vaccine maker, says they will complete safety and efficacy testing on their COVID vaccine by June. China has dedicated a land area to build a vaccine manufacturing facility. Remember when the US was a leader?
So South Korean citizens are retesting positive for this virus. LOL @ this fool government here thinking they are going to rush easing restrictions and reopening the economy. Freaking FOOLS. They need to just lock everything the hell down until there is a legit PROVEN vaccine
<sarcasm>
Nah, that's too careless. We all need to send soldiers to round everybody up and put them into maximum security prisons. With 24/7 solitary confinement, gruel for food, a plywood board for a bed, and daily beatings.
</sarcasm>
Last edited by MillennialUrbanist; 04-16-2020 at 07:21 AM..
What percent of GDP are these places? Minimal I would guess. Opening a few places in flyover country is a drop in the economic bucket. The 10 states that are in regional agreements, on the other hand, make up 40% of the US economy. If one adds in the many states that will listen to their health departments instead of Trump's re-election committee, the restart is a long way off.
Trump is going to make a big show today of re-opening the economy in a week or two. Regional coordination will mean that his announcement will have little actual effect on the areas that are the economic drivers of our country. However, it will allow him to scapegoat "the Dems" for the flailing economy (because they have taken a cautious, data-driven approach rather than simply opening up) despite the fact that simply opening everything up won't cure the economy due to lacking consumer demand flowing from uncertainty about the virus anyway. Plus, by issuing mere "guidelines" but passing the buck to the governors, Trump will be able to blame the governors who do recklessly open up when covid flares up again due to the end of social distancing. Put differently, his pronouncement will let him pin all the blame on others, as usual.
Of course, the collateral damage for this political stunt will be unnecessary lives lost, especially in the middle of the country, which will (ironically) areas more populated by his own supporters.
Let that sink in: He is willing to, quite literally, sacrifice the lives of the people who support him for political ammunition.
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