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Average daily deaths in the U.S. in mid April peaked at about 2,200 a day and then steadily declined from the second week of May until last week when they bottomed out at a 7 day average of 517 (despite the steep increase in diagnosed cases over the past three weeks). At first I thought, maybe this steep increase was just due to testing because the death rates were still in decline. However, the trend reversed itself this week with nearly 1,000 deaths both on Tuesday and today and it keeps going up. Do you think of the trend continues we could hit a higher daily death toll than April?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
(Since there's always a sharp decline in daily deaths on Sundays and Mondays and a spike on Tuesdays due to not counting all deaths on the weekend, I prefer looking at the 7 day averages rather than day to day trends).
I hope not, but Covid patients are filling ICUs where they are incubated, and the longer a patient stays incubated the less likely they are to survive.
Fortunately much of the nation is not seeing increases, while some others which reopened prematurely are out of control (those States are not hitting all time highs).
Last edited by Finn_Jarber; 07-10-2020 at 05:49 AM..
If the average number of daily deaths related to COVID-19 exceed previous highs, Trumpers will say its because the reports are biased. They want the kids back in school, even if that means thousands of the kids dying from COVID.
OP is wrong. Deaths are way down. They can't even call it a pandemic anymore.
He's wrong because he asked a question? Or he's wrong because he posted facts?
I think the death rate will climb back up, but not necessarily to April's death rate. We have a lot more positive cases. You don't test positive on Monday and die the next day. From what I'm reading, for a patient that winds up in the hospital is usually home for about 7-10 days before the virus causes shortness of breath and other issues require hospital care. Then they are in the ICU for about 2-3 weeks.
If we look at the 7-day average, we started to see an inflection point (where the trend changed from downwards to upwards) in the cases per day around June 19th. We are about 3 weeks out from that increase in cases. The increase in the death rate starting this week coincides with the ~3 week period from a positive test to death that we've seen before. So, given that for the past 3 weeks the number of daily cases has gone up nearly 3 fold, I expect the death rate to go about 3 fold.
The daily death count was around 600 before. It'll probably go to 1800/day. If we get to 100,000 cases per day at some point, I expect about 3 weeks later to start hitting 2500+ deaths per day.
He's wrong because he asked a question? Or he's wrong because he posted facts?
I think the death rate will climb back up, but not necessarily to April's death rate. We have a lot more positive cases. You don't test positive on Monday and die the next day. From what I'm reading, for a patient that winds up in the hospital is usually home for about 7-10 days before the virus causes shortness of breath and other issues require hospital care. Then they are in the ICU for about 2-3 weeks.
If we look at the 7-day average, we started to see an inflection point (where the trend changed from downwards to upwards) in the cases per day around June 19th. We are about 3 weeks out from that increase in cases. The increase in the death rate starting this week coincides with the ~3 week period from a positive test to death that we've seen before. So, given that for the past 3 weeks the number of daily cases has gone up nearly 3 fold, I expect the death rate to go about 3 fold.
The daily death count was around 600 before. It'll probably go to 1800/day. If we get to 100,000 cases per day at some point, I expect about 3 weeks later to start hitting 2500+ deaths per day.
Yeah probably, the death tolls in April were a direct result of the pathetic job NY and the surrounding states did, now states that successfully "flattened the curve" will be hitting their peaks and there are more of them so the overall toll is likely to be higher. It's no reason to panic, but political opportunists will try to create that panic anyway. Anything to hurt the country.
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