Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It's hard to ignore that new cases and deaths are trending downward quickly in NY. Today they are 4th in deaths, behind NJ, MA and PA. Antibody testing revealed that in NYC, 25% of the population has had the virus, nearly 15% across the state. That is far too many people to effectively "contain"-if no other factors had changed, their case count should be exploding. Instead-it's dropping. I am unaware of any drastic changes in their response plans. No additional businesses have been shut down, no subways have been shut down, yet cases continue to drop. What changed? With their level of infection, it's hard to ignore the impact of herd immunity helping turn the corner.
It takes 70-90% of a population with antibodies via exposure to a pathogen or vaccine with antibody production to reach herd immunity...
20% antibody positive testing in NYC which is what I have read has been potentially reached is nowhere near enough to provide even a semblance of herd immunity.
What makes sense is the obvious, social distancing, stay at home orders, closing of restaurants all the things NYC is still doing is working as it should...
It takes 70-90% of a population with antibodies via exposure to a pathogen or vaccine with antibody production to reach herd immunity...
20% antibody positive testing in NYC which is what I have read has been potentially reached is nowhere near enough to provide even a semblance of herd immunity.
What makes sense is the obvious, social distancing, stay at home orders, closing of restaurants all the things NYC is still doing is working as it should...
Aw come on now -- you threw in numbers and some science and medicine -- we want feelings....and unicorns and dreams and wishes.
It takes 70-90% of a population with antibodies via exposure to a pathogen or vaccine with antibody production to reach herd immunity...
20% antibody positive testing in NYC which is what I have read has been potentially reached is nowhere near enough to provide even a semblance of herd immunity.
What makes sense is the obvious, social distancing, stay at home orders, closing of restaurants all the things NYC is still doing is working as it should...
Yes. Ignoring the effects of these safety measures is baffling. They do say people have short attention spans, but come on.
Most countries are suffering severely from the ongoing covid-19 pandemic despite various levels of preventive measures. A common question is if and when a country or region will reach herd immunity h. The classical herd immunity level hC is defined as hC=1−1/R0, where R0 is the basic reproduction number, for covid-19 estimated to lie somewhere in the range 2.2-3.5 depending on country and region. It is shown here that the disease-induced herd immunity level hD, after an outbreak has taken place in a country/region with a set of preventive measures put in place, is actually substantially smaller than hC. As an illustration we show that if R0=2.5 in an age-structured community with mixing rates fitted to social activity studies, and also categorizing individuals into three categories: low active, average active and high active, and where preventive measures affect all mixing rates proportionally, then the disease-induced herd immunity level is hD=43% rather than hC=1−1/2.5=60%. Consequently, a lower fraction infected is required for herd immunity to appear. The underlying reason is that when immunity is induced by disease spreading, the proportion infected in groups with high contact rates is greater than that in groups with low contact rates. Consequently, disease-induced immunity is stronger than when immunity is uniformly distributed in the community as in the classical herd immunity level.
Ugly way to gain immunity, but hopefully it's the light at the end of the tunnel...
There really is no other way to get there. There is no reason to expect a virus to be developed quickly-if at all. Few, if any, other coronaviruses have an effective vaccine-it seems like grasping at straws to think that there will be one for this one-let alone reasonably quickly. The drop in Rt values is really encouraging.
Nahh.. Its social distancing, isolation , closing all establishments, and...warm weather. Just wait until the weather starts getting cold again. Transmission rate is much more difficult for a virus in warm weather.
This should be interpreted as an illustration,rather than an exact value or even a best estimate.
But the most useful info from the report itself is THIS sentence:
March 15 preventive measures...are put in place and it is seen that the growth rate is reduced .
So there ya have it: You're using a link to prove low herd immunity by using a link that proves the lock down worked.
Thanks.
Meantime, toyman, I have never agreed with anything you've said until today: SOMETHING is going on in New York.
Is it springtime? Is the whole place immune (whatever the percent is - and I WANT it to be 43%)? Did it just mutate and die out there? Something important is happening there - time will tell - but with zero evidence to help me, I "feel" like it's a good sign. Right now - with all the available ammo new york has to offer - they are struggling to infect just a few hundred people now each day. Not kill. Infect. Maybe they ARE immune. Sunshine, whatever. I'll take it.
Nahh.. Its social distancing, isolation , closing all establishments, and...warm weather. Just wait until the weather starts getting cold again. Transmission rate is much more difficult for a virus in warm weather.
Warmth and sunlight dramatically shortens the half-life of the virus, meaning an exposure is likely to come from a lower viral load and cause a less severe infection. And warmth and sunlight boost our immune systems. Common sense says that if exposure is inevitable, far better that it happens this summer than next fall or winter. Not only are infections typically more severe in cold, wet weather, but hospitals are also usually near capacity with the seasonal flu.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
