It’s official: US recession began in February, ending record-long expansion (unemployment, wages)
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Come on, y'all, that is fake news and everybody knows it. There is no recession, and if the Dow has been any indication lately, then you can clearly see that things are looking up. People who lost jobs during COVID-19 (in case you have suddenly forgotten) will certainly get back on their feet again. We will have an explosive, crazy-good third quarter.
You need to stop looking at Fake News. They will mislead you.
Wall Street doesn't reflect what's happening on Main Street. You can't just go by the Dow, that only matters to the 50% of Americans who have investments. Stocks can drop in a recession and usually do, but stocks aren't the only factor.
I think a lot will depend on how quickly businesses can recover (if they can) from the pandemic. Where I am at, restaurants, for example, are open, but they are still losing money because they can't fill to capacity. They may still go out of business. I also think a lot depends on if we have a second wave of this thing in the fall.
I am really hoping that there is no spike after all these protests/Covid fades out more. I am also hoping for an early vaccine.
That's the thing. To be declared a "recession" the GDP must fall in two successive months prior, so it was underway in December and marked as such beginning in February. Trump declared a pandemic in mid-March. Sorry the timeline and narrative doesn't work for you but this is clearly Trump's recession.
A recession is defined as two consecutive QUARTERS of negative growth. Although this group claims to use other indicators as well.
Interestingly, this has been declared prior to the second quarter actually ending. Why the need to pronounce it early as the economy starts to build, one has to hope politics is not involved.
And in a couple of months they'll have to report that President Trump brought us through a recession, the COVID pandemic and the George Floyd riots all in a few months time. He's a shoe in!
Maybe. Given his opponent, it is likely that he will win, but he didn't bring us through anything, he just brought chaos into it. In the end the country always comes through no matter who is in charge.
this is not any one president's recession. it is an economic cycle.
if anything, the fed should be held responsible because keeping interest rates low, creating an artificial expansion for over a decade.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but that would mean the pandemic can't be the cause of it. An accelerant perhaps, but not the blame. Can't have it both ways.
A recession is defined as two consecutive QUARTERS of negative growth. Although this group claims to use other indicators as well.
Interestingly, this has been declared prior to the second quarter actually ending. Why the need to pronounce it early as the economy starts to build, one has to hope politics is not involved.
That doesn't define a recession. That's just how it's often measured. A recession can officially be declared without that data.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but that would mean the pandemic can't be the cause of it. An accelerant perhaps, but not the blame. Can't have it both ways.
The issues started in Nov. 2019 when the Fed. started QE 4 doing overnight purchases of short term security's. The credit markets were starting to lock up. That's why we took profit in January.
Trump and GOP action's have killed the longest recovery in our life times.
A recession is defined as two consecutive QUARTERS of negative growth. Although this group claims to use other indicators as well.
Interestingly, this has been declared prior to the second quarter actually ending. Why the need to pronounce it early as the economy starts to build, one has to hope politics is not involved.
I"ll defer to you on that but it still means the wheels were in motion with or without the pandemic as a factor. That's the point Trump supporters aren't willing acknowledge.
The U.S. economy entered a recession in February, a group of economists declared Monday, ending the longest expansion on record.
The economists said employment peaked in February and fell sharply afterward, marking the beginning of the downturn.
That's Classic Propaganda & Disinformation.
That "group of economists" has moved the goal posts in order to push a political agenda and it looks like a lot of people bought into it hook, line and sinker, because they heard what they wanted to hear.
A recession occurs when there are two -- not one -- but two consecutive fiscal quarters of economic contraction.
The employment rate has never had a bearing on recessions.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but that would mean the pandemic can't be the cause of it. An accelerant perhaps, but not the blame. Can't have it both ways.
correct, the pandemic was not the root cause, but merely the pin that pricked the bubble.
there were a few economic indicators that pointed to weakness in the economy back in fall 2019.
That "group of economists" has moved the goal posts in order to push a political agenda and it looks like a lot of people bought into it hook, line and sinker, because they heard what they wanted to hear.
A recession occurs when there are two -- not one -- but two consecutive fiscal quarters of economic contraction.
The employment rate has never had a bearing on recessions.
It is an assessment from National Bureau of Economic Research, and you are free to disagree with them.
The growth will be negative for the 1st two quarters. I dont see any way around that.
Fortunately they added that the recession will probably be a short one since it is mostly fueled by the pandemic, which is pretty much in line with what I have been saying too.
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