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Well, if MOST hospitals are now well-prepared, should we start relaxing things somewhat and let the virus take its natural course?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceece
People are going to get sick no matter how long we stay quarantined. The virus won't just disappear one day.
Well, that's where you're wrong.
In the case of Spanish Flu, it killed everyone and those it didn't kill were either naturally immune or developed immunity from a mild case of it.
That's why Spanish Flu suddenly died out. No more hosts available.
Did you know that four strains of the corona virus cause the common cold?
If you've had 10 colds, it's likely 3 of them were caused by corona and not rhinovirus, which is also responsible for the common cold.
So, why do you keep getting colds?
Because the immunity doesn't last.
The antigens for two of the corona virus that cause the common cold, OC43 and 229E, only last 4 weeks.
After 4 weeks, you can get re-infected.
That's why you get a flu "shot" (not a vaccine) every year, because the immunity is only long enough to get you through flu season.
So....question...how long does the immunity to COVID-19 last?
Nobody knows yet.
For Spanish Flu, the immunity lasted longer than normal strains of influenza and it just ran out of hosts, you know, people.
If all the hosts are dead or immune, the virus cannot replicate and it ultimately dies out.
Note that Spanish Flu was first detected in 1915, so it took 1915-1919 for it to run its course.
If the immunity to COVID-19 only lasts a few weeks and you open the flood-gates, it's all for naught because you'll be right back here in no time flat.
If the immunity to COVID-19 only lasts a few weeks and you open the flood-gates, it's all for naught because you'll be right back here in no time flat.
If immunity to COVID-19 only lasts a few weeks AND we insist on maintaining efforts to prevent it from spreading and save everyone who might die of it, everything we do is for naught no matter what. In that case, short temporary immunity + have to save everyone means no vaccine, no end to lockdown, no return of the economy, no hope for the future, nothing but people huddled in their houses waiting to die of disease, starvation, or (most likely) suicide.
Moreover, if a COVID "vaccine" is like the current flu shot, needing to be given annually and conferring only about 15-40% efficacy against COVID, it would not be very helpful. Too many people would still get sick and die; we'd need to lock the world down for 6 months out of every year.
If immunity to COVID-19 only lasts a few weeks AND we insist on maintaining efforts to prevent it from spreading and save everyone who might die of it, everything we do is for naught no matter what. In that case, short temporary immunity + have to save everyone means no vaccine, no end to lockdown, no return of the economy, no hope for the future, nothing but people huddled in their houses waiting to die of disease, starvation, or (most likely) suicide.
So many doomsdayers here.
People are also adaptive if they want to be.
Those who want to adapt are working at home. Many others have chosen to isolate and separate. For those people, getting along a private society will be just fine. Those who must go everywhere at all times of the day and night just to show off (also known as the "Look at me, I am important because I want culture, diversity and all that crowd) are proving themselves to be wimps in all this.
My heart goes out to the unemployed and all those that have lost or are losing their livelihoods. I think everyone else just needs to grow up and be patient.
I haven't asked but I'd bet my family back in TX are losing their minds right about now. These are folks that look for any excuse to leave the house and go somewhere to "do something". Read books, people. Netflix, YouTube, cook, clean, etc. Learn how to enjoy your home.
My heart goes out to the unemployed and all those that have lost or are losing their livelihoods. I think everyone else just needs to grow up and be patient.
I haven't asked but I'd bet my family back in TX are losing their minds right about now. These are folks that look for any excuse to leave the house and go somewhere to "do something". Read books, people. Netflix, YouTube, cook, clean, etc. Learn how to enjoy your home.
I would like to think that eventually even the most hardcore "stay homers" will tire of it, especially as more data becomes available. My prediction:
Stay at home orders and all of their wildly inconsistent restrictions: April 30th (possibly mid-May for hard-hit areas)
General social distancing guidelines: June 1st
I think that the hard-cores probably fall within two different groups:
1. People whose lives haven't been affected much by this because they're working from home/have always worked from home/are retired/never left their houses very often anyway.
2. Strident left/liberal types who use this as their latest proof that they're smarter/more morally upright/all-around better than people who don't think/act just as they do. I suspect that many of these people don't practice what they preach and actually spend a lot of time walking around their neighborhoods/hanging out in parks/taking trips to Trader Joes, etc.
People who don't fall into one of these groups will be getting very restless, very soon, if they haven't already. And as I said, I'd bet that many people in group 2 will be among the restless, their internet rants notwithstanding.
I think that the hard-cores probably fall within two different groups:
1. People whose lives haven't been affected much by this because they're working from home/have always worked from home/are retired/never left their houses very often anyway.
2. Strident left/liberal types who use this as their latest proof that they're smarter/more morally upright/all-around better than people who don't think/act just as they do. I suspect that many of these people don't practice what they preach and actually spend a lot of time walking around their neighborhoods/hanging out in parks/taking trips to Trader Joes, etc.
People who don't fall into one of these groups will be getting very restless, very soon, if they haven't already. And as I said, I'd bet that many people in group 2 will be among the restless, their internet rants notwithstanding.
EXACTLY. Let's check in with group #2 in a few months and see if the "look at me saving the world by hanging out in my jammies all day playing board games #teamquarantine #stayhome" social media posts are still flying around. Somehow I don't think they will be.
I think that the hard-cores probably fall within two different groups:
1. People whose lives haven't been affected much by this because they're working from home/have always worked from home/are retired/never left their houses very often anyway.
2. Strident left/liberal types who use this as their latest proof that they're smarter/more morally upright/all-around better than people who don't think/act just as they do. I suspect that many of these people don't practice what they preach and actually spend a lot of time walking around their neighborhoods/hanging out in parks/taking trips to Trader Joes, etc.
People who don't fall into one of these groups will be getting very restless, very soon, if they haven't already. And as I said, I'd bet that many people in group 2 will be among the restless, their internet rants notwithstanding.
Absolutely. My social media is clogged with people bragging about how they love working from home and/or how they love quarantine so much they could live like this forever. Fine, let them. Especially annoying to hear from all the well-to-do retired folks who have it made in the shade. I guess that is your group #1.
The group #2 are the ones who keep trying to shame me and accuse me of lacking compassion because I question the extremity of the measures taken by the government and think we should reopen as soon as possible. "But don't you realize more people are going to die if we do that??" "What about your grandparents, aunties and uncles, elderly parents?" Well, you know what, I've already lost both parents, all my grandparents, all my aunts and uncles, two cousins, and a sister. All by the time I was 50. I don't want anyone else to lose their elderly relatives but let's be realistic here, no one lives forever. Is it better to die of cancer, Alzheimer's disease, kidney failure or a heart attack than to die of a virus?
In the meantime, I'm worried about my friend who desperately needs a biopsy done in a surgical center and can't get an appointment because the surgical centers are closed. I'm worried about another friend whose nearly 20-year-old kidney transplant is failing and who needs a surgery so he can get dialysis. He's having trouble with that, too. There are thousands of people who are falling through the cracks because we are deciding to save "this group" of people from "this disease" at the expense of "that group" with "every other condition," and that's not morally right either.
EXACTLY. Let's check in with group #2 in a few months and see if the "look at me saving the world by hanging out in my jammies all day playing board games #teamquarantine #stayhome" social media posts are still flying around. Somehow I don't think they will be.
It takes a 40 year old,40 YEARS to be who they are... you think two months with a minor virus is going to change people... a virus that only seriously affects less than 1% of the population and likely less than 1% of that even dies... oh yeah, that’s going to cause people to change... that is if you believe in what the media tells you to think...
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