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Ultimately, what difference does it really make? 20% of NYC has been exposed to the bug in a few weeks. Antibody testing indicates that perhaps 50 million Americans already have been exposed, and growing every day. All, again, in just a few weeks, in spite of "social distancing". By the time the kits will be out in anywhere near the volumes needed to test everyone, most will have been exposed, we'll turn the curve on herd immunity and the bug will die down. Let alone by the time a vaccine is ready. The test kits will end up being as unnecessary at those ventilators GM and Ford are supposed to start making someday.
Keep nursing homes locked down, test everyone admitted or working there, but get the country to work.
A vaccine may be injected or given oraly. Polio was an oral vaccine on a sugar cube for a lot of children in the 50s. However you get it, you are vaccinated.
My point is, with a simple, low cost test, everyone could be tested, perhaps multiple times if needed. I've lost count how many times I've been tested for TB. You can not contain a highly contagious disease if you don't where it is and who has it. If we had known every person that was infected and confined them, then the rest of us could had gone about our daily business with out shutting down every thing. After a couple weeks, all the confined could get back to work. It's done.
The problem with that is the tests are not fail proof. Plus, they do not know if having tested positive means that will give you immunity in the future, i.e. like measles immunity.
The problem with that is the tests are not fail proof. Plus, they do not know if having tested positive means that will give you immunity in the future, i.e. like measles immunity.
My understanding is testing research is on going. Vaguly, I've heard some test developed seem to be better than others. Again, hear say, some tests produce results in minutes. IF a quick, easy test could produce results in 15 minutes or less, people could be tested before they go to work, every day if necessary.
FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “The FDA’s around-the-clock work since this outbreak began has resulted in the authorization of more than 50 diagnostic tests and engagement with over 350 test developers. "
"the FDA recently began granting emergency use authorization (EUA) to rapid diagnostic PCR tests that manufacturers say can deliver results in less than an hour. "
it wasn't the infections / exposure that were "in spite of" social distancing - it was the "few weeks" that is BECAUSE of social distancing. As many experts have stated many times - flattening the curve is about spreading the timeline - not reducing the dead-count. It hasn't been a "few weeks" though - it's been 8. It took most of April to kill 50,000 Americans.
Without social distancing, we would have only needed a week to do that.
The problem with that is the tests are not fail proof. Plus, they do not know if having tested positive means that will give you immunity in the future, i.e. like measles immunity.
The scope of the problem is so vast I simply don't see how we can overcome the roadblocks. First there is the sheer size of the population that needs to be tested. I don't think naysayers around here comprehend how big a number 325 million actually is. Second, the test are not reliable. Third, how do you deliver 325 million tests to the public, read them and then get the results to governing bodies? Fourth, what do you do about asymptomatic people who give a false-negative? Fifth, what about reinfections? Sixth, what do you about kids who will infect and reinfect and reinfect again? Others could add another 10 problems to that short list. Bottom line: "testing" makes for a valiant effort by government bodies and scientists to demonstrate they're trying to stop the disease and the argument can be made that we have to do something--ANYTHING to try to stop the spread. But the simple truth is this disease is only going to go down when IT chooses to, not us. And until that happens the disease will continue to spread among us causing roughly 2000 deaths per day no matter what we do.
The scope of the problem is so vast I simply don't see how we can overcome the roadblocks. First there is the sheer size of the population that needs to be tested. I don't think naysayers around here comprehend how big a number 325 million actually is. Second, the test are not reliable. Third, how do you deliver 325 million tests to the public, read them and then get the results to governing bodies? Fourth, what do you do about asymptomatic people who give a false-negative? Fifth, what about reinfections? Sixth, what do you about kids who will infect and reinfect and reinfect again? Others could add another 10 problems to that short list. Bottom line: "testing" makes for a valiant effort by government bodies and scientists to demonstrate they're trying to stop the disease and the argument can be made that we have to do something--ANYTHING to try to stop the spread. But the simple truth is this disease is only going to go down when IT chooses to, not us. And until that happens the disease will continue to spread among us causing roughly 2000 deaths per day no matter what we do.
I think you're being unnecessarily negative. A large population just becomes a scaling issue, and we can manage that. No test is 100% reliable; it just needs to be reliable enough to allow management of the spread. The goal is to get the reinfection rate below one and to keep it there, which means the pandemic will die down over time. Ultimately, we'll get a vaccine prepared and then we can move on.
It's the only way to stop the made up data we're hearing about fatality rates and the need to stay in lockdown. If most people have already had it, then keeping the economy hostage is just not necessary.
Yeah, I'm sure that's exactly what Italy, Spain, France and England are thinking. Trump's keeping them hostage.
People are dead. Lots and lots of people. Don't want to believe NY data? Fine. You think the whole planet is in on it?
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